A straightforward estimation of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 23

Using the annual number of geomagnetically quiet days (aa < 20 γ) for the year after the solar minimum, this precursor method predicts that the maximum sunspot number for cycle 23 will be 140 + 32, indicating that cycle 23 will be similar to cycles 21 and 22.     

The solar magnetic flux mid-term periodicities and the solar dynamo

We investigate here the fluctuations in the total, open and closed solar magnetic flux (SMF) for the period 1971–1999 by means of the maximum entropy method in the frequency range 5×10⁻⁹–10⁻⁷ Hz (6 yr to 120 days). We use monthly data for the total, open and closed magnetic solar fluxes. Periodicities found in the series are similar showing that there is some relationship between the fluxes. The most important finding of this work is the existence of fluctuations at around 1.3 and 1.7 yr in the SMF with alternating importance during consecutive even and odd solar cycles. These fluctuations are directly related with variations present in cosmic rays, solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity indexes. A quasi-triennial periodicity previously found in sunspots and other solar phenomena is also of importance. The SMF is generated by the action of the solar dynamo; therefore, it is through the magnetic flux that the solar dynamo influences several heliospheric phenomena.     

Peat depth as a control on moss water availability under evaporative stress

Northern peatlands are a vital component of the global carbon cycle, containing large stores of soil organic carbon and acting as a long‐term carbon sink. Moss productivity is an important factor in determining whether these wetlands will retain this function under future climatic conditions. Research on unsaturated water flow in peatlands, which controls moss productivity during periods of evaporative stress, has focused on relatively deep bog systems. However, shallower peatlands and marginal connective wetlands can be essential components of many landscape mosaics. In order to better understand factors influencing moss productivity, water balance simulations using HYDRUS‐1D were run for different soil profile depths, compositions, and antecedent moisture conditions. Our results demonstrate a bimodal distribution of peatland realizations, either primarily conserving water by limiting evapotranspiration or maximizing moss productivity. For sustained periods of evaporative stress, both deep water storage and a shallow initial water table delay the onset of high vegetative stress, thus maximizing moss productivity. A total depth of sand and peat of 0.8 m is identified as the threshold above which increasing peat depth has no effect on changing vegetative stress response. In contrast, wetlands with shallow peat deposits (less than 0.5 m thick) are least able to buffer prolonged periods of evaporation due to limited labile water storage and will thus quickly experience vegetative stress and so limit evaporation and conserve water. With a predicted increase in the frequency and size of rain events in continental North America, the moss productivity of shallow wetland systems may increase, but also greater moisture availability will increase the likelihood they remain as wetlands in a changing climate.     

Geoacoustic character,sedimentology and chronology of a cross-shelf Holocene sediment deposit off Cabo Frio,Brazil (southwest Atlantic Ocean)

