Internal migration patterns for U.S. foreign-born, 1985-1990

"Using 1990 census data, this paper calculates the flow [of the foreign-born population in the United States] between states and from abroad; also, a multinomial logistic regression model of destination choice is estimated for resettlers and for migrants from abroad. There are three major findings. Firstly, Florida and California are the largest recipients of foreign-born resettlers; New York is the biggest loser of secondary migrants. Secondly, the presence of large communities of Mexicans in California and Cubans in Florida are very attractive to both resettlers and migrants from abroad. Thirdly, immigrants that are most in need of ethnic support networks (i.e. new arrivals or immigrants with low human capital resources) are most likely to choose one of the traditional immigration states as a destination."     

The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Summary Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and to possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective of when lagged correlations are commenced, correlations decrease rapidly through the boreal spring, indicating an inherent predictability limitation for large scale coupled oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Niño. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that the models are excellent facsimiles of the real system. They, too, encounter the predictability barrier and exhibit a substantial decrease in observation-prediction correlation across the boreal spring. Thus, a predictive system based solely on the interactive physics of the Pacific Basin appears limited to a maximum of less than one year and a minimum of only one or two months.Two hypotheses are made to explain the existence of the predictability barrier. First, it is argued that the tropical coupled system is at its frailest state during the boreal spring and that the signal-to-noise ratio is weakest. In such a system, maximum random error growth may occur as the atmosphere and the ocean become temporally detached and wander onto different climate trajectories. A series of 144 preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were conducted with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to test the hypothesis. Irrespective of when the experiments were commenced, error growth was maximized at the same time of the year. The second hypothesis suggests that the near-equatorial circulation is perturbed at the time of its weakest state by external influences such as the monsoon and that the climate wanderings are nudged deterministically. There is observational and theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis. Observations suggest that anomalous monsoons impart basin-wide coherent alterations of the wind stress field in the Pacific Ocean. Experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model show that the period of an ENSO event is altered substantially by an anomalous monsoon. Given that there appear to be precursors to anomalous monsoons, it is suggested that there may be ways to avoid the predictability barrier and thus extend prediction of the entire system.Finally, noting that the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they are combined to form a unified theory. As the asymmetric monsoonal and the symmetric near-equatorial heating are in approximate quadrature, it is argued that the monsoons influence the Walker circulation during the boreal spring. However, during the boreal fall and early winter the near-equatorial heating variability dominates the winter monsoon.With 18 Figures     

Biomass burning in the tropical savannas of Ivory Coast: An overview of the field experiment Fire of Savannas (FOS/DECAFE 91)

FOS/DECAFE 91 (Fire of Savannas/Dynamique et Chimie Atmosphérique en Forêt Equatoriale) was the first multidisciplinary experiment organized in Africa to determine gas and aerosol emissions by prescribed savanna fires. The humid savanna of Lamto in Ivory Coast was chosen for its ecological characteristics representative of savannas with a high biomass density (900 g m^–2 dry matter). Moreover the vegetation and the climate of Lamto have been studied for more than twenty years. The emission ratios (X/CO₂) of the carbon compounds (CO₂, CO, NMHC, CH₄, PAH, organic acids and aerosols), nitrogen compounds (NO_x, N₂O, NH₃ and soluble aerosols) and sulfur compounds (SO₂, COS and aerosols) were experimentally determined by ground and aircraft measurements. To perform this experiment, 4 small plots (100×100 m) and 2 large areas (10×10 km) were prepared and burnt in January 1991 during the period of maximum occurrence of fires in this type of savanna. The detailed ecological study shows that the carbon content of the vegetation is constant within 1% (42 g C for 100 g of vegetal dry matter), the nitrogen content (0.29 g N for 100 g of dry matter) may vary by 10% and the sulfur content (0.05 g S/100 d.m.) by 20%. These variations of the biomass chemical content do not constitute an important factor in the variation of the gas and particle emission levels. With the emission ratios characteristic of humid savanna and flaming conditions (CO/CO₂ of 6.1% at the ground and 8% for airborne measurements), we propose a set of new emission factors, taking into account the burning efficiency which is about 80%: 74.4% of the carbon content of the savanna biomass is released to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂, 4.6% as CO, 0.2% as CH₄, 0.5% as NMHC and 0.7% as aerosols. 17.2% of the nitrogen content of the biomass is released as NO_x, 3.5% as N₂O, 0.6% as NH₃ and 0.5% as soluble aerosols.     

