Sunspot Time Series – Relations Inferred from the Location of the Longest Spotless Segments

Spotless days (i.e., days when no sunspots are observed on the Sun) occur during the interval between the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and the rising phase of the new sunspot cycle, being greatest in number and of longest continuous length near a new cycle minimum. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the longest spotless segment (LSS) and examine its statistical relation to selected characteristic points in the sunspot time series (STS), such as the occurrences of first spotless day and sunspot maximum. The analysis has revealed statistically significant relations that appear to be of predictive value. For example, for Cycle 24 the last spotless day during its rising phase should be about August 2012 (± 9.1 months), the daily maximum sunspot number should be about 227 (± 50; occurring about January 2014±9.5 months), and the maximum Gaussian smoothed sunspot number should be about 87 (± 25; occurring about July 2014). Using the Gaussian-filtered values, slightly earlier dates of August 2011 and March 2013 are indicated for the last spotless day and sunspot maximum for Cycle 24, respectively.     

Environmental and land use factors affecting phosphate hysteresis patterns of stream water during flood events (Carpathian Foothills,Poland)

Flood events play a substantial role in the circulation of catchment phosphate (PO₄^3?). The purpose of the research was to analyze the factors determining PO₄^3? hysteresis patterns (direction and width) during four types of floods: short and long rainfall floods and snowmelt floods on frozen and thawed soil. The research took place in small catchments (forested, agricultural, mixed‐use) in the Carpathian Foothills in Poland. Anticlockwise hysteresis was identified in the forested catchment during short and long rainfall floods. Under the same conditions, the clockwise direction was observed in the agricultural catchment. In the mixed‐use catchment, the direction of PO₄^3? hysteresis loops was various, driven by the share of water flowing from each part of the catchment. For snowmelt floods, the PO₄^3? hysteresis pattern was similar in all the streams studied (usually clockwise). The direction of PO₄^3? hysteresis loops depends on water circulation patterns, which are determined by the different influx times of particular runoff components. The stream recharge mechanism during a flood event is affected both by the factor initiating the event (precipitation, snowmelt) as well as by land use in the given catchment. Hysteresis loop width was determined by the pool of PO₄^3? in a given catchment during the time period immediately preceding a flood event as well as by the quantity of PO₄^3? flushed out of the soil. The greater a catchment's pool of PO₄^3? and the greater its ability to flush PO₄^3? out of the soil and into surface flow, the wider the hysteresis loops. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of hydrological and hydraulic models for hydrological data transfer

This paper presents an application of hydrological and hydraulic models for transferring instantaneous discharges from a water gauge station to budgeting sites on rivers. Calculations were done using the following models: MIKE NAM rainfall-runoff model and a hydrodynamic MIKE 11 HD model. The simulations were carried out for the catchment of Warta River and its tributaries for the multiyear period 1999–2009.     

Site specific prediction equations for peak acceleration of ground motion due to earthquakes induced by underground mining in Legnica-Głogów Copper District in Poland

Ground motion database from the region of ?elazny Most tailings pond, the largest in Europe ore-flotation waste repository, is used to identify ground motion prediction equations (GMPE-s) for peak horizontal and peak vertical acceleration. A GMPE model including both geometrical spreading and anelastic damping terms cannot be correctly identified and the model with only spreading term is accepted. The analysis of variance of this model’s residuals with station location as grouping variable indicates that station locations contribute significantly to the observed ground motion variability. Therefore, a site specific GMPE model with relative site amplifications is assessed. Despite short distances among stations, the amplification considerably vary from point to point, up to 1.8 times for the horizontal and 3.5 times for the vertical peak amplitude. The model including site effects enhances GMPE-s fit to observations, explains more than 60% dependent variables variability and correctly accounts for site effects.     

Groundwater quality as a geoindicator of organochlorine pesticide contamination after pesticide tomb reclamation: a case study of Franciszkowo, northwestern Poland

The need of surface soil removal during reclamation of the former underground landfills makes environmental monitoring difficult to perform. Environmental quality assessment after reclamation is very important because it provides information about: (1) the efficiency of remediation, (2) the rate of biodegradation of contaminants which were not removed during reclamation works and (3) the possible migration of contaminants from soil and permeable host rocks to surface waters and groundwaters. The concept of geoindicators, which was introduced to facilitate the assessment of environmental changes, can help assess environmental quality at sites previously subjected to reclamation. The groundwater quality is usually used as a geoindicator of inorganic contaminants. This concept was applied to find changes in organochlorine pesticide concentrations in groundwaters after toxic pesticide burial ground reclamation. The aim of this study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and their metabolites in groundwaters at the former pesticide landfill site after its remediation. The study showed that very high concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and their metabolites in a contaminated soil had a small influence on pesticide concentrations in groundwaters and that this influence decreased in time. It has been 2 years since reclamation of the landfill took place, and the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in groundwaters dropped to acceptable levels within the current environmental quality standards.     

