The Uncertain Value of Perfect ENSO Phase Forecasts: Stochastic Agricultural Prices and Intra-Phase Climatic Variations

Climate and crop yield variability associated with El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now predictable within limits. This predictability suggests a potential to tailor agricultural management to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions and to take advantage of favorable conditions. However, improved climate predictions may benefit society only with parallel advances in our ability to use this knowledge. We show that the value that will accrue to any given actor from an ENSO phase forecast should be viewed not as a known number but instead as a random draw from a distribution, even when the forecast is always correct. Forecast value depends on the highly variable contexts in which forecasts are used. Randomness in forecast value has significant implications for choices made by forecasters, forecast users and policy makers. To show randomness, we estimate potential economic values of ENSO forecasts for agricultural producers based on two realistic assumptions: the crop prices farmers receive are uncertain; and within an ENSO phase, the actual climate is variable in ways that affect profits. The use of synthetic weather and crop price series, with crop simulation models, helps show the range and likelihood of climate forecast value.     

Testing geomorphic signal of active normal faulting: The case of the Cittanova Fault (Calabria,southern Italy)

Extracting tectonic signals from the landscape is an important challenge for constraining the style and rate of deformation associated with active faults, especially where their displacement history cannot be independently determined. Based on previous paleoseismological data coupled with new geomorphological field work and ¹⁴C dating of geomorphic markers, we analysed the geomorphic signal of the along‐strike differential throw of the Cittanova Fault in southern Calabria (Italy), the recent activity of which is already well documented and constrained. Through DTM‐derived stream power law parameters (SL and χ), we provide evidence of drainage network disequilibrium and reorganization in response to fault growth and deformation style. Furthermore, a methodological test of the reliability of the χ metric as a proxy for the differential throw along the strike of active normal faults provided good preliminary results, consistent with a strong inverse linear correlation with fault throw. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biochemical Responses of European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) to the Stress Induced by Off Shore Experimental Seismic Prospecting

The paper reports the results of an experimental seismic survey in the open sea by an air gun, carried out to evaluate the effects of air gun acoustic waves on marine animals. Air gun blast exposition was found to have a marked influence on confined Dicentrarchus labrax. Our data, in fact, demonstrated a biochemical response to acoustic stress induced by air gun blasts. Variations of cortisol, glucose, lactate, AMP, ADP, ATP and cAMP in different tissues of D. labrax, indicate that fish have a typical primary and secondary stress response after air gun detonations. Radiography indicates that air gun blasts do not induce any macroscopic effect on skeletal apparatus. The variations of biochemical parameters returned within physiological values within 72 h indicating a rapid recovery of homeostasis after acoustic stress and no mortality was observed.     

The Influence of Land Cover on Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Elevations in Low‐relief Areas

The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the first relatively high spatial resolution near‐global digital elevation dataset, possesses great utility for a wide array of environmental applications worldwide. This article concerns the accuracy of SRTM in low‐relief areas with heterogeneous vegetation cover. Three questions were addressed about low‐relief SRTM topographic representation: to what extent are errors spatially autocorrelated, and how should this influence sample design? Is spatial resolution or production method more important for explaining elevation differences? How dominant is the association of vegetation cover with SRTM elevation error? Two low‐relief sites in Louisiana, USA, were analyzed to determine the nature and impact of SRTM error in such areas. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were employed as reference, and SRTM elevations were contrasted with the US National Elevation Dataset (NED). Spatial autocorrelation of errors persisted hundreds of meters spatially in low‐relief topography; production method was more critical than spatial resolution, and elevation error due to vegetation canopy effects could actually dominate the SRTM representation of the landscape. Indeed, low‐lying, forested, riparian areas may be represented as substantially higher than surrounding agricultural areas, leading to an inverted terrain model.     