On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles

Summary At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a bogussing scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.In this study, four commonly used bogus vortices are examined by comparing resultant forecast tracks in an environment at rest, and in a background flow that simulates a typical monsoon trough-subtropical ridge structure. There are three main findings, each of which has significance for operational tropical cyclone track prediction. First, great care is needed in the choice of the characteristics of the bogus vortex, such as the radius and magnitude of the maximum wind. Second, the tropical cyclone trajectories can be very sensitive to their initial position in the idealised environment. Third, the bogus vortex can substantially influence the environment, especially over longer time periods and for vortices of larger size.With 9 Figures     

Daily rainfall domains in Mallorca

Summary A Pearson Product Moment Correlation matrix for four years of daily rainfall from 96 sites on the island of Mallorca has been used to derive and map correlation fields and construct composite correlation fields for different parts of the island based on previously defined daily rainfall affinity areas. Significant variations in rainfall organisation over the island are revealed. These reflect the dominance of uplift and exposure by upland areas in the generation of rainfall, evidenced in strongly anisotropic correlation fields. Further anisotropy along lowland coasts normal to the relief trend indicate the role of local rainfall generation along sea-breeze fronts. Near isotropic fields for central island locations highlight the importance of local convection and local convergence between opposing sea breeze systems and inland convection. Linear correlation distance-decay trends are determined for the island and for the predetermined rainfall affinity areas, including estimates of distance-decay rates along field axes. A suite of exponential cone functions is derived to model the empirically observed fields, representing their typical bidimensional structure. Use of the fitted cones to model a typical rainfall day, where the rainfall distribution mimics quite closely the longer term average, yields quite good results and suggests that their use may be more appropriate than applying more conventional general interpolation techniques in the mapping of spatial rainfall distributions.With 14 Figures     

Textures exhibited by feldspars in the Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) of the bastard unit in the Upper Critical Zone,Western Bushveld Complex

Summary The Bastard Unit, overlying the Merensky Unit, is the uppermost and most complete of the cyclic units in the Upper Critical Zone and its upper contact is taken as the boundary between the Critical and Main Zones (as recommended by SACS, 1980). The Unit is different from underlying units for three reasons: it does not have a well-defined top contact (with an overlying unit); it is much thicker than the Merensky and Footwall Units; and it has an unusually thick sequence of mottled anorthosite at its top. This distinctive composite anorthositic sequence is termed the Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) which is predominantly made up of poikilitic anorthosite. The GMA can broadly be subdivided into three distinct parts; the Lower Giant Mottled Anorthosite (LGMA), Giant Mottled Middling (GMM) and the Upper Giant Mottled Anorthosite (UGMA).Petrographic examination of 82 samples taken in the GMA from 11 borehole profiles around the western limb of the Complex revealed that the LGMA and GMM are essentially adcumulates while the UGMA is orthocumulate in character. By its very nature the dominant phase throughout the GMA is cumulus plagioclase feldspar ( 85%) with the balance being made up of intercumulus orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene and minor biofite — all of which constitute the darker mottles. Intercumulus inverted pigeonite occurs in the upper part of the GMM, throughout the UGMA and for c. 30 m into the Main Zone. K-feldspar also joins the paragenesis within the UGMA and occurs both as intercumulus orthoclase and antiperthite. Cumulus plagioclase grains, showing varying degrees of complex oscillatory-zonal growth are common in the upper part of the GMA. These grains are interpreted as records of growth episodes during earlier influxes of magma which were responsible for the development of the underlying cyclic units, but escaped incorporation into the cumulate pile.

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Feldspat-Texturen im Giant Mottled Anorthosite der Bastard-Einheit in der oberen kritischen Zone des westlichen Bushveld-Komplexes

