Space-time spectra of the atmospheric intraseasonal variability in the extratropics and their dependency on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon: model versus observation

By comparing the results obtained from two sets of simulations with the ECHAM3 and the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation models with results derived from the ECMWF re-analyses, we not only investigate the models’ capability to reproduce aspects of the intraseasonal variability in the extratropics realistically, but also evaluate the impact of the changes between the two different versions of the ECHAM model. Moreover, we assess the impact of the marked variations of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the characteristics of the intraseasonal variability in the midlatitudes. Both models realistically reproduce many aspects of the intraseasonal variability in the extratropics, i.e. the partition of the variability into the contributions of the transient cell and of the stationary and transient eddies and its seasonal variation, and also the spectral distribution of the contribution of the transient waves to the intraseasonal variability. The most severe deficiency of the models is a considerable underestimation of the contributions of the transient waves to the intraseasonal variability, mainly in the low-frequency part of the spectrum. In the recent version of the ECHAM model (ECHAM4) some of the model’s shortcomings in simulating the intraseasonal variability realistically, in particular those in the Southern Hemisphere, are noticeably reduced compared to the previous version (ECHAM3). Yet some aspects are more realistically captured by ECHAM3. Both the ECMWF re-analyses and the two sets of simulations with the ECHAM models reveal a distinct impact of the ENSO phenomenon on the characteristics of the intraseasonal variability within the extratropics in boreal winter. In the Northern Hemisphere the most prominent effect is that the activity of the stationary waves is enhanced during El Niño events at the expense of the transient waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, on the other hand, all the different contributions to the variance on intraseasonal time scales (transient cell, transient and stationary eddies) are stronger during El Niño than during La Niña events. Concerning the transient waves, this mainly reflects changes in the low-frequency part of the spectrum associated with the activity of ultra-long planetary waves.     

Livelihood and vulnerability in the wake of Typhoon Yolanda: lessons of community and resilience

Natural Hazards - Livelihood strategies that are crafted in ‘extra-ordinary’ post-disaster conditions should also be able to function once some semblance of normalcy has resumed. This...     

Evolution of sandstone peak‐forest landscapes – insights from quantifying erosional processes with cosmogenic nuclides

The sandstone peak‐forest landscape in Zhangjiajie UNESCO Global Geopark of Hunan Province, China, is characterized by >3000 vertical pillars and peak walls of up to 350 m height, representing a spectacular example of sandstone landform variety. Few studies have addressed the mechanisms and timescales of the longer‐term evolution of this landscape, and have focused on fluvial incision. We use in situ cosmogenic nuclides combined with GIS analysis to investigate the erosional processes contributing to the formation of pillars and peak‐forests, and discuss their relative roles in the formation and decay of the landscape. Model maximum‐limiting bedrock erosion rates are the highest along the narrow fluvial channels and valleys at the base of the sandstone pillars (~83–122 mm kyr^?1), and lowest on the peak wall tops (~2.5 mm kyr^?1). Erosion rates are highly variable and intermediate along vertical sandstone peak walls and pillars (~30 to 84 mm kyr^?1). Catchment‐wide denudation rates from river sediment vary between ~26 and 96 mm kyr^?1 and are generally consistent with vertical wall retreat rates. This highlights the importance of wall retreat for overall erosion in the sandstone peak‐forest. In combination with GIS‐derived erosional volumes, our results suggest that the peak‐forest formation in Zhangjiajie commenced in the Pliocene, and that the general evolution of the landscape followed our sequential refined model: (i) slow lowering rates following initial uplift; (ii) fast plateau dissection by headward knickpoint propagation along joints and faults followed by; (iii) increasing contribution of wall retreat in the well‐developed pillars and peak‐forests and a gradual decrease in overall denudation rates, leading to; (iv) the final consumption of pillars and peak‐forests. Our study provides an approach for quantifying the complex interplay between multiple geomorphic processes as required to assess the evolutionary pathways of other sandstone peak‐forest landscapes across the globe. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Drone photogrammetry and KMeans point cloud filtering to create high resolution topographic and inundation models of coastal sediment archives

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC), tsunamis and other water super‐elevation events, but the frequency of these events is often poorly represented by conventional records. Coastal overwash deposits (including washover fans) can provide a longer‐term archive of event frequency. Because of their low‐gradient geomorphic form, washover fans require high accuracy (centimetre‐resolution) topographic models to understand patterns of connectivity and dynamics that control archive formation. Using images collected by a remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS, or ‘drone’) and Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) photogrammetry techniques, we apply a novel point‐cloud filtering technique based on KMeans classification of the R‐G‐B colour of each X‐Y‐Z point to remove vegetation and create a centimetre‐resolution and accuracy bare‐earth digital terrain model (DTM) of a washover fan in Exmouth Gulf (Western Australia). Using the RPAS‐SfM orphophoto and DEM data, supported by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and field stratigraphic analysis, we show how this approach can be applied to understand dynamics controlling low‐gradient geomorphic landforms, using an example of a washover fan sedimentary archive in northwestern Australia created by extreme overwash events. Our approach reveals the likely role of backflooding and terrestrial runoff in creating backwater environment for sub‐aqueous deposition and good sediment preservation and identifies key areas to target for detailed dating and stratigraphic analysis of a potentially decadal to sub‐millennial resolution sediment archive of TC activity. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Quaternary biotic and abiotic controls on long-term sediment flux in a northern Australian tropical river system

