Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099

The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961–2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP.     

Seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia Earthquake Region Between 1962 and 1998

The Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is part of the Saxothuringian Earthquake Province. It is an isolated area of active intraplate seismicity. Observations of the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 are summarized. More than 17000 earthquakes have been detected microseismically with M _L reaching from about –1.5 to 4.6. In the considered time interval, the catalogue of Vogtland events can be regarded as complete for magnitudes larger than 1.8. The region is well known for the occurrence of earthquakes clustered contemporarily in time and space. In this study, altogether 82 clusters are defined. Among them, clusters with swarm properties are distinguished from clusters with main shock accompanied by fore- and aftershocks, and from single events. 48 swarms are detected.The magnitude-frequency distribution of the maximum magnitudes of the clusters is studied. In the magnitude range 1.8  M _L  3.1, a bimodal character of the magnitude-frequency distribution is detected for both swarms and nonswarm-like events. The slope is greater for larger magnitudes than in the small-magnitude range. A gap in the magnitude-frequency distribution of clusters is observed for maximum magnitudes between 3.1 and 4.3. Furthermore, clusters themselves are characterized by the b-values of their magnitude-frequency distributions. Swarms show b-values greater than 0.7. Epicenters of swarms are confined to a few subregions. Epicenters of nonswarm-like events are distributed over a larger region than epicenters of swarms but hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like clusters may be located close to each other.The envelope of the distribution of magnitudes as a function of time is investigated. In the considered time interval, a statistically significant recurrence of strong events of about 72 months is discovered by a frequency analysis. Comparing the seismicity between 1897 and 1908 with the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 temporal variations in the recurrence become obvious. The Nový Kostel zone is discussed in more detail. The average hypocenters of swarms are located on a SW-dipping fault segment that intersects the Eger Rift in NNW-SSE direction.Discussing properties of the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region it is concluded that the increased seismicity may be explained by the presence of fluids on deep reaching faults. The occurrence of swarms, their variability as well as the small distances between hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like events point to strong lateral and possibly temporal changes of the properties of the fault system.     

Photoionization rates in the night-time E- and F-region ionosphere1

Quantitative estimates of ionization sources that maintain the night-time E- and F-region ionosphere are given. Starlight (stellar continuum radiation in the spectral inverval 911–1026 Å) and resonance scattering of solar Ly-β into the night sector are the most important sources in the E-region and are capable of maintaining observable electron densities of order (1–4) × 10³ cm^?3. Starlight ionization rates have substantial variations (factors of 2–4) with latitude and time of year since the brightest stars in the night sky occur in the southern Milky Way and Orion regions. In the lower F-region the major O⁺ source in the equatorial ionosphere is 910 Å radiation from the O⁺ recombination in the F2-region, whereas in the extratropical ionosphere interplanetary 584 Å radiation only exceeds resonance scattering of solar 584 and 304 Å radiation as the dominant O⁺ source during the month of December.     

Gendered labour arrangements in Switzerland: Structures, cultures, meanings: statistical evidence and biographical narratives

In this paper we explore the role of culture in the reproduction of gendered labour arrangements. Using Switzerland as an example, we first analyse statistical data on paid and unpaid labour. We look at differences between women and men, but also between different types of regions. Patterns emerge to support our hypothesis that beyond structures of economic opportunity, economic cycles and welfare state provisions, local (gender) culture might explain some of the particularities of gendered labour arrangements. The argument is reinforced by data on regional voting patterns in a recent referendum on the issue of maternity leave. In the second part, we further explore these issues by looking at a particular place and re-telling work-life-stories that show how two women navigate between different working culture environments in accordance with their life-cycle needs and individual ideas and values. Finally, we discuss issues of scale and methodology and reflect on the significance of varying local working environments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Method for Modeling of a Creeping Slope with a Visco-Hypoplastic Material Law

This paper presents the numerical simulation of a creeping slope in Upper Austria, using a visco-hypoplastic material law which describes the mechanical behavior of cohesive soils allowing for viscous effects, i.e. creep and relaxation. The method consists of: (1) determination of the parameters of the material law, based on laboratory tests on soil samples taken from the slope; (2) simulation of the laboratory tests with an element test program in which the used material law was implemented, in order to test whether the model holds for the soils studied; and (3) simulation of slope movements at different sections along the slope, assuming an infinite slope. The simulation results fit well with the field measurements. This demonstrates that despite strongly simplified boundary conditions and limited availability of subsurface data (e.g. density) the visco-hypoplastic law is a promising tool for predicting creep movements.     

Primary and secondary bifurcation in baroclinic instability

In modelling atmospheric flows the baroclinic instability of the flow in a differentially heated rotating annulus plays a central role. This paper deals with an experimental study using LDV and flow visualization techniques. Usually the temperature difference,T, was kept fixed while the angular velocity,, was varied. On crossing the stability boundary, the primary bifurcation, the basic flow gives way to a baroclinic wave flow. For a given annulus geometry the wave number,m, of the first wave pattern was found to be uniquely defined byT. The measured critical values of, _crit, agree reasonably well with those obtained by other authors. On increasing above _crit the wave number changed, this process showing hysteresis. The situation might indicate secondary bifurcation phenomena. Flow visualization using aluminium particles shows surface flow details.This paper is dedicated to Prof. Dr. K. Gersten on the occasion of his 60th birthday     

Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m³ water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m³ s^?1. These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m³ s^?1. Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia.     

Microbial iron reduction during passive in situ remediation of an acidic mine pit lake mesocosm

Ferric iron reduction was studied in a pilot-scale enclosure experiment for passive biological remediation of an acidic mine pit lake in Lusatia, Germany. The metabolic properties of prokaryotes involved in Fe(III) reduction may be important for the outcome of biological remediation, as chemolithotrophic Fe(III) reduction can counteract the desired pH increase, but heterotrophic Fe(III) reduction will provide the necessary Fe(II) for precipitation of sulfide minerals following sulfate reduction. Therefore, vertical profiles of sediment parameters related to iron and sulfur cycling were determined in conjunction with viable counts of different ferric iron-reducing micro-organisms using selective media. Findings were compared to an untreated reference site. The addition of organic matter stimulated ferric iron reduction and sulfate reduction in the enclosure and led to elevated pH and accumulations of ferrous iron and reduced sulfur compounds. Numbers of neutrophilic heterotrophic Fe(III) reducers increased during treatment, those of acidophilic heterotrophic Fe(III) reducers remained similar, and those of acidophilic chemolithotrophic Fe(III) reducers decreased. Zones of ferric iron-reducing activity corresponded well with microbial depth profiles; however, viable counts of neutrophilic or acid-tolerant Fe(III) reducers must have been underestimated based on the corresponding observed activity levels. Ferric iron reduction by chemolithotrophic acidophiles seemed to be of minor importance, so a lowering of pH values due to Fe(III) reducing activity is unlikely.