Integrated assessment on sea water quality based on the fuzzy neural network

根据俚岛镇海湾22个海洋观测点的水质监测数据,依据人工神经网络与模糊理论,建立模糊神经网络模型,对研究区海水水质进行了综合评价.结果表明,区域内40.91％的采样点属于Ⅰ类海水水质标准,其余为Ⅱ类海水水质.其中,水质Ⅱ类区位于临络湾与俚岛湾的半封闭海域,因该区造船业对水体造成污染且海水对流强度较弱,不利于污染物的扩散;而海水水质Ⅰ类区域靠近黄海,工业活动较少,水体对流较强,利于污染物扩散.     

保定市典型多层砖混结构震害预测分析

将保定市42栋典型多层砖混结构分别按照年代、用途、层数分类,采用结构易损性方法进行震害预测分析,得出各自震害矩阵,并以平均抗震能力指数评价其抗震能力。分析结论可为保定市多层砖混群体震害预测提供参考。     

利用Himawari-8高频次监测太湖蓝藻水华动态

新一代静止气象卫星Himawari-8以其10 min/次的高观测频次,为连续动态监测蓝藻水华提供了有力的数据支持.基于太湖实地光谱测量资料,提出Himawari-8卫星资料太湖蓝藻水华动态监测方法.以2015年10月2日蓝藻水华发生过程为例,利用连续、多时次Himawari-8资料,动态监测了太湖蓝藻水华的发展变化,分析蓝藻水华的出现、发展和消失,计算蓝藻水华强度的动态变化,认识蓝藻水华程度及变化特征,估算蓝藻水华的动态变化速度.上述分析为研究蓝藻水华的生长消亡过程提供了支持.进一步探讨蓝藻水华动态变化与气象要素的关系,发现在相同的温湿条件下,风场对蓝藻水华的形成、运动和消失有直接的驱动作用.     

龙门山断裂带上“破裂空段”的发震概率研究

本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。     

Improved preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm and application in 3D inversion of gravity-gradiometry data

With the continuous development of full tensor gradiometer (FTG) measurement techniques, three-dimensional (3D) inversion of FTG data is becoming increasingly used in oil and gas exploration. In the fast processing and interpretation of large-scale high-precision data, the use of the graphics processing unit process unit (GPU) and preconditioning methods are very important in the data inversion. In this paper, an improved preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm is proposed by combining the symmetric successive over-relaxation (SSOR) technique and the incomplete Choleksy decomposition conjugate gradient algorithm (ICCG). Since preparing the preconditioner requires extra time, a parallel implement based on GPU is proposed. The improved method is then applied in the inversion of noisecontaminated synthetic data to prove its adaptability in the inversion of 3D FTG data. Results show that the parallel SSOR-ICCG algorithm based on NVIDIA Tesla C2050 GPU achieves a speedup of approximately 25 times that of a serial program using a 2.0 GHz Central Processing Unit (CPU). Real airborne gravity-gradiometry data from Vinton salt dome (southwest Louisiana, USA) are also considered. Good results are obtained, which verifies the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed parallel method in fast inversion of 3D FTG data.     

考虑流固耦合的渡槽结构三维碰撞反应研究

渡槽结构在强烈地震作用下邻梁间发生的碰撞现象易对其输水安全造成重大影响。采用薄壁梁段单元和三维接触-摩擦单元借助FORTRAN程序建立了考虑流固耦合的渡槽结构整体三维碰撞分析模型,并通过工程实例进行了多工况下的地震碰撞反应分析。结果表明,随着槽内水深的增大,渡槽结构的地震反应普遍增大,邻梁碰撞次数、碰撞力和相对转角也随之增大;槽内水体固结和考虑流固耦合的碰撞反应峰值相差不大,但时程曲线差异较大,某些部位水体固结的解会小于流固耦合解,使固结简化的处理偏于不安全。研究结果可供大型渡槽结构抗震设计参考。     

通用型地震前兆通讯控制软件的研制和应用

针对目前"九五"仪器数据采集工作中遇到的问题,应用Visual Basic编制通用型地震前兆通讯控制软件.其主要特点是,微机不需安装通讯控制卡,RS-232串口或网口均可,网络对时服务,并结合日常工作要求新增部分功能.结果发现,效果良好.     

