Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

苏北盆地泰州组砂岩成岩序列和储集层质量主控因素分析?

基于53口井310余块储集层砂岩样品的分析研究,指出泰州组储集层存在着压实(压溶)、胶结和溶蚀等成岩作用,但在不同位置成岩作用的表现有所不同。海安凹陷以胶结和溶蚀作用为主,压实与压溶作用不太明显;高邮凹陷的压实程度较海安凹陷强烈。压实作用使得高邮凹陷泰州组储集层孔隙度在2 400～2 800 m处于10%左右,而海安凹陷为10%～20%。海安凹陷和高邮凹陷泰州组储集层目前处于中成岩阶段A期。储集层质量主要受原始沉积环境和成岩作用的综合影响。压实作用和胶结作用均可降低孔隙,但当碳酸盐胶结物含量小于15％时,胶结作用对储集层质量影响较小。碳酸盐胶结物和长石颗粒溶蚀形成了大量的粒间溶孔。海安凹陷有利储集层主要分布在西北部和东部三角洲前缘砂体和滑塌浊积扇砂体中,高邮凹陷有利储集层主要分布在南部扇三角洲前缘砂体中。     

Provenance of the Bosnian Flysch

Sandwiched between the Adriatic Carbonate Platform and the Dinaride Ophiolite Zone, the Bosnian Flysch forms a c. 3000 m thick, intensely folded stack of Upper Jurassic to Cretaceous mixed carbonate and siliciclastic sediments in the Dinarides. New petrographic, heavy mineral, zircon U/Pb and fission-track data as well as biostratigraphic evidence allow us to reconstruct the palaeogeology of the source areas of the Bosnian Flysch basin in late Mesozoic times. Middle Jurassic intraoceanic subduction of the Neotethys was shortly followed by exhumation of the overriding oceanic plate. Trench sedimentation was controlled by a dual sediment supply from the sub-ophiolitic high-grade metamorphic soles and from the distal continental margin of the Adriatic plate. Following obduction onto Adria, from the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition onwards a vast clastic wedge (Vranduk Formation) was developed in front of the leading edge, fed by continental basement units of Adria that experienced Early Cretaceous synsedimentary cooling, by the overlying ophiolitic thrust sheets and by redeposited elements of coeval Urgonian facies reefs grown on the thrust wedge complex. Following mid-Cretaceous deformation and thermal overprint of the Vranduk Formation, the depozone migrated further towards SW and received increasing amounts of redeposited carbonate detritus released from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform margin (Ugar Formation). Subordinate siliciclastic source components indicate changing source rocks on the upper plate, with ophiolites becoming subordinate. The zone of the continental basement previously affected by the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous thermal imprint has been removed; instead, the basement mostly supplied detritus with a wide range of pre-Jurassic cooling ages. However, a c. 80 Ma, largely synsedimentary cooling event is also recorded by the Ugar Formation, that contrasts the predominantly Early Cretaceous cooling of the Adriatic basement and suggests, at least locally, a fast exhumation.     

北京市有机氯农药填图与风险评价

采用1个样/km2的密度、1个分析组合样/16km2的方法,对北京市784km2范围内的土壤、大气干湿沉降物、大气颗粒物中HCH、DDT的含量和空间分布特征进行有机氯农药填图.查明2000年北京市地表土壤HCH和DDT的平均含量分别为8.80±11.83ng/g、108.99±301.90ng/g.2006年大气干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT平均含量分别为10.09±9.60ng/g、12.99±13.51ng/g,HCH和DDT的年沉降通量分别为996.57±939.96g/a·km2、1291.53±1342.28g/a·km2.2006年大气颗粒物PM10和PM2.5中的HCH含量分别为0.294±0.205ng/m3和0.217±0.137ng/m3,DDT的平均含量分别为1.037±1.301ng/m3和0.522±0.773ng/m3,显著高于2002-2003年度大气颗粒物中HCH(PM100.01786ng/m3,PM250.01731ng/m3)和DDT(PM100.01672ng/m3,PM2.50.02353ng/m3)的含量,表明北京市或周边地区仍在使用含HCH和DDT化学成分的农药.以2000年北京地表土壤和2006年大气干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT的含量为基础,对2020年土壤中HCH和DDT的时空演变的预测显示,即使干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT的沉降通量每年以5%的速率递减,到2020年土壤中HCH和DDT的环境质量仍不能显著改善,而控制和削减北京及周边地区含HCH和DDT成分农药的使用将是改善北京地表土壤环境质量的关键措施.     