The modern distribution of monsoonal rainforest in the Australian tropics is patchy and is mainly associated with river corridors and groundwater springs, which indicates a strong dependence on hydrologic and geomorphic conditions. While their present distribution is well known, very little data exists on past spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems, or their medium- to longer-term controls. Factors such as (i) fire frequency and type, and/or (ii) hydroclimatic conditions (e.g. droughts) have been proposed to control riverine corridor rainforest extent. Recent observations, however, also suggest an additional (iii) geomorphic control induced by alluvial knickpoint migration. Sediment sequences provide valuable archives for the reconstruction of longer-term (a) floodplain sedimentary dynamics, (b) local vegetation history, and (c) catchment-wide fire histories. This study investigates such a sediment sequence at Wangi Creek, and shows that a phase of aggradation, lasting ~4000 years, was recently disrupted by channel incision and floodplain erosion. The aggradational phase is characterized by sand deposition with average vertical floodplain accretion rates of 0.8 cm/yr and includes phases of soil development. The recent incisional phase has changed hydro-geomorphic conditions and caused widespread degradation of vegetation, erosion and lowering of the macro-channel surface. While there is no evidence in our data for an erosional event of similar magnitude since the onset of late Holocene floodplain aggradation, Wangi Creek experienced significant erosion and incision immediately before ~4000 years, providing the first evidence for a tropical cut-and-fill river system. We hence argue that phases of aggradation mainly controlled by biotic processes alternate and depend on feedbacks with incision phases controlled mainly by abiotic processes. The results show that eco-hydro-geomorphic feedbacks may play a crucial role in the medium- to longer-term history of tropical fluvial systems and need to be considered when interpreting fluvial archives with regards to climate, fire or human induced change. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practices in disaster mitigation in the case of the 2015 Typhoon Koppu debris flows in Nueva Ecija,Philippines

Natural Hazards - In October 2015, heavy rains brought by Typhoon Koppu generated landslides and debris flows in the municipalities of Bongabon, Laur, and Gabaldon in Nueva Ecija province....     

The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2��C with respect to pre-industrial times

In this study the potential future changes in different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed, focussing on the role of the different mechanisms leading to these changes. In addition, these changes as well as the underlying mechanisms are compared to the corresponding changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming exceeding 4.5°C, associated with the widely used SRES A1B scenario. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model, each starting from different initial conditions. In one set of simulations (2020?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed in such a way that the simulated global warming dioes not exceed 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times. In the other set of simulations (1860?C2200), greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol load have been prescribed according to observations until 2000 and according to the SRES A1B scenario after 2000. The study reveals marked changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 2°C with respect to pre-industrial conditions, namely an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation despite a weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation. The increase in the monsoon rainfall is related to a variety of different mechanisms, with the intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region as the most important one. The weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation is mainly caused by changes in the Walker circulation with large-scale divergence (convergence) in the lower (uppper) troposphere over the Indian Ocean in response to enhanced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific and reduced convective activity over the western tropical Pacific. These changes in the Walker circulation induce westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at lower (upper) level in the Indian region. The comparison with the changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 4.5°C reveals that both the intensification of the monsoon precipitation and the weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation (particularly in the lower troposphere) are relatively strong (with respect to the magnitude of the projected global warming by the end of the twentieth century for the two scenarios) in the scenario with a global warming of 2°C. The relatively strong intensification of the monsoon rainfall is related to rather strong increases in evaporation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while a rather weak amplification of the meridional temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and the land areas to the north contributes to the relatively strong reduction of the large-scale monsoon flow.     

Numerical study on the effects of floodplain vegetation on river planform style

The effects of floodplain vegetation on river planform have been investigated for a medium‐sized river using a 2D morphodynamic model with submodels for flow resistance and plant colonization. The flow resistance was divided into a resistance exerted by the soil and a resistance exerted by the plants. In this way it was possible to reproduce both the decrease in bed shear stress, reducing the sediment transport capacity of the flow within the plants, and the increase in hydraulic resistance, reducing the flow velocities. Colonization by plants was obtained by instantaneously assigning vegetation to the areas that became dry at low water stages. This colonization presents a step forward in the modelling of bank accretion. Bank erosion was related to bed degradation at adjacent wet cells. Bank advance and retreat were reproduced as drying and wetting of the computational cells at the channel margins. The model was applied to a hypothetical case with the same characteristics as the Allier River (France). The river was allowed to develop its own geometry starting from a straight, uniform, channel. Different vegetation densities produced different planforms. With bare floodplains, the river always developed a braided planform, even if the discharge was constant and below bankfull. With the highest vegetation density (grass) the flow concentrated in a single channel and formed incipient meanders. Lower vegetation density (pioneer vegetation) led to a transitional planform, with a low degree of braiding and distinguishable incipient meanders. The results comply with flume experiments and field observations reported in the literature.