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111.
临界转换的早期预警信号 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marten Scheffer George Sugihara Jordi Bascompte Victor Brovkin Vasilis Dakos Hermann Held Max Rietkerk 李迎春 闫伟 蒋长胜 《国际地震动态》2009,(9):1-14
从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。 相似文献
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113.
MIKE WALKER Martin J. Head John Lowe Max Berkelhammer Svante Bj
rck Hai Cheng Les C. Cwynar David Fisher Vasileios Gkinis Antony Long Rewi Newnham Sune Olander Rasmussen Harvey Weiss 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(3):173-186
The Holocene, which currently spans ~11 700 years, is the shortest series/epoch within the geological time scale (GTS), yet it contains a rich archive of evidence in stratigraphical contexts that are frequently continuous and often preserved at high levels of resolution. On 14 June 2018, the Executive Committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences formally ratified a proposal to subdivide the Holocene into three stages/ages, along with their equivalent subseries/subepochs, each anchored by a Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). The new stages are the Greenlandian (Lower/Early Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP2 ice core and dated at 11 700 a b2k (before 2000 CE); the Northgrippian (Middle Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in the Greenland NGRIP1 ice core and dated at 8236 a b2k; and the Meghalayan (Upper/Late Holocene Subseries/Subepoch) with its GSSP in a speleothem from Mawmluh Cave, north‐eastern India, with a date of 4250 a b2k. We explain the nomenclature of the new divisions, describe the procedures involved in the ratification process, designate auxiliary stratotypes to support the GSSPs and consider the implications of the subdivision for defining the Anthropocene as a new unit within the GTS. 相似文献
114.
The response of summer precipitation in the western United States to climate variability remains a subject of uncertainty. For example, palaeoclimate records indicate the North American Monsoon (NAM) was stronger and spatially more extensive during the Holocene, whereas recent modelling suggests a weakened NAM response to increasing temperatures. These illustrate diverging pictures of the NAM response to warming. Here, we examine summer precipitation in the southwestern US related to Last Interglacial insolation forcing. Using a high-resolution climate model, we find that Eemian insolation forcing results in overall wetter conditions throughout most of the southwestern US, but significantly drier than present conditions over Arizona. The overall wetter conditions are associated with a northward shift of the anticyclonic circulation aloft and increased moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere during the Eemian. Increased advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture is responsible for increasing precipitation in New Mexico and the northern edges of the NAM region. Drier conditions over Arizona are likely related to reduced local convection associated with reduced vertical moisture transport. These results highlight the spatial complexity of the NAM response to increasing radiative forcing and allow a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and variability in response to a warming climate. 相似文献
115.
A geochemical study of 29 acid gneisses from the Annagh Division of the Erris Complex has shown that all lithologies are chemically distinct and that further distinction can be made between different areas. The acid and intermediate gneisses, which in the field have been regarded as orthogneisses associated with widespread metasomatism, have orthogneiss chemistry and show the effects of considerable local metasomatism. Isotopic age dating records that the latest major pre-Caledonian event in the Annagh Gneiss is of Grenvillian age. The Annagh Division gneiss differs chemically from Laxford gneiss but is similar to reworked Lewisian inliers seen in the N.W. Highlands of Scotland.All analysed basic rocks fall into three categories: early basic and ultrabasic pods and metadolerite dykes. All originated as minor intrusives of tholeiitic affinities. 相似文献
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Recently, a number of “Payment for Watershed Services” programs have aimed to engage private landowners in watershed stewardship initiatives by offering financial incentives for adopting watershed best management practices. However, a growing field of research suggests that financial incentives alone may be of limited utility to encourage widespread and long-standing behavior change, and other policy tools may be required. This research examines how attitudes may influence enrollment in watershed stewardship programs to shed light the application of incentive, capacity building, and symbolic policy tools. We distributed a questionnaire to rural landowners in the Clackamas River watershed, OR, and received 281 valid responses (29% response rate). We found that attitudes associated with trust, ecological understanding, and technical capacity played more fundamental roles compared with financial considerations. We interpret these findings by evaluating the likely efficacy of various policy tools, and stress the importance of engaging landowners by building capacity and trust. 相似文献
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119.
Max D. Morris 《Mathematical Geology》1991,23(7):929-943
In planning spatial sampling studies for the purpose of estimating the semivariogram, the number of data pairs separated by a given distance is sometimes used as a comparative index of the precision which can be expected from a given sampling design. Because spatial data are correlated, this index can be unreliable. An alternative index which partially corrects for this correlation, themaximum equivalent uncorrelated pairs, is proposed for comparing spatial designs. The index is developed under the assumption that the underlying stochastic process is Gaussian and is appropriate when the (population) semivariogram is to be estimated by the sample semivariogram. 相似文献
120.
The magnetic method is the oldest and one of the most widely used geophysical techniques for exploring the earth’s subsurface.
It is a relatively easy and inexpensive tool to employ, being applicable to a wide variety of subsurface exploration problems
involving horizontal magnetic property variations occurring from near the base of the crust to within the uppermost meter
of soil. Successful applications of the magnetic method require an in-depth understanding of its basic principles and careful
field work, data reduction, and interpretation. Commonly, interpretations are limited to qualitative approaches which simply
map the spatial location of anomalous subsurface conditions, but under favourable circumstances the technological status of
the method will permit more quantitative interpretations involving specification of the nature of the anomalous sources. No
other geophysical method provides critical input to such a wide variety of problems. However, seldom does the magnetic method
provide the complete answer to an investigation problem. As a result, it is generally used in concert with other geophysical
and geological data to limit its interpretational ambiguities. 相似文献