利用非均匀细胞自动机模拟震级与应力降关系

为解释实际观测资料震源破裂过程与自相似(分形)模型的不一致性, 本文基于观测结果, 构建了由81×81个细胞单元组成二维非均匀断层模型, 并通过设计的细胞自动机模拟程序进行了模拟试验。 研究结果表明: 断层结构非均匀性是影响孕震过程特征的重要因素, 而且地震强度分布并非简单的自相似。 随着断层非匀质性增加, 破裂过程出现由相对的脆性破坏向塑性破坏特征变化的趋势。 利用细胞自动机不仅能较好地解释震级-频度关系中的大、 小震级段低头现象, 而且也可解释大震级事件具有相对恒定的应力降, 得到了与实际观测研究相一致的结果。     

The Paleoceanography during the Time with High δ13C of Phanerozoic marine carbonates

Carbon isotopic composition of marine carbonates is a record for various important geological events in the process of earth development and evolution. The carbonates of Carboniferous, Permian and Triassic, as the transition from Paleozoic to Mesozoic-Cenozoic have very high ¹³C value. Taking this as the main point, and combined with the oxygen, strontium isotopic composition in carbonates, distribution of carbonate basin area through geologic time, the correlation of carbon isotopic composition of marine carbonates to sea level change, organic carbon burial flux, exchange of CO₂ content in atmosphere and ocean, and long cycle evolution of the earth ecosystems were approached. The results are shown as follows: ①The interval of ¹³C >3‰ during Phanerozoic was concentrated in Carboniferous, Permian and the beginning of Triassic, but the beginning of Triassic was characterized by higher frequency and larger fluctuations in ¹³C value during a short time, whereas the Carboniferous-Permian presented a continuously stable high ¹³C value, indicating a larger amount of organic carbon accumulation in this time interval. Relatively high ¹⁸O values during this time was also observed, showing a long time of glaciations and cold climate, which suggest a connection among rapid organic carbon burial, cold climate, as well as pCO₂ and pO₂ states of atmosphere. ②The over consumption of atmosphere CO₂ by green plants during the time with high ¹³C of seawater forced CO₂ being transferred from ocean to atmosphere for the balance, but the decrease in the seawater amount and water column pressure caused by the global cooling could weaken dissolution capacity of CO₂ in seawater and carbon storage of marine carbonates, and also reduce the carbonate sedimentary rate and decrease the carbonate basin area globally from Devonian to Carboniferous and Permian. During the middle-late Permian carbonate was widely replaced by siliceous sediments even though in shallow carbonate platform, which resulted in the decrease of marine invertebrates, suggesting the Permian chert event should be global. ③The Phanerozoic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr trend of seawater showed a sharp fall in Permian and drop to a minimum at the end of the Permian, indicting input of strontium from the submarine hydrothermal systems (mantle flux). Such process should accompany with a supplement of CO₂ from deep earth to atmosphere and ocean system, but the process associated with widespread volcanism and rises of earth’s surface temperature pricked up the mass extinction during the time of end Permian. ④Cold climate and increase of continental icecap volume, the amalgamation of northern Africa and Laurentia continentals were the main reasons responsible for the sea level drop, but the water consumption result from the significantly increased accumulation of organic carbon should also be one of the reasons for the sea level drop on the order of tens of meters. ⑤The mass extinction at the end Permian was an inevitable event in the process of earth system adjustment. It was difficult for marine invertebrates to survive because of the continuously rapid burial of organic carbon, and of the decrease of sea water amount and its dissolution ability to CO₂. At last, at the end of Paleozoic, the supplement of CO₂ to atmosphere and ocean by widely magma activities resulted in a high temperature of earth surface and intensified mass extinction.     

广西钦州湾百年来红树林演变的有机碳同位素和孢粉示踪及其影响因素

气候变化和人类活动制约下的红树林演变是一种长时间尺度效应,而沉积物则是记录这种响应的最佳档案。采用古生态学研究思路,选择有效的示踪参数是解读这一档案的有效途径。本文通过广西钦州湾红树林区1根柱状沉积物中有机碳同位素(δ13C)、C/N分析和孢粉鉴定,以沉积物中的红树林源有机碳贡献和红树植物孢粉组合为示踪参数,在210Pb年龄框架构建的基础上,通过对比研究红树林源有机碳贡献和红树孢粉组合特征,揭示百年来钦州湾红树林兴衰和群落演替规律;进而重塑其红树林演变历史:兴盛期(1864-1918年)、衰退期(1918-1968年)和低谷期(1968-2007年),这与土地替代、遥感分析和现场勘测数据较为吻合。结合气候变化和人类活动资料,发现钦州湾红树林的近期衰退主要源于人类活动的影响,尤其是虾塘围垦;而与气候变化关系不大。