DATA ANALYSIS WITH MINIMAL ASSUMPTIONS

The computer has made it possible to scrutinize data rapidly by means of graphics. This should be doneprior to the application of any model to the data, since the model must be validated before using it asa means of analyzing the data. The procedure is illustrated in terms of two examples of real experimentaldata.     

Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

Practices in disaster mitigation in the case of the 2015 Typhoon Koppu debris flows in Nueva Ecija,Philippines

Natural Hazards - In October 2015, heavy rains brought by Typhoon Koppu generated landslides and debris flows in the municipalities of Bongabon, Laur, and Gabaldon in Nueva Ecija province....     

Analysing tension infiltrometer data from sloped surface using two‐dimensional approximation

Tension infiltrometers allow water to infiltrate into the soils at various specified pressure heads. The resulting infiltration rates can then be analysed for soil hydraulic properties by either analytical or inverse numerical methods. Tension infiltrometers however are primarily designed to be deployed on horizontal land surfaces, and their applications have been studied widely using an inverse numerical tool HYDRUS‐2D. However, natural landscapes are often nonhorizontal, and infiltration through tension infiltrometers on sloped surfaces is no longer an axisymmetrical two‐dimensional (2D) process but a fully three‐dimensional (3D) one. In addition, minimal research has examined the effect of simplifying the 3D problem to a 2D one on the hydraulic conductivity estimated using tension infiltrometer data from different land slopes of various soil types. Therefore, in this study, tension infiltrometer data on different slopes have been obtained from a catchment located at National University of Singapore. In addition, tension infiltrometer data of six soil types on different slopes and with different initial water content were simulated using HYDRUS‐3D. Combining field measurements, forward and inverse modelling, the influence of applying a 2D approximation on hydraulic property estimations using tension infiltrometer data was examined. The results show that the estimations for soils with high infiltration rates are more sensitive to application of the 2D approximation. The maximum allowable slopes for employing 2D approximation on clayey and sandy soils are 25° and less than 3°, respectively. Furthermore, the maximum allowable slope decreases with decreasing initial water content. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of sandstone peak‐forest landscapes – insights from quantifying erosional processes with cosmogenic nuclides

The sandstone peak‐forest landscape in Zhangjiajie UNESCO Global Geopark of Hunan Province, China, is characterized by >3000 vertical pillars and peak walls of up to 350 m height, representing a spectacular example of sandstone landform variety. Few studies have addressed the mechanisms and timescales of the longer‐term evolution of this landscape, and have focused on fluvial incision. We use in situ cosmogenic nuclides combined with GIS analysis to investigate the erosional processes contributing to the formation of pillars and peak‐forests, and discuss their relative roles in the formation and decay of the landscape. Model maximum‐limiting bedrock erosion rates are the highest along the narrow fluvial channels and valleys at the base of the sandstone pillars (~83–122 mm kyr^?1), and lowest on the peak wall tops (~2.5 mm kyr^?1). Erosion rates are highly variable and intermediate along vertical sandstone peak walls and pillars (~30 to 84 mm kyr^?1). Catchment‐wide denudation rates from river sediment vary between ~26 and 96 mm kyr^?1 and are generally consistent with vertical wall retreat rates. This highlights the importance of wall retreat for overall erosion in the sandstone peak‐forest. In combination with GIS‐derived erosional volumes, our results suggest that the peak‐forest formation in Zhangjiajie commenced in the Pliocene, and that the general evolution of the landscape followed our sequential refined model: (i) slow lowering rates following initial uplift; (ii) fast plateau dissection by headward knickpoint propagation along joints and faults followed by; (iii) increasing contribution of wall retreat in the well‐developed pillars and peak‐forests and a gradual decrease in overall denudation rates, leading to; (iv) the final consumption of pillars and peak‐forests. Our study provides an approach for quantifying the complex interplay between multiple geomorphic processes as required to assess the evolutionary pathways of other sandstone peak‐forest landscapes across the globe. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drone photogrammetry and KMeans point cloud filtering to create high resolution topographic and inundation models of coastal sediment archives

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC), tsunamis and other water super‐elevation events, but the frequency of these events is often poorly represented by conventional records. Coastal overwash deposits (including washover fans) can provide a longer‐term archive of event frequency. Because of their low‐gradient geomorphic form, washover fans require high accuracy (centimetre‐resolution) topographic models to understand patterns of connectivity and dynamics that control archive formation. Using images collected by a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS, or ‘drone’) and Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) photogrammetry techniques, we apply a novel point‐cloud filtering technique based on KMeans classification of the R‐G‐B colour of each X‐Y‐Z point to remove vegetation and create a centimetre‐resolution and accuracy bare‐earth digital terrain model (DTM) of a washover fan in Exmouth Gulf (Western Australia). Using the RPAS‐SfM orphophoto and DEM data, supported by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and field stratigraphic analysis, we show how this approach can be applied to understand dynamics controlling low‐gradient geomorphic landforms, using an example of a washover fan sedimentary archive in northwestern Australia created by extreme overwash events. Our approach reveals the likely role of backflooding and terrestrial runoff in creating backwater environment for sub‐aqueous deposition and good sediment preservation and identifies key areas to target for detailed dating and stratigraphic analysis of a potentially decadal to sub‐millennial resolution sediment archive of TC activity. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Quaternary biotic and abiotic controls on long-term sediment flux in a northern Australian tropical river system

The modern distribution of monsoonal rainforest in the Australian tropics is patchy and is mainly associated with river corridors and groundwater springs, which indicates a strong dependence on hydrologic and geomorphic conditions. While their present distribution is well known, very little data exists on past spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems, or their medium- to longer-term controls. Factors such as (i) fire frequency and type, and/or (ii) hydroclimatic conditions (e.g. droughts) have been proposed to control riverine corridor rainforest extent. Recent observations, however, also suggest an additional (iii) geomorphic control induced by alluvial knickpoint migration. Sediment sequences provide valuable archives for the reconstruction of longer-term (a) floodplain sedimentary dynamics, (b) local vegetation history, and (c) catchment-wide fire histories. This study investigates such a sediment sequence at Wangi Creek, and shows that a phase of aggradation, lasting ~4000 years, was recently disrupted by channel incision and floodplain erosion. The aggradational phase is characterized by sand deposition with average vertical floodplain accretion rates of 0.8 cm/yr and includes phases of soil development. The recent incisional phase has changed hydro-geomorphic conditions and caused widespread degradation of vegetation, erosion and lowering of the macro-channel surface. While there is no evidence in our data for an erosional event of similar magnitude since the onset of late Holocene floodplain aggradation, Wangi Creek experienced significant erosion and incision immediately before ~4000 years, providing the first evidence for a tropical cut-and-fill river system. We hence argue that phases of aggradation mainly controlled by biotic processes alternate and depend on feedbacks with incision phases controlled mainly by abiotic processes. The results show that eco-hydro-geomorphic feedbacks may play a crucial role in the medium- to longer-term history of tropical fluvial systems and need to be considered when interpreting fluvial archives with regards to climate, fire or human induced change. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.