The Cabo Frio region in the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast coast of Brazil, is characterized by a local coastal upwelling system and converging littoral sediment transport systems that are deflected offshore at Cabo Frio, as a consequence of which a thick cross-shelf sediment deposit has developed over time. To investigate the evolution of this muddy deposit, geophysical, sedimentological and geochemical data from four sediment cores (3.8–4.1 m in length) recovered in water depths between 88 and 141 m were analyzed. The high-resolution seismic data show variable sediment thicknesses ranging from 1 to 20 m, comprising two sedimentary units separated by a high-impedance layer at a depth of about 10 m below the seafloor at the coring sites. According to the available age datings, the upper sedimentary unit is late Pleistocene to Holocene in age, whereas the lower unit (not dated) must, by implication, be entirely Pleistocene in age. The boomer-seismic reflection signal can be divided into three echo-types, namely transparent (inner shelf), stratified (middle shelf) and reflective (outer shelf), each type seemingly related to the local sediment composition. The upper 4 m of the upper sedimentary unit is dominated by silty sediment on the middle shelf, and by upward-fining sediments (silty sand to sandy silt) on the inner and outer shelf. The downcore trends of P-wave velocity, gamma-ray density and acoustic impedance are largely similar, but generally reversed to those of water and organic carbon contents. Total organic carbon contents increase with decreasing mean grain size, periodic fluctuations suggesting temporal changes in the regional hydrodynamics and primary productivity fuelled by the local upwelling system. The reconstruction of sedimentation rates in the course of the Holocene is based on 35 AMS age datings of organic material recovered from variable downcore depths. These range from a maximum of 13.3 cm/decade near the base of the inner shelf core (7.73–7.70 ka BP) to generally very low values (<0.11 cm/century) over the last thousand years in all cores. Over the last 6 ka there appear to have been three distinct sedimentation peaks, one between 6 and 5 ka BP, another between 4 and 3 ka PB, and one around 1 ka BP. Due to different time intervals between dates, not every peak is equally well resolved in all four cores. Based on the similar sedimentology of the inner and outer shelf cores, an essentially identical sedimentation model is proposed to have been active in both cases, albeit at different times. Thus, already during the last glacial maximum, alongshore sediment transport was deflected offshore by a change in shoreline orientation caused by the Cabo Frio structural high. The source of terrigenous material was probably a barrier-island complex that was subsequently displaced landward in the course of sea-level rise until it stabilized some 6.5 ka BP along the modern coast.     

Planform dynamics of the Iquitos anabranching structure in the Peruvian Upper Amazon River

The upper reach of the Amazon River has a very dynamic morphology, with the highest rates of migration observed in the entire Amazon River. It has an anabranching channel pattern which alternates between a condition of single channel and anabranching structures; in particular, the anabranching structure near Iquitos City shows an interesting channel behavior. Its channels migrate at different rates, where there are processes of narrowing and widening, and also collision and development of new channels. The temporal evolution of the Iquitos anabranching structure is described during the period from 1985 to 2014. The study is carried out by using satellite images to track the migration patterns, which are contrasted to the underlying geological units in the valley. Bathymetry of the structure and several velocity transects were obtained during a field campaign prior to the 2012 historic flood event. This information allowed for numerical modeling in order to compute the hydrodynamic flow field that complements the temporal analysis, aiming to understand the planform migration patterns after the 2012 flood event. It is observed that the geological units play an important role in modulating the migration rates and planform development of the channels. The channels in the structure are in contention to be the main channel, which become the secondary channel after migration. This causes the channels to experience a rise in bed elevation and narrowing of the channel itself; if this trend continues for several more years, these channels will detach from the Iquitos anabranching structure, thus forming paleo‐channels. This geomorphic process is important for horizontal and vertical soil heterogeneity along the floodplain. In general, the analysis shows a complex interaction between the underlying geological units, flow structure, morphology of the bed and planform migration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Community structure and nutrition of deep methane-seep macrobenthos from the North Pacific (Aleutian) Margin and the Gulf of Mexico (Florida Escarpment)