Soil gas composition above gas deposits and perspective structures of the Carpathian Foredeep,SE Poland

In 2001 a surface geochemical survey was carried out in the Carpathian Foredeep, in the area between Jaros?aw and Radymno (SE Poland) where multihorizon gas deposits were discovered. These deposits accumulate microbial CH₄ with small amounts of N₂ and higher molecular weight gaseous hydrocarbons. Soil–gas composition in the hydrocarbon fields in the study area is relatively different from the original composition of natural gas occurring in the subsurface reservoir. In 449 analyzed soil gas samples collected from 1.2 m depth relatively low concentrations were found for CH₄ (median value 2.2 ppm) and its homologues (median value of total alkanes C₂–C₄ – 0.02 ppm). Alkenes were encountered in 36.3% of the analyzed samples (mean value of total alkenes C₂–C₄ – 0.015 ppm) together with distinctly higher concentrations of H₂ (maximum value – 544 ppm, mean value – 42 ppm) and CO₂ (maximum value – 10.26 vol.%, mean value – 2.27 vol.%). Individual, very high concentrations of CH₄ (up to about 35 vol.%) resulted from sub-surface biochemical reactions whereas higher alkanes detected in soil gases (up to about 68 ppm) originated from deep gas accumulations. Both the H₂ and alkenes may be indirect indicators of deep hydrocarbon accumulations. Carbon dioxide may also be useful for hydrocarbon exploration, revealing increased concentrations in those sampling sites where CH₄ concentrations are strongly depleted, presumably due to bacterial oxidation. These relationships are valid only for the study area and should not be extended as an universal principle.     

Studies of aerosols advected to coastal areas with the use of remote techniques

This paper presents the results of the studies of aerosol optical properties measured using lidars and sun photometers. We describe two case studies of the combined measurements made in two coastal zones in Crete in 2006 and in Rozewie on the Baltic Sea in 2009. The combination of lidar and sun photometer measurements provides comprehensive information on both the total aerosol optical thickness in the entire atmosphere as well as the vertical structure of aerosol optical properties. Combination of such information with air mass back-trajectories and data collected at stations located on the route of air masses provides complete picture of the aerosol variations in the study area both vertically and horizontally. We show that such combined studies are especially important in the coastal areas where depending on air mass advection directions and altitudes the influence of fine or coarse mode (in this case possibly sea-salt) particles on the vertical structure of aerosol optical properties is an important issue to consider.     

Study of vertical structure of aerosol optical properties with sun photometers and ceilometer during the MACRON campaign in 2007

This paper presents the measurements of a vertical structure of aerosol optical properties performed during the MACRON (Maritime Aerosol, Clouds and Radiation Observation in Norway) campaign, which took place in July and August 2007 at ALOMAR observatory on Andøya island (69.279°N, 16.009°E, elevation 380 m a.s.l.). The mean value of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 500 nm during campaign was 0.12. Significant increase of the AOT above longtime mean value was observed on 7 and 8 August 2007 when the AOT exceeded 0.4 at 500 nm. Analyses of back trajectories show the aerosol transported from over Africa and Central Europe. The aerosol extinction coefficient obtained from the synergy of ceilometer and sun photometer observations reached 0.05–0.08 km^?1 (at 1064 nm) in the dust layer. The single scattering albedo at the ALOMAR observatory decreased during the dust episode to 0.93–0.94, which indicates some absorptive aerosols in the lower PBL.     

Influence of Elevation Data Source on 2D Hydraulic Modelling

The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of the source of various elevation data on hydraulic modelling in open channels. In the research, digital terrain models from different datasets were evaluated and used in two-dimensional hydraulic models. The following aerial and satellite elevation data were used to create the representation of terrain–digital terrain model: airborne laser scanning, image matching, elevation data collected in the LPIS, EuroDEM, and ASTER GDEM. From the results of five 2D hydrodynamic models with different input elevation data, the maximum depth and flow velocity of water were derived and compared with the results of the most accurate ALS data. For such an analysis a statistical evaluation and differences between hydraulic modelling results were prepared. The presented research proved the importance of the quality of elevation data in hydraulic modelling and showed that only ALS and photogrammetric data can be the most reliable elevation data source in accurate 2D hydraulic modelling.