基于生态足迹的区域生态适度人口研究——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

适度人口取决于生态、经济和土地等多要素的综合承载力。介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念和计算方法,并运用该模型对兵团1995—2008年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算,在此基础上对兵团的1995—2010年的生态适度人口进行了估算。结果表明,1995—1999年兵团的实际人口虽然在增加,但相对于生态适度人口并没有出现过剩;2000—2010年兵团生态适度人口在不断下降,实际人口和过剩人口却在不断增加。兵团目前已经出现了过度人口和生态赤字,人地矛盾相对紧张,生态适度人口规模是不合理的。     

Rock warming and drying under simulated intertidal conditions,part II: weathering and biological influences on evaporative cooling and near‐surface micro‐climatic conditions as an example of biogeomorphic ecosystem engineering

The way in which rocks and engineering materials heat‐up and dry‐out in the intertidal zone is of relevance to both weathering and ecology. These behaviours can be measured in the laboratory under controlled conditions designed to replicate those occurring in the field. Previous studies have demonstrated differences in thermal behaviours between rock types and through time as a result of soiling in terrestrial environments, but the influence of weathering and colonization on rock behaviours in the intertidal zone has not been previously assessed. We measured the warming and drying of blocks of rock (limestone and granite) and marine concrete during ‘low‐tide’ events simulated in the laboratory, before and after a period of exposure (eight months) on rock platforms in Cornwall, UK. As well as differences between the material types, temperatures of control (unexposed) and field‐exposed blocks differed in the order of 1 to 2 °C. Drying behaviours were also different after field exposure. Differences during the first few hours of exposure to air and heat were attributed to discolouration and albedo effects. Over longer periods of time, changes in the availability of near‐surface pore water as a result of micro‐scale bioerosion of limestone and the development of bio‐chemical crusts on marine concrete [observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM)] are suggested as mechanisms enhancing and reducing, respectively, the efficiency of evaporative cooling. The retention of moisture by epilithic biofilms may also influence thermal and drying behaviours of granite. These observations represent one of the first examples of cross‐scalar biogeomorphic linkages in the intertidal zone. The significance of the results for the subsequent efficiency of weathering, and near‐surface micro‐climatic conditions experienced by colonizing organisms is discussed. The involvement of microorganisms in the creation of more (or less) ecologically stressful conditions through the alteration of substratum geomorphic properties and behaviours is suggested as an example of ‘biogeomorphic ecosystem engineering’. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data base management system for erosivity values

In order to check the premature siltation of the reservoirs and guard against the drop in the irrigation potential, the Government of India has launched the schemes of soil conservation and integrated watershed management in the catchments of RVPs and Flood Prone rivers. Owing to the large financial and manpower commitments needed to implement and execute soil conservation measures over vast catchment areas, a priority approach for treatment was identified. The methodology developed for prioritization of watersheds of a catchment area conceptualizes sedimentation of the reservoirs as a multiplicative function of erosivity value and the delivery ratio. This paper deals with the development of a computerized data base software module ‘WEIGHT’ for determination of erosivity values for the mapping units comprising assemblages of the varying combinations of climate, physiography and slope, land use and cover conditions, soil characteristics (texture, solumn thickness, permeability and pH) and the existing erosion and soil conservation measures. The WEIGHT software package is coded in FORTRON-4 for PDP 11/83 operating system. the data base comprises storage of the attributes of the different erosivity determinants of the mapping units with predetermined erosivity values sequentially on a disk and comparing the attributes of a new mapping unit to get the most probabilities erosivity value. The objective has been to eliminate the personal bias and bring about the objectivity in the process of assigning erosivity values to the different mapping units. The data base design, design logic and operational sequence of the data base are discussed in the paper.     

非均质地基中平面应变隧道开挖面稳定上限分析

非均质是软黏土地基中比较普遍的现象,而目前隧道开挖面稳定研究中比较成熟的理论主要是针对均质土体。因此,从塑性极限分析上限法的基本原理出发,采用平面应变隧道刚体平动破坏模式(多块体上限法),考虑软黏土地基的非均质性,推导了平面应变隧道极限支护压力关于隧道埋深、土体重度及土体强度的上限公式。通过与其他方法的比较分析,证明了极限分析方法在隧道开挖面稳定性方面的可行性;利用该方法的计算结果详细探讨了隧道开挖面稳定的影响因素;而且由计算结果可知,地基土的非均质性在影响隧道开挖面极限支护压力的同时,也影响着隧道开挖破坏面的位置和形状,为工程实践提供重要的理论依据。     

A mass ratio limit for primordial black holes

We augment our scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from macroscopic superstrings by the assumption that the central matter keeps its identity in the fragmentation. From the condition that the angular momentum per mass squared of this matter should be less than the Kerr limit G/c, we obtain upper limits for the ratio of the mass of central black holes M(BH) to the mass M of the host object. This limit is M(BH)/M ≈ 0.001, and, expressed in observed quantities, approximately M(BH)/M ≈ σ²/(v · c) where σ is the r.m.s. velocity, v the rotational velocity and c the velocity of light. The valuesM(BH) agree with the observed behaviour both in order of magnitude and in the variation with velocity dispersion. (© 2003 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.