Zusammenfassung Die Bastard-Einheit, die die Merensky-Einheit überlagert, ist die oberste und am besten entwickelte der zyklischen Einheiten in der oberen kritischen Zone; ihr oberer Kontakt gilt als die Grenze zwischen der Kritischen und der Main-Zone (entsprechend den Empfehlungen von SACS, 1980). Die Einheit unterscheidet sich aus drei Gründen von den Einheiten im liegenden: sie hat keinen gut definierten oberen Kontakt (mit einer darüberliegenden Einheit), sie ist wesentlich mächtiger als die Merensky und die Footwall-Einheiten, und sie hat eine ungewöhnliche mächtige Abfolge von Mottled Anorthosite als obersten Teil der Abfolge. Diese wohldefinierte anorthositische Abfolge wird als Giant Mottled Anorthosite (GMA) bezeichnet, und besteht hauptsächlich aus poikilitischem Anorthosit. Die GMA kann in 3 Teile, den unteren (LGMA), den mittleren (GMM) un den oberen (UGMA) unterteilt werden.Die petrographische Untersuchung von 82 Proben in der GMA aus 11 Bohrlöchern im Westteil des Bushveld-Komplexes zeigt, daß LGMA und GMM im wesentlichen Adkumulate sind, während die UGMA ein Orthokumulat darstellt. Die Hauptphase in der gesamten GMA ist Kumulus-Plagioklas ( 85 %); der Rest besteht aus Intercumulus-Orthopyroxen, Klinopyroxen, und geringen Mengen von Biotit. Diese sind die Komponenten der dunkleren mottles. Intercumulus invertierter Pigeonit kommt im oberen Teil der GMM, in der gesamten UGMA und in den unteren 30 Metern der Main-Zone vor. Innerhalb der UGMA tritt K-Feldspat hinzu, dieser kommt als Intercumulus Orthoklas und Antiperthit vor. Körner von Cumulusplagioklas mit verschiedenen Intensitäten komplexer Zonierung sind im oberen Teil der GMA verbreitet. Diese Körner werden als Hinweise auf Wachstumsepisoden während früherer Magmenzufuhr-Phasen interpretiert, die für die Entwicklung der zyklischen Einheiten im Liegenden verantwortlich waren, aber selbst nicht Teil der Cumulatabfolge wurden.

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With 5 Figures     

Textures in a poikilitic olivine gabbro cumulate: Evidence for supercooling

Summary Supercooling of repeated influxes of high-MgO ( 13.5 wt% MgO) tholeiitic magma emplaced along the floor of the Kap Edvard Holm magma chamber led to the formation of fine grained, intraplutonic quench zones that define the bases of 12 macrorhythmic units. The quench zones grade upwards into poikilitic cumulates containing olivine dendrites, suggesting supercooling by 40°C. Supercooling led to early, precumulus crystallization of metastable, non-equilibrium plagioclase, followed by co-precipitation of cumulus plagioclase and olivine. Later nucleation of clinopyroxene followed by rapid growth led to crystallization of zoned oikocrysts during the cumulus stage, followed by postcumulus overgrowth and crystallization of discrete intercumulus grains. At least four generations of plagioclase crystals appear to be preserved.

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Gefüge in einem poikilitischen Olivingabbro-Kumulat: Hinweis auf Unterkühlung

Zusammenfassung Unterkühlung von mehrmals nachströmendem MgO-reichen (ca. 13,5 Gew.% MgO), tholeiitischen Magma, das sich am Boden der Magmenkammer vom Kap Edvard Holm sammelte, führte zur Bildung von feinkbrnigen Zonen mit Abschreckungsgefüge, die jeweils die Basis von 12 makrorhythmischen Einheiten bilden. Diese Zonen gehen im Hangenden in poikilitische Kumulate über, die Olivin-Dendriten enthalten, was auf eine Unterkühlung um ca. 40°C hindeutet. Die Unterkühlung führte zu einer frühen präkumulativen Kristallisation von metastabilem, nicht im Gleichgewicht befindlichem Plagioklas, gefolgt von gleichzeitiger Präzipitation von Kumulus-Plagioklas und -Olivin. Eine spätere Keimbildung von Klinopyroxen, die von raschem Wachstum abgelöst wurde, führte während der Akkumulation zur Kristallisation von zonierten Oikokrysten. Danach folgte eine postkumulative Überwachsung und die Kristallisation von Einzelkörnern in den Zwischenräumen. Zumindest vier Generationen von Plagioklaskristallen scheinen erhalten zu sein.

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With 5 Figures     

Potential cauchy-poisson waves generated by submarine eruptions of kick 'em Jenny volcano

Kick 'em Jenny is the only known currently active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles. The volcano has erupted at least 10 times since first being discovered in 1939 and the summit has shoaled from a depth of 232 m in 1962 to its present-day depth of 150 m. Kick 'em Jenny is located in a province of explosive volcanism, has a known history of explosive eruptions and erupts magma of an explosive type. Future eruptions are likely to become increasingly more violent as the effect of the overlying water pressure becomes less. A preliminary study (Smith and Shepherd, 1993) suggests that Kick 'em Jenny is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the eastern Caribbean region.The classic approach to problems of water waves generated by sudden disturbances of the free surface makes use of the Cauchy-Poisson-Lamb theory. A large number of theoretical developments to this theory have been made for specific forms of surface disturbance. A development by Unoki and Nakano (1953a, b) considers both two- and three-dimensional Cauchy-Poisson waves generated by finite initial elevations and impulses applied to a free surface of infinitely deep water. Unoki and Nakano's results compared well to the wave systems recorded following submarine eruptions of the Myojinsho Reef volcano in 1952–53.Given the similarity of the two situations, Unoki and Nakano's theory is applied to Kick 'em Jenny to provide estimates of potential Cauchy-Poisson wave heights throughout the eastern Caribbean for a range of eruption magnitudes. The results show that, although the waves generated are unlikely to pose much of a threat to the eastern Caribbean as a whole, they should be considered a hazard to the islands immediately adjacent to the volcano including Grenada, the Grenadines, and St Vincent.     