Long-Term Changes in Water Quality and Productivity in the Patuxent River Estuary: 1985 to 2003

We conducted a quantitative assessment of estuarine ecosystem responses to reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sewage treatment facilities and to variability in freshwater flow and nonpoint nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary. We analyzed a 19-year dataset of water quality conditions, nutrient loading, and climatic forcing for three estuarine regions and also computed monthly rates of net production of dissolved O₂ and physical transport of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) using a salt- and water-balance model. Point-source loading of DIN and DIP to the estuary declined by 40–60% following upgrades to sewage treatment plants and correlated with parallel decreases in DIN and DIP concentrations throughout the Patuxent. Reduced point-source nutrient loading and concentration resulted in declines in phytoplankton chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and light-saturated carbon fixation, as well as in bottom-layer O₂ consumption for upper regions of the estuary. Despite significant reductions in seaward N transport from the middle to lower estuary, chl-a, turbidity, and surface-layer net O₂ production increased in the lower estuary, especially during summer. This degradation of water quality in the lower estuary appears to be linked to a trend of increasing net inputs of DIN into the estuary from Chesapeake Bay and to above-average river flow during the mid-1990s. In addition, increased abundance of Mnemiopsis leidyi significantly reduced copepod abundance during summer from 1990 to 2002, which favored increases in chl-a and allowed a shift in total N partitioning from DIN to particulate organic nitrogen. These analyses illustrate (1) the value of long-term monitoring data, (2) the need for regional scale nutrient management that includes integrated estuarine systems, and (3) the potential water quality impacts of altered coastal food webs.     

Tracing the exhumation of the Eclogite Zone (Tauern Window,Eastern Alps) by <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of white mica in eclogites

New radiometric ages from the Subpenninic nappes (Eclogite Zone and Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe, Tauern Window) show that phengites formed under eclogite-facies metamorphic conditions retain their initial isotopic signature, even when associated lithologies were overprinted by greenschist- to amphibolite-facies metamorphism. Different stages of the eclogite-facies evolution can be dated provided ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating is combined with micro-structural analyses. An age of 39 Ma from the Rote Wand – Modereck Nappe is interpreted to be close to the burial age of this unit. Eclogite deformation within the Eclogite Zone started at the pressure peak along distinct shear zones, and prevailed along the exhumation path. An age of ca. 38 Ma is only observed for eclogites not affected by subsequent deformation and is interpreted as maximum age due to the possible influence of homogenously distributed excess argon. During exhumation deformation was localised along distinct mylonitic shear zones. This stage is mainly characterised by the formation of dynamically recrystallized omphacite2 and phengite. Deformation resulted in the resetting of the Ar isotopic system within the recrystallized white mica. Flat argon release spectra showing ages of 32 Ma within mylonites record the timing of cooling along the exhumation path, and the emplacement onto the Venediger Nappe. Ar-release patterns and ³⁶Ar/⁴⁰Ar vs.³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar isotope correlation analyses indicate no significant ⁴⁰Ar-loss after initial closure, and only a negligible incorporation of excess argon. From the pressure peak onwards, eclogitic conditions prevailed for almost 8–10 Ma.     

Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

Slope inclinometers for landslides

Slope inclinometers/indicators are used to determine the magnitude, rate, direction, depth, and type of landslide movement. This information is usually vitally important for understanding the cause, behavior, and remediation of a landslide. However, many inclinometer measurements fail to achieve these intended aims because of lack of appreciation of the many factors that need to be correctly implemented during installation, monitoring, and data reduction to yield useful data. This paper presents some guidelines for understanding, installing, and interpreting slope inclinometers and presents three case histories that illustrate some of the pitfalls that can develop if these guidelines are not followed.     

大巴山西段高川地体构造变形特征及其意义

勉略缝合带华北与华南大陆于印支期完成拼合的主要拼接带,在中国大陆的形成与演化中占据重要地位。但是,勉略带的东、西延伸,至今没有确定的结论,尤其陕西省勉县以东到湖北随州一带,还没有找到确凿的缝合带的证据。现今一些重要的文章多认为勉略带在勉县以东到达宁陕县两河口之后向南转折,沿着高川岩片的位置顺大巴山弧形构造带向东延伸到湖北随州一带。然而,本文的研究表明,高川岩片是一个独立于大巴山构造带的外来地质体,并称之为高川地体。高川地体是一个由近南北向右行走滑断层与轴向近南北向的走滑剪切褶皱构造组成的右行走滑构造系统,作者认为,它是大巴山冲断推覆构造向南推覆过程中,被从原勉略缝合带中挤过来的一片,它仅仅是被挟持在大巴山冲断—推覆构造带与大巴山前陆构造带之间的地壳浅层地质体,高川地体现在的位置不能代表勉略带向东的延伸。因此,大巴山弧形构造带也不是中国南北大陆最终碰撞拼贴的位置     

基于贡献权重迭加法的滑坡风险区划

贡献权重迭加法是对滑坡本底因子和承灾体因子在滑坡发育中的贡献率进行统计后,通过贡献率均值化、规一化处理,利用权重转换模型计算出每一个因子内部的权重——自权重W和因子相互之间的权重——互权重W＇。将滑坡因子、承灾体因子和两者的自权重、互权重分别相乘迭加,得到滑坡危险度和易损度区划结果,再将2项结果相乘得出滑坡风险区划。