3D Elastic Solutions for Laterally Loaded Discs: Generalised Brazilian and Point Load Tests

This paper investigates the application of a double Fourier series technique to the construction of an elastic stress field in a cylindrical bar subject to lateral boundary loads. The lateral loads, including the constant load boundary conditions, are represented by two Fourier series: one on the perimeter of the circular section (r ₀, θ) and the other on the longitudinal curved surface parallel to the bar axis (z). The technique invokes acceptable potential functions of the Papkovich–Neuber displacement field, satisfying the governing partial differential equations, to assign appropriate odd and even trigonometric Fourier terms in cylindrical coordinates (r, θ, z). The generic solution decomposes the problem of interest to a state of stress caused by two independent boundary conditions along the z axis and θ-polar angle, both superimposed on a solution for which these potentials are the product of the trigonometric terms of the independent variables (θ, z). Constants appearing in the resultant second-order partial differential equations are determined from the generally mixed (tractions and/or displacements) boundary conditions. While the solutions are satisfied exactly at the ends of an infinite bar, they are satisfied weakly on average, in the light of Saint Venant’s approximation at the two ends of a finite bar. The application of the proposed analysis is verified against available elastic solutions for axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric engineering problems such as the indirect Brazilian Tensile Strength and Point Load Strength tests.     

Evaluation of public participation in reconstruction of Bam,Iran, after the 2003 earthquake

In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies.     

Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East

Dust storm in the Middle East and south-west Asia is a natural hazard and the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain has been recognized as the main dust source in this area. In this study, more than 60 dust storms that occurred during the period 2003–2011 are investigated on the basis of MODIS satellite images, and 12 of the dust storms are selected for synoptic analysis using the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Data. The potential dust sources in the Middle East and south-west Asian region (20°E to 80°E, 5°N to 50°N) are analyzed and used in the synoptic analysis. Dust storms in the region can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., the Shamal dust storms and the frontal dust storms. Synoptic systems, associated with the two categories, are distinguished and the frequency of the patterns is identified. For 68% of the Shamal dust storms, a high pressure system is situated between 0°E to 30°E and 27°N to 45°N, and a low pressure system between 50°E to 70°E and 23°N to 43°N. For 86% of the frontal dust storms, a high is located between 51°E to 67°E and 18°N to 33°N and a low between 28°E to 48°E and 32°N to 43°N. Three main patterns for Shamal dust storms are identified, which represent about 60% of the Shamal dust storms. This analysis confirms that the Shamal is related to the anticyclones located over northern Africa to Eastern Europe and the monsoon trough over Iraq, southern Iran, Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent. The analysis also shows that the main dust sink for the frontal dust storms in Tigris and Euphrates alluvial plain extends from center of Iraq to west and center of Iran and, in most severe cases, to northern Iran and the southern coast of the Caspian Sea.     

Measuring the effect of an ongoing urbanization process on biodiversity conservation suitability index: integrating scenario-based urban growth modelling with Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS)

The present study adopts an integrative modelling methodology, which combines the strengths of the SLEUTH model and the Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS) method. By developing a scenario-based geographic information system simulation environment for Hashtpar City, Iran, the manageability of the landscape under each urban growth scenario is analysed. In addition, the CAPS approach was used for biodiversity conservation suitability mapping. The SLEUTH model was implemented to generate predictive urban layers of the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for each scenario (dynamic factors for conservation suitability mapping). Accordingly, conservation suitability surface of the area is updated for each time point and under each urban development storyline. Two-way analysis of variance and Duncan’s new multiple range tests were employed to compare the functionality of the three scenarios. Based on results, the managed urban growth scenario depicted better results for manageability of the landscape and less negative impact on conservation suitability values.     