Crustal xenoliths from Calbuco Volcano,Andean Southern Volcanic Zone: implications for crustal composition and magma-crust interaction

Crustal xenoliths in the 1961 andesite flow of Calbuco Volcano, in the southern Southern Volcanic Zone (SSVZ) of the Andes, consist predominantly of pyroxene granulites and hornblende gabbronorites. The granulites contain plagioclase+pyroxene+magnetite±amphibole, and have pronounced granoblastic textures. Small amounts of relict amphibole surrounded by pyroxene-plagioclase-magnetite-glass symplectites are found in some specimens. These and similar textures in the gabbronorites are interpreted as evidence of dehydration melting. Mineral and bulk rock geochemical data indicate that the granulites are derived from an incompatible trace element depleted basaltic protolith that underwent two stages of metamorphism: a moderate pressure, high temperature stage accompanied by melting and melt extraction from some samples, followed by thermal metamorphism after entrainment in the Calbuco andesite lavas. High _Nd ^T values (+4.0 to +8.6), Nd-isotope model ages of 1.7–2.0 Ga, and trace element characteristics like chondrite normalized La/Yb< and La/Nb1 indicate that the protoliths were oceanic basalts. Similar oceanic metabasalts of greenschist to amphibolite facies are found in the Paleozoic metamorphic belt that underlies the Chilean coastal ranges. Mineral and bulk rock compositions of the gabbronorite xenoliths indicate that they are cognate, crystallizing from the basaltic andesite magma at Calbuco. Crystallization pressures for the gabbros based on total Al contents in amphibole are 6–8 kbar. These pressures point to middle to lower crustal storage of the Calbuco magma. Neither granulite nor gabbro xenoliths have the appropriate geochemical characteristics to be contaminants of Calbuco andesites, although an ancient sedimentary contaminant is indicated by the lava compositions. The presence of oceanic metabasaltic xenoliths, together with the sedimentary isotopic imprint, suggests that the lower crust beneath the volcano is analogous to the coastal metamorphic belt, which is an accretionary complex of intercalated basalts and sediments that formed along the Paleozoic Gondwanan margin. If this is the case, the geochemical composition of the lower and middle crust beneath the SSVZ is significantly different from that of most recent SSVZ volcanic rocks.     

Lithological and Structural Controls on Regional 3-D Fluid Flow Patterns during Greenschist Facies Metamorphism of the Dalradian of the SW Scottish Highlands

Greenschist facies metabasite sills enclosed within phyllitesand psammites of the Dalradian Supergroup of the SW ScottishHighlands have been used as quantitative sensors of fluid flow,from which ‘fossil’ fluid flow-paths have been mapped.Infiltration of H₂O–CO₂ fluid caused carbonation of themetabasite assemblage. Consequently, metabasite sills have developeda characteristic asymmetric zonation of reacted (carbonate-bearing)margins and unreacted (carbonate-absent) interiors. Reactionfront advection theory has been used to constrain the time-integratedfluid flux and flow direction in one dimension, for each sill,from the widths of the reacted margins. Three-dimensional fluxesand flow directions have been constrained from one-dimensionalfluxes by geometrical computation, and regional fluid flow patternshave been deduced. On a regional scale, fluid flow was channelled through phyllitesand focused towards the axial zone of major antiformal foldstructures. Fluid flow was channelled through the 6 km thickArdrishaig Phyllites, within which fluid fluxes were found toincrease exponentially with proximity to the axial surface ofthe Ardrishaig Anticline. Fluid flow through the psammites waslimited to narrow zones of intense deformation associated withmetabasic or phyllitic intercalations. Although time-integratedfluid fluxes were locally high (4 10² m³/m²), average fluxes(100 m¹/m²) are compatible with availability of fluid from underlyingdevolatilizing rocks. Complete isotopic homogenization of phyllites,psammites and metabasites within the axial region of the ArdrishaigAnticline is predicted by these high measured fluxes. KEY WORDS: 3-D flow; Dalradian; SW Scotland; greenschist facies; metabasites ^*Corresponding author. Telephone: 0131-650-5885 Fax: 0131-668-3184 E-mail: askelton{at}glg.ed.ac.uk