Influence of Solar-Geophysical Factors on the State of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The stratospheric polar vortex is one of the most important connecting links between solar activity and circulation of the lower atmosphere at extratropical latitudes....     

Possible Contribution of Variations in the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux to the Global Temperature Rise in Recent Decades

The field area of the Earth’s lower (<3.2 km) clouds is shown to correlate significantly with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays in 1983–2010, with the sign of correlation reversing in 2003. The same effect is discovered in the correlation between air temperatures in various regions of the Earth and the relativistic electron fluxes with energies of 30–300 KeV that precipitate in winter (December–February). An energy-balance climate model is used to estimate the possible contribution of lower clouds to the globally averaged temperature in the indicated period. It is shown that the consideration of lower clouds as a radiative forcing allows one to explain the global warming of the last 30 years without employing the hypothesis of anthropogenic greenhouse heating.

     

Forced imbibition into a limestone: measuring P‐wave velocity and water saturation dependence on injection rate

Quantitative interpretation of time‐lapse seismic data requires knowledge of the relationship between elastic wave velocities and fluid saturation. This relationship is not unique but depends on the spatial distribution of the fluid in the pore‐space of the rock. In turn, the fluid distribution depends on the injection rate. To study this dependency, forced imbibition experiments with variable injection rates have been performed on an air‐dry limestone sample. Water was injected into a cylindrical sample and was monitored by X‐Ray Computed Tomography and ultrasonic time‐of‐flight measurements across the sample. The measurements show that the P‐wave velocity decreases well before the saturation front approaches the ultrasonic raypath. This decrease is followed by an increase as the saturation front crosses the raypath. The observed patterns of the acoustic response and water saturation as functions of the injection rate are consistent with previous observations on sandstone. The results confirm that the injection rate has significant influence on fluid distribution and the corresponding acoustic response. The complexity of the acoustic response —‐ that is not monotonic with changes in saturation, and which at the same saturation varies between hydrostatic conditions and states of dynamic fluid flow – may have implications for the interpretation of time‐lapse seismic responses.     

Study of spatial and temporal structure of long-term effects of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the lower atmosphere circulation

The spatial and temporal structure of the effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux variations on the lower atmosphere circulation has been studied based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis archive for 1948–2006 and MSLP (Climatic Research Unit, UK) data for 1873–2000. It has been shown that the GCR effects on pressure variations are characterized by a strong latitudinal and regional dependence, which is determined by specific features of the tropospheric circulation in the studied regions. The distribution of the correlation coefficients for mean yearly values of atmospheric pressure with the GCR flux intensity is closely related to the position of the main climatological fronts. The periodic (∼60 years) changes in the correlation sign of the pressure at high and middle latitudes with Wolf numbers have been revealed. It has been suggested that the changes of the sign of SA/GCR effects on atmospheric pressure are caused by the changes of the macrocirculation epochs, which, in turn, may be related to large-scale processes on the Sun.     

Missing solar cycle hypothesis and basic statistical regularities of solar cycles

The basic statistical properties of solar cycles, including the Gnevyshev-Ol?? rule, the Waldmeier effect, and the amplitude-period effect, are tested using data on the number of sunspot groups for 1700?C1996, considering the hypothesis about a missing solar cycle in the late 18th century. The results show that the division of the long cycle of 1784?C1800 into two short cycles??1784?C1793 and 1793?C1800??alters significantly the pattern of the solar cycles. The Gnevyshev-Ol?? cycle intensity effect becomes stronger, and almost all other statistical effects grow weaker. This change is due to the fact that the short and weak cycle of 1793?C1800 is statistically very unusual and its features are very different from those of other solar cycles.     

Random forests as a tool to understand the snow depth distribution and its evolution in mountain areas

The small scale distribution of the snowpack in mountain areas is highly heterogeneous, and is mainly controlled by the interactions between the atmosphere and local topography. However, the influence of different terrain features in controlling variations in the snow distribution depends on the characteristics of the study area. As this leads to uncertainties in high spatial resolution snowpack simulations, a deeper understanding of the role of terrain features on the small scale distribution of snow depth is required. This study applied random forest algorithms to investigate the temporal evolution of snow depth in complex alpine terrain using as predictors various topographical variables and in situ snow depth observations at a single location. The high spatial resolution (1 m x 1 m) snow depth distribution database used in training and evaluating the random forests was derived from terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) devices at three study sites, in the French Alps (2 sites) and the Spanish Pyrenees (1 site). The results show the major importance of two topographic variables, the topographic position index and the maximum upwind slope parameter. For these variables the search distances and directions depended on the characteristics of each site and the TLS acquisition date, but are consistent across sites and are tightly related to main wind directions. The weight of the different topographic variables on explaining snow distribution evolves while major snow accumulation events still take place and minor changes are observed after reaching the annual snow accumulation peak. Random forests have demonstrated good performance when predicting snow distribution for the sites included in the training set with R² values ranging from 0.82 to 0.94 and mean absolute errors always below 0.4 m. Oppositely, this algorithm failed when used to predict snow distribution for sites not included in the training set, with mean absolute errors above 0.8 m.     