Predicted ground motion after the L��Aquila 2009 earthquake (Italy, M w 6.3): input spectra for seismic microzoning

After the April 6th 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (M _w 6.3), where 306 people died and a further 60,000 were displaced, seismic microzoning investigations have been carried out for towns affected by a macroseismic intensity equal to or greater than 7 MCS. Based upon seismotectonic data, historical seismicity and strong motion records, we defined input spectra to be used in the numerical simulations of seismic microzoning in four key municipalities, including the town of L’Aquila. We adopted two main approaches: uniform hazard response spectra are obtained by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment introducing some time-dependency for individual faults on the study area; a deterministic design spectrum is computed from magnitude/distance pairs extracted by a stationary probabilistic analysis of historical intensities. The uniform hazard spectrum of the present Italian building code represents the third, less restrictive, response spectrum to be used for the numerical simulations in seismic microzoning. Strong motions recordings of the main shock of the L’Aquila sequence enlighten the critical role played by both the local response and distances metric for sites located above a seismogenic fault; however, these time-histories are compatible with the uncertainties of a deterministic utilization of ground motion predictive equations. As recordings at very near field are rare, they cannot be neglected while defining the seismic input. Disaggregation on the non-Possonian seismotectonic analysis and on the stationary site-intensity estimates reach very similar results in magnitude-distance pairs identification; we interpret this convergence as a validation of the geology-based model by historical observations.     

Radio frequency self-interference from a data processing centre at a radio telescope site

Apart from externally generated Radio Frequency Interference (RFI), the occurrence of self-interference is a major concern at any modern radio telescope site. Antenna servo motor controllers, data acquisition processors, and fast computing capabilities operate very close to extremely sensitive and wideband radio astronomical receivers. In this paper, we present a set of measurements of the RFI level generated by a cluster of computers that will be installed at the site of the Sardinia Radio Telescope (SRT). The measured levels are compared to Recommendation ITU-R RA.769-2, which gives the threshold levels for interference detrimental to radio astronomy observations. Our analysis shows that, with proper shielding of the noisiest devices, it will be possible to preserve the present excellent RFI conditions of the SRT site.     

Power spectrum analysis of the ESO Slice Project galaxy redshift survey

We measure the power spectrum of the galaxy distribution in the ESO Slice Project (ESP) galaxy redshift survey. We develop a technique to describe the survey window function analytically, and then deconvolve it from the measured power spectrum using a variant of the Lucy method. We test the whole deconvolution procedure on ESP mock catalogues drawn from large N -body simulations, and find that it is reliable for recovering the correct amplitude and shape of P ( k ) at k >0.065  h  Mpc⁻¹. In general, the technique is applicable to any survey composed of a collection of circular fields with an arbitrary pattern on the sky, as typical of surveys based on fibre spectrographs. The estimated power spectrum has a well-defined power-law shape k ⁿ with n ≃−2.2 for k ≥0.2  h  Mpc⁻¹, and a smooth bend to a flatter shape ( n ≃−1.6) for smaller k . The smallest wavenumber where a meaningful reconstruction can be performed ( k ∼0.06  h  Mpc⁻¹) does not allow us to explore the range of scales where other power spectra seem to show a flattening and hint at a turnover. We also find, by a direct comparison of the Fourier transforms, that the estimate of the two-point correlation function ξ ( s ) is much less sensitive to the effect of a problematic window function, such as that of the ESP, than the power spectrum. Comparison with other surveys shows an excellent agreement with estimates from blue-selected surveys. In particular, the ESP power spectrum is virtually indistinguishable from that of the Durham–UKST survey over the common range of k , an indirect confirmation of the quality of the deconvolution technique applied.     

Radio observations of early-type galaxies with dust lanes

Radio and optical images of early-type galaxies with dust lanes have been analyzed in order to investigate the characteristics of the radio emission and to compare it with their properties at other frequencies. Except three galaxies, the remaining sources of our sample have diffuse radio emission, which does not extend beyond the stellar disk. The radio structures are small and weak (linear sizes in the range 2–10 kpc and radio powers in the range 5×10²⁰–5×10²¹W Hz^–1). Our preliminary results show that in a minority of cases (the most powerful radio sources) radio emission originates in the associated galactic nuclei, where a massive black hole is harboured. On the contrary, in the less powerful among our radio galaxies, sources originating from stellar phenomena may play and important role. We have classified the galaxies with respect to the dust lane morphology, comparing it with the radio emission. The sample is too small in order to reach firm conclusions, but the lack of radio sources in early-type galaxies with dust lanes along the galaxy minor axis seems to suggest that the accretion of material does not reach the conditions necessary to trigger nuclear activity.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.