Time-scales of recent Phlegrean Fields eruptions inferred from the application of a ‘diffusive fractionation’ model of trace elements

The variation of chemical element compositions in two pyroclastic sequences (Astroni 6 and Averno 2, Phlegrean Fields, Italy) is studied. Both sequences are compositionally zoned indicating a variability of melt compositions in the magma chamber prior to eruption. A clear dichotomy between the behaviour of major vs. trace elements is also observed in both sequences, with major elements displaying nearly linear inter-elemental trends and trace elements showing a variable scattered behaviour. Together with previous petrological investigations these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that magma mixing processes played a key role in the evolution of these two magmatic systems. Recently it has been suggested that mixing processes in igneous systems may strongly influence the mobility of trace elements inducing a ‘diffusive fractionation’ phenomenon, whose extent depends on the mixing time-scale. Here we merge information from 1) numerical simulations of magma mixing, and 2) magma mixing experiments (using as end-members natural compositions from Phlegrean Fields) to derive a relationship relating the degree of ‘diffusive fractionation’ to the mixing time-scales. Application of the ‘diffusive fractionation’ model to the two studied pyroclastic sequences allowed us to apply the relationship derived by numerical simulations and experiments to estimate the mixing time-scales for these two magmatic systems. Results indicate that mixing processes in Astroni 6 and Averno 2 systems lasted for approximately 2 and 9 days, respectively, prior to eruption.     

Time variant analysis of geomagnetic signals describes the volcanic activity of Mt. Etna between early 2000 and late 2002

Volcanomagnetic anomalies have been mostly observed during strong eruptions. Our aim is to improve the geomagnetic data analysis to evidence the anomalies occurring in a larger time span, especially in the phases preceding the eruptive events. We developed a time variant statistical approach and applied it to the 2000–2002 Etna geomagnetic temporal series. It is based on an algorithm that statistically predicts the geomagnetic field at the station on the volcanic edifice by that recorded at the remote one. In such a way a number of significant changes in the time series (called statistical innovations), marking the local magnetic field change, were detected. The distribution of such statistical innovations accurately describes the Etna volcanic evolution: we note a progressive increase of the innovation occurrence as the eruptive cycles were approaching and only few and weak innovations at times between the various eruptive cycles. The significance of this analysis is further confirmed by the close agreement among the mean square prediction error, strain release and the volcanic activity behavior. On the contrary, the geomagnetic field at a single station or its difference at two stations do not have any clear correlation with other measured physical quantities. The complex pattern of the prediction error was also investigated by a multifractal analysis. We found that the Holder regularity increases with the intensification of the volcanic activity, implying that innovations tend to be less sporadic and correlated during the major volcanic phases.     

Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI): innovation and multi-disciplinarity to sense the hydrological cycle

To promote the advancement of novel observation techniques that may lead to new sources of information to help better understand the hydrological cycle, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) established the Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI) Working Group in July 2013. The group comprises a growing community of tech-enthusiastic hydrologists that design and develop their own sensing systems, adopt a multi-disciplinary perspective in tackling complex observations, often use low-cost equipment intended for other applications to build innovative sensors, or perform opportunistic measurements. This paper states the objectives of the group and reviews major advances carried out by MOXXI members toward the advancement of hydrological sciences. Challenges and opportunities are outlined to provide strategic guidance for advancement of measurement, and thus discovery.     

Effects of levee cover strength on flood mapping in the case of levee breach due to overtopping

The reliability of a levee system is a crucial factor in flood risk management. In this study we present a probabilistic methodology to assess the effects of levee cover strength on levee failure probability, triggering time, flood propagation and consequent impacts on population and assets. A method for determining fragility curves is used in combination with the results of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model to estimate the conditional probability of levee failure in each river section. Then, a levee breach model is applied to calculate the possible flood hydrographs, and for each breach scenario a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to estimate flood hazard (flood extent and timing, maximum water depths) and flood impacts (economic damage and affected population) in the areas at risk along the river reach. We show an application for levee overtopping and different flood scenarios for a 98 km reach of the lower Po River in Italy. The results show how different design solutions for the levee cover can influence the probability of levee failure and the consequent flood scenarios. In particular, good grass cover strength can significantly delay levee failure and reduce maximum flood depths in the flood-prone areas, thus helping the implementation of flood risk management actions.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