Middle to late Pleistocene record of explosive volcanic eruptions in marine sediments offshore Kamchatka (Meiji Rise,NW Pacific)

This paper presents the first detailed study of a late Pleistocene marine tephra sequence from the NW Pacific, downwind from the Kamchatka volcanic arc. Sediment core SO201-2-40, located on the Meiji Rise ~400 km offshore the peninsula, includes 25 tephras deposited within the last 215 ka. Volcanic glass from the tephras was characterized using single-shard electron microprobe analysis and laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry. The age of tephras was derived from a new age model based on paleomagnetic and paleoclimate studies. Geochemical correlation of distal tephras to Kamchatkan pyroclastic deposits allowed the identification of tephras from the Karymsky, Gorely, Opala and Shiveluch eruptive centers. Three of these tephras were also correlated to other marine and terrestrial sites and hence are identified as the best markers for the north-west Pacific region. These are an early Holocene tephra from the Karymsky caldera (~8.7 ka) and two tephras falling into the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 glacial time: an MIS 6.4 tephra from Shiveluch (~141 ka) and the MIS 6.5 Rauchua tephra (~175 ka) from Karymsky. The data presented in this study can be used in paleovolcanological and paleoceanographic reconstructions.     

Paleomagnetism of Cretaceous units of the Mametchinskiy Peninsula, Kuyul Region, Northeastern Russia: implications for development and evolution of the Northwest Pacific Basin

The northernmost part of the Kamchatka Peninsula of northeastern Russia, located along the northwestern margin of the Bering Sea, consists of zones of complexly deformed accreted terranes. Progressing from the northwestern Bering Sea inland are the Olyutorskiy, Ukelayat, and Koryak superterranes, which were accreted to the Okhotsk–Chukotsk volcanic–plutonic belt (OChVB) during the Campanian–Maastrichtian (Koryak) to Middle Eocene (Olyutorskiy), respectively. To constrain the accretion paleolatitude of the Koryak superterrane, we paleomagnetically sampled a sedimentary series on the Mametchinskiy Peninsula. At the Mametchinskiy Peninsula, in the northeastern Penzhinskaya Guba (61.45° N, 163.75° E), a gently deformed, well-bedded section of fine-grained Lower to lower Upper Cretaceous turbidites, the Mametchinskaya and Tylakrylskaya Formations are exposed. These strata, which represent the lower part of the sedimentary cover of the terranes in this region and the forearc of OChVB, were sampled at 39 sites (three to seven samples per site). Within the Ainyn terrane, more than 1000 m of section of Cenomanian–Turonian age was sampled at a basal locality (sample groups I and II, sites 1–18, 19–29) and at an upper locality of Valanginian–Barremian age (sample group III, sites 30–39) along the western shore of the Peninsula. Thermal demagnetization and principal component analysis of the demagnetization data show lower-temperature (A) and higher-temperature (B) magnetic components. Although group III samples did not display a coherent A component, the A component of group I and II samples was observed as a single-polarity lower-unblocking temperature component generally removed by 100–400 °C. This component failed the fold test at the 95% confidence level. With respect to direction, the A component is similar to both the present-day field and axial–geocentric dipole directions expected at this site. The B component was observed during thermal demagnetization steps up to 580 °C and was always of downward-directed inclination. Coherence of bedding corrections within each section do not allow statistically meaningful fold tests within groups I, II or III. Assuming the B component represents a Cretaceous magnetization, two overall models are proposed. In the first model (preferred), with the highest clustering of directions (k-value=36.7, N (sites)=36), indicates significant poleward motion of the Ainyn terrane (observed paleolatitude λ_M1=61.0±6.5°; expected North America plate reference site paleolatitude λ_E=74.0±3.5°). In the second model, no significant poleward displacement is implied (λ_M2=72.0±9.6).     

Equal-Area Projections of the Triaxial Ellipsoid: First Time Derivation and Implementation of Cylindrical and Azimuthal Projections for Small Solar System Bodies

Many small solar system bodies such as asteroids or small satellites have irregular shapes, often approximated by the reference surface of a triaxial ellipsoid. Map projections for the triaxial ellipsoid are needed to present the incoming data in the form of maps. In this paper the formulae of equal-area cylindrical and azimuthal projections of the triaxial ellipsoid were derived and practically implemented for the first time using as an example the asteroid 253 Mathilde. This paper is the final in a series of papers devoted to all main classes of projections of the triaxial ellipsoid. Before this, the authors obtained equidistant along meridians projection and Jacobi conformal projection for the triaxial ellipsoid.