Methane seeps occur at depths extending to over 7000 m along the world's continental margins, but there is little information about the infaunal communities inhabiting sediments of seeps deeper than 3000 m. Biological sampling was carried out off Unimak Island (3200–3300 m) and Kodiak Island (4500 m) on the Aleutian margin, Pacific Ocean and along the Florida Escarpment (3300 m) in the Gulf of Mexico to investigate the community structure and nutrition of macrofauna at these sites. We addressed whether there are characteristic infaunal communities common to the deep‐water seeps or to the specific habitats (clam beds, pogonophoran fields, and microbial mats) studied here, and ask how these differ from background communities or from shallow‐seep settings sampled previously. We also investigated, using stable isotopic signatures, the utilization of chemosynthetically fixed and methane‐derived organic matter by macrofauna from different regions and habitats. Within seep sites, macrofaunal densities were the greatest in the Florida microbial mats (20,961 ± 11,618 ind·m⁻²), the lowest in the Florida pogonophoran fields (926 ± 132 ind·m⁻²), and intermediate in the Unimak and Kodiak seep habitats. Seep macrofaunal densities differed from those in nearby non‐seep sediments only in Florida mat habitats, where a single, abundant species of hesionid polychaete comprised 70% of the macrofauna. Annelids were the dominant taxon (>60%) at all sites and habitats except in Florida background sediments (33%) and Unimak pogonophoran fields (27%). Macrofaunal diversity (H′) was lower at the Florida than the Alaska seeps, with a trend toward reduced richness in clam bed relative to pogonophoran field or non‐seep sediments. Community composition differences between seep and non‐seep sediments were evident in each region except for the Unimak margin, but pogonophoran and clam bed macrofaunal communities did not differ from one another in Alaska. Seep δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N signatures were lighter for seep than non‐seep macrofauna in all regions, indicating use of chemosynthetically derived carbon. The lightest δ¹³C values (average of species’ means) were observed at the Florida escarpment (−42.8‰). We estimated that on average animal tissues had up to 55% methane‐derived carbon in Florida mats, 31–44% in Florida clam beds and Kodiak clam beds and pogonophoran fields, and 9–23% in Unimak seep habitats. However, some taxa such as hesionid and capitellid polychaetes exhibited tremendous intraspecific δ¹³C variation (>30‰) between patch types. Overall we found few characteristic communities or features common to the three deep‐water seeps (>3000 m), but common properties across habitats (mat, clam bed, pogonophorans), independent of location or water depth. In general, macrofaunal densities were lower (except at Florida microbial mats), community structure was similar, and reliance on chemosynthesis was greater than observed in shallower seeps off California and Oregon.     

Photocatalytic performance of TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and WO<Subscript>3</Subscript>/TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> nanoparticles coated on urban green infrastructure materials in removing nitrogen oxide

This study investigated the performance of UV light active TiO₂ and UV–visible light active WO₃/TiO₂ nanoparticles as air purifying materials that can be potentially applied to urban green infrastructures such as rain gardens and pervious pavements. Using a laboratory-scale continuous gas flow photoreactor, the removal efficiency of gaseous nitrogen oxide (NO _x ) by two different photocatalytic nanoparticles coated on natural zeolites and pervious concrete blocks was evaluated. The results showed that the TiO₂- and WO₃/TiO₂-coated zeolites are excellent photoactive materials providing enhanced air purification function (~95% removal efficiency of NO _x ) under UV and UV–visible light irradiation, respectively. In contrast, both of the TiO₂- and WO₃/TiO₂-coated pervious concrete blocks showed a measurable NO _x removal (~60%) only under UV irradiation, whereas the visible light activity of the WO₃/TiO₂-coated concrete block was significantly reduced (~20%) mainly due to the decrease in the photocatalytic reaction sites for visible light. This study revealed the potential utility of photocatalytic nanoparticles in improving urban air quality, in the form of the surface component of various urban infrastructures.     

Characterization of Risks in Coastal Zones: A Review

Interest in sustainable development for the natural, socio‐economic, and cultural resources of coastal zones is growing worldwide. On the other hand, the range of threats to coastal zones increasingly posed by hydro‐meteorological natural phenomena has led to a trend in the analysis and assessment of risks to these areas. The available literature dealing with coastal risk assessment is quite wide, focusing mainly on the risk evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion resulting directly from the occurrence of extreme natural events. The risk assessment methodologies are usually specific to the conditions and available data of each country, society or location, though most have evolved to assess the risk concept more precisely and rigorously. However, there are still very few studies that present feasible and effective methodologies, which lead to the effective integration of risk analysis at all levels. In Mexico coastal risk analysis has barely begun despite our extensive coastline, which is highly vulnerable to the threat of tropical cyclones. This paper aims to give a broad view of the risk assessment methodologies which already exist, in order to provide a starting point for future efforts in Mexico and elsewhere.     

Landscape controls of surface-water/groundwater interactions on shallow outwash lakes: how the long-term groundwater signal overrides interannual variability due to evaporative effects

Hydrogeology Journal - The spatial and temporal controls on variability of the relative contributions of groundwater within and between flow systems to shallow lakes in the low-relief glaciated...