Strong ground motion record selection for the reliable prediction of the mean seismic collapse capacity of a structure group

How to select a limited number of strong ground motion records (SGMRs) is an important challenge for the seismic collapse capacity assessment of structures. The collapse capacity is considered as the ground motion intensity measure corresponding to the drift‐related dynamic instability in the structural system. The goal of this paper is to select, from a general set of SGMRs, a small number of subsets such that each can be used for the reliable prediction of the mean collapse capacity of a particular group of structures, i.e. of single degree‐of‐freedom systems with a typical behaviour range. In order to achieve this goal, multivariate statistical analysis is first applied, to determine what degree of similarity exists between each selected small subset and the general set of SGMRs. Principal Component analysis is applied to identify the best way to group structures, resulting in a minimum number of SGMRs in a proposed subset. The structures were classified into six groups, and for each group a subset of eight SGMRs has been proposed. The methodology has been validated by analysing a first‐mode‐dominated three‐storey‐reinforced concrete structure by means of the proposed subsets, as well as the general set of SGMRs. The results of this analysis show that the mean seismic collapse capacity can be predicted by the proposed subsets with less dispersion than by the recently developed improved approach, which is based on scaling the response spectra of the records to match the conditional mean spectrum. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating seismic attributes in the accurate modeling of geological structures and determining the storage of the gas reservoir in Gorgan Plain (North of Iran)

Three dimensional seismic operation of Gorgan Plain was studied around a well, which is situated in North of Iran following the hitting of a thin overpressure gas layer (thickness of 9.6 m), with the purpose of the accurate modeling of geological structures and determining the approximate gas storages. The geological structures of the reservoir were modeled using the seismic attributes (coherence, instantaneous amplitude and spectral decomposition (FFT)). The obtained results clearly demonstrated the shape and volume of the existing structural traps in the studied area. In order to estimate the thickness of gas layer in the 3D seismic volume and determining the gas storage, the thickness changes based on the seismic amplitudes were used because its thickness was less than the critical resolution thickness for this layer. However, due to its low thickness, the lack of indicator peak in seismic sections and strong faults of area, it was difficult to pursue this layer in the seismic volume and map its exact amplitude. Considering this issue, a new method with integrating of seismic attributes was recommended. First, the instantaneous amplitude attribute of the thin reservoir layer reflector in computed synthetic seismogram were fabricated and then the frequency regarding the highest amount (dominant frequency) was chosen by Fourier Transform. Finally, spectral decomposition (FFT) with the resulting frequency was gained over the cross-section of the layer's instantaneous amplitude attribute in the 3D seismic volume choosing a proper time window. In such a situation, an increase of its thickness was seen as its amplitude increase and the minimum gas storage of this reservoir was calculated using the area of the restricted part of high thickness (over 9.6 m).     

Determination of gravity anomaly at sea level from inversion of satellite gravity gradiometric data

Gravity gradients can be used to determine the local gravity field of the Earth. This paper investigates downward continuation of all elements of the disturbing gravitational tensor at satellite level using the second-order partial derivatives of the extended Stokes formula in the local-north oriented frame to determine the gravity anomaly at sea level. It considers the inversion of each gradient separately as well as their joint inversion. Numerical studies show that the gradients T_zz, T_xx, T_yy and T_xz have similar capability of being continued downward to sea level in the presence of white noise, while the gradient T_yz is considerably worse than the others. The bias-corrected joint inversion process shows the possibility of recovering the gravity anomaly with 1 mGal accuracy. Variance component estimation is also tested to update the observation weights in the joint inversion.     

Least-squares modification of extended Stokes’ formula and its second-order radial derivative for validation of satellite gravity gradiometry data

The gravity anomalies at sea level can be used to validate the satellite gravity gradiometry data. Validation of such a data is important prior to downward continuation because of amplification of the data errors through this process. In this paper the second-order radial derivative of the extended Stokes’ formula is employed and the emphasis is on least-squares modification of this formula to generate the second-order radial gradient at satellite level. Two methods in this respect are proposed: (a) modifying the second-order radial derivative of extended Stokes’ formula directly, and (b) modifying extended Stokes’ formula prior to taking the second-order radial derivative. Numerical studies show that the former method works well but the latter is very sensitive to the proper choice of the cap size of integration and degree of modification.