Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.     

Speciation of dissolved copper and cadmium in the Loire estuary and over the North Biscay continental shelf in spring

Dissolved cadmium and copper species were measured in the Loire estuary and the North Biscay Bay continental shelf (France) in spring 2002. Metal behaviours along the salinity gradient, metal fluxes from the Loire system and surface distributions on the continental shelf were described and compared with the ones obtained at a period of higher discharge (i.e., winter 2001). Vertical distributions at different stations were also examined with the aim to assess whether the Loire inputs affect the Cu and Cd speciation over the continental shelf. In the Loire estuary, different metal behaviours were observed from winter. Cu and its various species mostly followed a theoretical dilution line whereas a Cd addition composed of chloro- and organic complexes was observed. According to our estimations, the Cu flux was composed, as in winter, of 40% hydrophobic organic complexes. On the other hand, Cd organic complexes accounted for less in the total dissolved metal flux than they did in winter (55 and 78% for spring and winter, respectively). On the continental shelf, a C₁₈Cu-to-TDCu ratio of 40% was observed in the stratified area under Loire influence. For Cd, the organic fraction was relatively important in the surface waters near the mouth of the estuary and decreased deeper and seaward. Thus, the Cu and Cd speciation on the North Biscay Bay continental shelf are firstly determined by the extent of the estuarine plume. Beyond the estuarine influence, biological processes appeared to be the origin of the observed variations.     

Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling with radar rainfall input: Reconstruction of the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic flood event in the Gard region,France

On 8–9 September 2002, an extreme rainfall event caused by a stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred in the Gard region, France. Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling has been carried out to assess and compare the various sources of data collected operationally and during the post-event field surveys. Distributed hydrological modelling was performed with n-TOPMODELs and assessed for ungauged basins with the discharge estimates of the post-event surveys. A careful examination of the occurrence in time and space of the flash floods over the head watersheds indicates that flooding was controlled by the trajectory of the convective part of the MCS. Stationarity of the MCS over the Gardon watershed (1858 km² at Remoulins) for 28 h was responsible for the exceptional magnitude of the flood at this scale. The flood dynamics were characterized by an extensive inundation of the Gardonnenque plain upstream of the Gardon Gorges resulting in a significant peak flow reduction downstream. One-dimensional unsteady-flow hydraulic modelling was found to be required to reproduce these dynamics. Hydraulic modelling also proved to be potentially useful for the critical analysis and extrapolation of operational discharge rating curves.     

Apparent tidal influence on magmatic activity at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano,Tanzania, as observed in Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data

This paper investigates the relative timing of solid Earth tides and thermal anomalies associated with volcanic activity at Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), Tanzania, from 2000 to 2008. The low viscosity of OL's carbonatite magmas may make it particularly susceptible to tidal stresses. Thermal data from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were filtered using the MODLEN algorithm and Earth tides were modeled using TSoft. Application of the Schuster and Chi-squared tests resulted in apparent correlations between times of thermal anomalies and the phase of the semi-diurnal and biannual solid Earth tides. However, for semi-diurnal and biannual tides limited acquisition times of the MODIS data account for the apparent correlations. Re-examining the data while accounting for the bias introduced by the limited acquisition times, correlations are no longer found. Onset times of eruptive events and times of thermal anomalies show no statistically significant correlation with the fortnightly tide, indicating this is not an influence on activity at OL. Tidal influences on magmatic activity, if at all present, cannot be observed in coarse resolution thermal data on semi-diurnal and fortnightly time scales. Based on the available data, correlations on biannual timescales cannot be ruled out.     

Mineralogy of carbonaceous chondritic microclasts in howardites: identification of C2 fossil micrometeorites

Seventy-one carbonaceous chondritic microclasts of average size 150 μm have been found in three howardites (Yamato-793497, Jodzie, Kapoeta). All carbonaceous chondritic microclasts are made of a fine-grained phyllosilicate-rich matrix supporting a variety of minerals such as olivine, pyroxene, spinel, iron oxides, iron-nickel sulfides, and calcium carbonates. Such a mineralogy is typical of chondritic C2 matter. Half of the carbonaceous chondritic microclasts are tochilinite-rich, and have been tentatively called CM2 microclasts. The other half are magnetite-rich, and have been tentatively called CR2 microclasts. The absence of a correlation between the CM2/CR2 ratio in carbonaceous chondritic microclasts and in numerous millimeter-sized clasts found in the same sections argues for carbonaceous chondritic microclasts being true micrometeorites rather than fragments of larger objects. Dynamical simulations show that it is possible for asteroidal dust to encounter Vesta (the howardite’s putative parent-asteroid) at velocity low enough (<1 km.s⁻¹) to prevent fragmentation. Because the micrometeorite flux in the inner Solar System has been decreasing with time, we argue that carbonaceous chondritic microclasts have been trapped in Vesta’s regolith early in the history of the Solar System and are fossil micrometeorites. Because both microclasts and clasts found in howardites are related to C2 chondritic matter, we propose that C2 matter represents the bulk, or at least a significant fraction of the primordial howardite parent-asteroid. Considering the abundance of C2 matter among fossil micrometeorites, we speculate that the C2 fossil micrometorites are the so far unidentified agent of the late chondritic veneer that endowed the Earth’s mantle with an excess of siderophile elements relative to the contents predicted by the core-mantle separation models. The discovery that C2 fossil micrometeorites are similar to C2 modern Antarctic micrometeorites supports recent models proposing a micrometeoritic origin for the Earth’s oceans and volatile species.     

