RCP4.5情景下预测21世纪南海海平面变化

结合卫星高度计资料和SODA温盐数据,本文利用CCSM(Community Climate System Model version4)气候系统模式在代表性浓度路径RCP4.5情景下对全球海平面变化趋势的预测模拟结果作为强迫场,用POP模式模拟预测21世纪南海海平面长期趋势变化及空间分布。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5情景下,南海海域在21世纪末10年平均海平面相对于20世纪末10年上升了15~39cm,明显上升海域位于中南半岛东部的南海中部、南部海域和吕宋海峡东西两侧海域,上升值最大可达39cm。如果加上格陵兰和南极等陆地冰川融化的影响,21世纪南海总海平面上升值将可能达到35~75cm。南海比容海平面明显上升区域位于吕宋岛东面的深水海域,广东沿岸流和吕宋冷涡之间海域,以及中南半岛东南部海域。总比容海平面的变化主要来自热比容,盐比容贡献比较小。南海南部和西部比容海平面上升速率较低,如加里曼丹岛西北侧、泰国湾和海南岛西侧有下降趋势。     

雨涝灾害对舞钢市棉花生产的影响

通过田间调查,对2004-2006年棉花不同阶段雨涝情况对棉花生育及产量构成的影响进行了比较分析,并提出了相应的抗灾减灾对策。     

富蕴地震断裂带的若干定量特征

对富蕴地震断裂带９处不同地段的平板地质测量结果表明：北部引张段地震断裂 带宽约２２０ｍ,断坎平均高０．４ｍ;中部主体走滑段地震断层长达５３５ｍ以上,断层水平位移为１．８￣７．８ｍ断坎高０．４￣１．２ｍ,水平位移与垂直位移之比为５．７￣８．６;南部末端破裂段地震抛掷巨石距离达４０ｍ,地震断层水平位移为０．４￣９．９ｍ,断坎平均高０．２ｍ,末端及副断层水平位移与垂直位移之比高达２５￣２８。     

南京市不动产登记数据整合方法研究与实践

完整、准确、一致、规范的数据是实施不动产统一登记的重要基础,是建设不动产登记信息平台、开展信息共享查询的基本前提.土地和房屋作为不动产的主要组成部分,其中数据整合是最为关键的环节,时间紧、难点多、工作量大且涉及面广.本文以南京市为例,在分析业务和数据现状的基础上提出了"标准统一""急用先行""整用结合""联动更新"的整合要求,统筹规划,分步实施,逐步建成了不动产登记数据库,为实现不动产统一登记科学管理、交易安全和数据共享服务提供数据支撑.     

Evaluation of deep geothermal resources and delineation of favorable exploration areas in Binhai New Area,Tianjin

The geothermal resources and petroleum coexist in Binhai New Area, Tianjin. In order to exploit and reduce the exploitation risk of the geothermal resources in oil field, the authors analyzed the thermal storage, geothermal field, sedimentary facies and fluid chemistry, and summaried the enrichment mechanism of thermal reservoir in Dongying Formation. The thermal fluid exploitation resources for 100 years were calculated by the numerical model, and the exploitation potential was evaluated. Then on the basis of the exploitation potential, the factor weight of oil-rich degree, size and temperature of geothermal resources in the favorable exploration areas was analyzed. The favorable exploration areas were partitioned. This research has important significance in the exploration of deep geothermal resources and the reduction of development risk in the oil area.     

辽东太子河流域晚石炭世刺毛类生长形态与礁体建造的研究

晚石炭世莫斯科期刺毛类(Chaetetids)是重要的造礁生物,在全球范围内广泛分布并建造礁体。中国已报道的刺毛类礁主要分布在辽东太子河流域,产在上石炭统本溪组海相灰岩中。刺毛类生长形态多样,有层状、板状、丘状、分枝状和柱状,主要以板状覆盖沉积物的方式造礁。研究区刺毛类礁中刺毛类生长形态及其所主导的生物群落在垂向上变化明显,由此将礁体的建造划分为三个阶段:(1)定殖阶段:刺毛类较少,生长方式单一,多以层状形态生长在棘屑滩上。层状刺毛类体积小,抗浪能力较弱,很难在其周围创造水流平缓的可供其他底栖生物生存的环境。因而该阶段群落生物种类单一,数量稀少;(2)繁盛阶段:刺毛类丰富,生长形态多样,以板状、分枝状和丘状为主。板状刺毛类单独形成的礁骨架,或与分枝状和丘状刺毛类组合起来的礁骨架,都能在其周围一定范围营造适宜底栖生物生存的环境,因此该阶段群落的生物多样性高;(3)衰退阶段:刺毛类很少,多为薄层状,断续生长在棘屑组成的基底上。薄层状刺毛类很脆弱,基本失去改善周围环境的能力,因此该阶段群落生物多样性很低。以上分析说明刺毛类生长形态的变化可以影响生物群落的组成和演化。生物群落的演化过程就是礁体建造的过程。从刺毛类生长形态的角度研究礁体建造过程,为分析由具有多种生长形态的造礁生物建造的生物礁的成礁机制提供新思路。     

Three-dimensional DEM analysis of single geogrid-encased stone columns under unconfined compression: a parametric study

Three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) was employed in this study to analyze the behavior of single geogrid-encased stone columns under unconfined compression. Four important parameters were investigated to understand and evaluate their effects on the behavior of the encased columns by seven DEM models. The biaxial geogrid used as an encasement material for stone columns was simulated using parallel-bonded particles, and the aggregate in the stone column was simulated using graded particles. Both the macroscopic responses (e.g., vertical pressure–strain curves) and the microscopic interactions (e.g., contact force, coordination number, and sliding fraction) of the columns under unconfined compression were analyzed and are presented in this paper. The numerical results show that the geogrid encasement with high tensile stiffness could provide high confining stresses and then effectively increased the bearing capacity of the column. The short column yielded quickly even though its column modulus at a small deformation was relatively high. The modulus of the column slightly decreased with an increase in the column diameter due to high circumferential strains mobilized in the geogrid encasement. The column with large aggregate was stiffer and deformed less than the column with small aggregate. Selecting aggregate with a size larger than the geogrid aperture size was an effective way to achieve better interlocking between the aggregate and the geogrid and to minimize mass loss for the geogrid-encased stone column under loading. Due to limited deformation allowed by the geogrid encasement, a coefficient of radial stress equal to half of the coefficient of passive earth pressure was suggested to estimate the ultimate bearing capacity of the geosynthetic-encased stone column.     

新疆及邻区地震构造图简介

This paper briefly introduces the Seismotectonic Map of Xinjiang and its neighborhood in the scale of 1∶2500000.The map is amended,supplemented and expanded based of the newly compiled Seismotectonic Map of Xinjiang in scale 1∶1000000.The base map of this seismotectonic map is the geologic map of western China and its neighborhood compiled by Li Tingdong.The abundant new materials from related research,referential literatures and the analyses on remote sensing data were used in the compiling work.A database and relevant documents are built for nearly 300 active faults and 150 active folds.The basic information of the major active faults,especially those near the border areas in this map are introduced in this paper.     

Prediction of China＇s Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.     

1906年新疆玛纳斯西南八级地震地表破坏现象与地质构造的关系

1906年12月23日北京时间2时21分在新疆玛纳斯西南发生的八级地震,历史资料虽有记载,但有关地面破坏的详细情况则无反映。自1972年以来,我局所属地质人员曾多次深入震区调查访问,已作了几个专门总结。本报导在此基础上,就地震的地表破坏现象和发震构造问题作一简略的介绍。