Maximum run-up,breaking conditions and dynamical forces in the swash zone: a boundary value approach

On the basis of the approximate analytical solution for the nonlinear shallow water equations of Antuono and Brocchini [M. Antuono & M. Brocchini, The boundary value problem for the nonlinear shallow water equation, Stud. Appl. Maths, 119, 71–91 (2007).], we propose useful regression curves for the prediction of maximum run-up and dynamical forces in the swash zone on a frictionless, uniformly sloping beach. For the first time the dependence of the results on both the wave height and the wave steepness is analyzed in detail providing formulae able to describe a wide class of wave inputs. Finally, the regression formulae are validated through comparison with maximum run-up laws and breaking conditions already available in the literature, the present model results appearing to better account for nonlinear effects.     

Decomposition of mangrove roots: Effects of location,nutrients, species identity and mix in a Kenyan forest

Mangrove trees may allocate >50% of their biomass to roots. Dead roots often form peat, which can make mangroves significant carbon sinks and allow them to raise the soil surface and thus survive rising sea levels. Understanding mangrove root production and decomposition is hence of theoretical and applied importance. The current work explored the effects of species, site, and root size and root nutrients on decomposition. Decomposition of fine (≤3 mm diameter) and coarse (>3 mm diameter, up to a maximum of ∼9 mm) roots from three mangrove species, Avicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Ceriops tagal was measured over 12 months at 6 sites along a tidal gradient in Gazi Bay, Kenya. C:N and P:N ratios in fresh and decomposed roots were measured, and the effects on decomposition of root size and age, of mixing roots from A. marina and C. tagal, of enriching B. gymnorrhiza roots with N and P and of artefacts caused by bagging roots were recorded. There were significant differences between species, with 76, 47 and 44 % mean dry weight lost after one year for A. marina, B. gymnorrhiza and C. tagal respectively, and between sites, with generally slower decomposition at dryer, high tidal areas. N enriched B. gymnorrhiza roots decomposed significantly faster than un-enriched controls; there was no effect of P enrichment. Mixing A. marina and C. tagal roots caused significantly enhanced decomposition in C. tagal. These results suggest that N availability was an important determinant of decomposition, since differences between species reflected the initial C: N ratios. The relatively slow decomposition rates recorded concur with other studies, and may overestimate natural rates, since larger (10–20 mm diameter), more mature and un-bagged roots all showed significantly slower rates.     

The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperature series 1760–2007

Instrumental temperature recording in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) began in the year 1760. Prior to the 1850–1870 period, after which screens of different types protected the instruments, thermometers were insufficiently sheltered from direct sunlight so were normally placed on north-facing walls or windows. It is likely that temperatures recorded in the summer half of the year were biased warm and those in the winter half biased cold, with the summer effect dominating. Because the changeover to screens often occurred at similar times, often coincident with the formation of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in the GAR, it has been difficult to determine the scale of the problem, as all neighbour sites were likely to be similarly affected. This paper uses simultaneous measurements taken for eight recent years at the old and modern site at Kremsmünster, Austria to assess the issue. The temperature differences between the two locations (screened and unscreened) have caused a change in the diurnal cycle, which depends on the time of year. Starting from this specific empirical evidence from the only still existing and active early instrumental measuring site in the region, we developed three correction models for orientations NW through N to NE. Using the orientation angle of the buildings derived from metadata in the station histories of the other early instrumental sites in the region (sites across the GAR in the range from NE to NW) different adjustments to the diurnal cycle are developed for each location. The effect on the 32 sites across the GAR varies due to different formulae being used by NMSs to calculate monthly means from the two or more observations made at each site each day. These formulae also vary with time, so considerable amounts of additional metadata have had to be collected to apply the adjustments across the whole network. Overall, the results indicate that summer (April to September) average temperatures are cooled by about 0.4°C before 1850, with winters (October to March) staying much the same. The effects on monthly temperature averages are largest in June (a cooling from 0.21° to 0.93°C, depending on location) to a slight warming (up to 0.3°C) at some sites in February. In addition to revising the temperature evolution during the past centuries, the results have important implications for the calibration of proxy climatic data in the region (such as tree ring indices and documentary data such as grape harvest dates). A difference series across the 32 sites in the GAR indicates that summers since 1760 have warmed by about 1°C less than winters.