Improving estuarine net flux estimates for dissolved cadmium export at the annual timescale: Application to the Gironde Estuary

Dissolved Cd (Cd_D) concentrations along the salinity gradient were measured in surface water of the Gironde Estuary during 15 cruises (2001–2007), covering a wide range of contrasting situations in terms of hydrology, turbidity and season. During all situations dissolved Cd concentrations displayed maximum values in the mid-salinity range, reflecting Cd addition by chloride-induced desorption and complexation. The daily net Cd_D fluxes from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean were estimated using Boyle's method. Extrapolating Cd_D concentrations in the high salinity range to the freshwater end member using a theoretical dilution line produced 15 theoretical Cd concentrations (Cd_D⁰), each representative of one distinct situation. The obtained Cd_D⁰ concentrations were relatively similar (201 ± 28 ng L⁻¹) when freshwater discharge Q was >500 m³ s⁻¹ (508 ≤ Q ≤ 2600 m³ s⁻¹), but were highly variable (340 ± 80 ng L⁻¹; 247–490 ng L⁻¹) for low discharge situations (169 ≤ Q ≤ 368 m³ s⁻¹). The respective daily Cd_D net fluxes were 5–39 kg day⁻¹, mainly depending on freshwater discharge. As this observation invalidates the existing method of estimating annual Cd_D net fluxes, we proposed an empirical model, using representative Cd_D⁰ values and daily freshwater discharges for the 2001–2007 period. Subsequent integration produced reliable Cd_D net flux estimates for the Gironde Estuary at the annual timescale that ranged between 3.8–5.0 t a⁻¹ in 2005 and 6.0–7.2 t a⁻¹ in 2004, depending on freshwater discharge. Comparing Cd_D net fluxes with the incoming Cd_D fluxes suggested that the annual net Cd_D addition in the Gironde Estuary ranged from 3.5 to 6.7 t a⁻¹, without any clear temporal trend during the past seven years. The annual Cd_D net fluxes did not show a clearly decreasing trend in spite of an overall decrease by a factor 6 in Cd gross fluxes during the past decade. Furthermore, in six years out of seven (except 2003), the annual Cd_D net fluxes even exceeded river borne total (dissolved + particulate) gross Cd fluxes into the estuary. These observations were attributed to progressive Cd desorption from both suspended particles and bottom sediment during various sedimentation–resuspension cycles induced by tidal currents and/or continuous dredging (navigation channel) and diverse intra-estuarine sources (wet deposition, urban sources, and agriculture). Provided that gross fluxes remain stable over time, dissolved Cd exportation from the Gironde Estuary to the coastal ocean may remain at the present level for the coming decade and the estuarine sedimentary Cd stock is forecast to decrease slowly.     

Evolution of a carbonate delta generated by gateway‐funnelling of episodic currents

Cool‐water carbonate sedimentation has dominated Mediterranean shelves since the Early Pliocene. Skeletal sand and gravel herein consist of remains of heterozoan organisms, which are susceptible to reworking due to weak early cementation in non‐tropical waters. This study documents the Lower Pleistocene carbonate wedge of Favignana Island (Italy), which prograded from a 5   km wide passage between two palaeo‐islands into a perpendicular, 10 to 15   km wide strait between the palaeo‐islands at one side and Sicily at the other during the Emilian highstand (1·6   Ma to 1·1   Ma). The clinoformed carbonate wedge, which is 50   m thick and 6   km long, formed by east/south‐east progradation of a platform on the submarine sill by currents that were funnelled between the two palaeo‐islands. Platform‐slope clinoforms evolved from initial aggradation (thin and low‐angle) into a progradation phase (thick and high‐angle). Both clinoform types are characterized by a bimodal facies stacking pattern defined by sedimentary structures created by: (i) subaqueous dunes associated with dilute subcritical currents; and (ii) upper‐flow‐regime bedforms associated with sediment‐laden supercritical turbidity currents. Focusing of episodic currents on the platform by funnelling between the islands controlled the downstream formation of a sediment body, here named carbonate delta. The carbonate delta interfingers with subaqueous dune deposits formed in the perpendicular strait. This study uses a reconstruction of bedform dynamics to unravel the evolution of this gateway‐related carbonate accumulation.     

The role of boundary conditions in numerical models of subduction zone dynamics

Numerical studies of subduction zone dynamics on a regional scale usually use a limited spatial extent for their models and therefore need to define boundary conditions on all model edges. These boundary conditions imply a choice for the mechanical and thermal state of the surrounding regions which may influence the evolution of the model system. We investigate the role of the surface and lateral boundary conditions for simple mechanical subduction models using a standard finite element method. We find that subduction is only possible if the slab can decouple from the surface. This decoupling can be achieved by a true free surface, a free-slip surface with a weak crust for the subducting plate, or a free-slip surface with a layer of low viscosity, low density material (‘sticky air’) between the model surface and the crust. Models of slab dynamics that employ a free-slip surface reproduce trench migration, slab sinking velocities and slab geometry of models with a free surface, as long as they use either a weak crust, which can be viscous, viscoelastic and/or brittle, or a ‘sticky air’ layer. The vertical topography will however not be reproduced for free-slip models without a ‘sticky air’ layer. For ocean–ocean convergent models we find that the application of inflow boundary conditions at the edges of the subducting or overriding lithosphere controls trench motion and the geometry of the subducting slab. Inflow on the overriding side causes trench retreat and a slab resting on the lower mantle, whereas inflow restricted to the subducting side can cause trench advance and a slab which folds on the lower mantle.