Predicting gully densities at sub-continental scales: a case study for the Horn of Africa

Despite its environmental and scientific significance, predicting gully erosion remains problematic. This is especially so in strongly contrasting and degraded regions such as the Horn of Africa. Machine learning algorithms such as random forests (RF) offer great potential to deal with the complex, often non-linear, nature of factors controlling gully erosion. Nonetheless, their applicability at regional to continental scales remains largely untested. Moreover, such algorithms require large amounts of observations for model training and testing. Collecting such data remains an important bottleneck. Here we help to address these gaps by developing and testing a methodology to simulate gully densities across Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti (total area: 1.2 million km²). We propose a methodology to quickly assess the gully head density (GHD) for representative 1 km² study sites by visually scoring the presence of gullies in Google Earth and then converting these scores to realistic estimates of GHD. Based on this approach, we compiled GHD observations for 1,700 sites. We used these data to train sets of RF regression models that simulate GHD at a 1 km² resolution, based on topographic/geomorphic, land cover, soil and rainfall conditions. Our approach also accounts for uncertainties in GHD observations. Independent validations showed generally acceptable simulations of regional GHD patterns. We further show that: (i) model performance strongly depends on the amount of training data used, (ii) large prediction errors mainly occur in areas where also the predicted uncertainty is large and (iii) collecting additional training data for these areas results in more drastic model performance improvements. Analyses of the feature importance of predictor variables further showed that patterns of GHD across the Horn of Africa strongly depend on NDVI and annual rainfall, but also on normalized steepness index (k_sn) and distance to rivers. Overall, our work opens promising perspectives to assess gully densities at continental scales. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interrelations between geostatistics and information theory and their practical use

Well-defined analytical interrelations exist between the geostatistical estimation variance performing an expression of degree of geological exploration and the task-oriented entropy as a concept of information theory. The example of normal distribution shows that this relationship can be expressed in mathematical terms. An extensive practical use could consist in the improvement of exploration optimization on the common basis of continuous geological parameters as is demonstrated by means of an example.     

Algen als Faziesindikatoren: Bioherme und Biostrome im Unter-Kambrium von SW-Sardinien

Archaeocythan limestones of the Lower Cambrian Nebida Fm. (SW-Sardinia) form bioherms (lower Nebida Fm. = Matoppa Mbr.) as well as biostromes (upper Nebida Fm. = Punta Manna Mbr.). In both cases algae are the main rock forming organisms; they act as sediment binding and sediment baffling organisms and thus are responsible for the growth of these carbonates.Both bioherms and biostromes derive from a low energy environment of shallow water depth. While the bioherms developed in an open marine setting, the biostromes belong to a restricted lagoonal area. Apparently, this is the reason for the growth of different algae:Renalcis andEpiphyton in the bioherms,Girvanella in the lagoonal biostromes. Moreover, facies analysis and occurence of archaeocyathans show that these organisms could flourish well above the water depth of 20–50 m mentioned byHill (1972).

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Zusammenfassung Archaeocyathen führende Kalke der unterkambrischen Nebida Fm. (SW-Sardinien) treten sowohl als Bioherme (tiefere Nebida Fm. = Matoppa Mbr.) auf, als auch in Form von Biostromen (höhere Nebida Fm. = Punta Manna Mbr.). Als Hauptgesteinsbildner treten in beiden Fällen Algen auf, die als Sediment bindende und Sediment fangende Organismen für die Entstehung dieser Karonate verantwortlich sind. Sowohl Bioherme wie auch Biostrome entstammen Bereichen geringer Wassertiefe und nur mä\iger Wasserbewegung. Während aber die Bioherme wohl in einem offen-marinen Bereich entstanden sind, lassen sich die Biostrome einem geschützten Lagunenbereich zuordnen. Hierin scheint der Grund für das Auftreten unterschiedlicher Algen zu liegen:Renalcis undEpiphyton in den Biohermen,Girvanella in den lagunären Biostromen. Faziesanalyse und Auftreten von Archaeocyathen legen ferner nahe, da\ diese auch oberhalb der vonHill (1972) als bevorzugt angegebenen Tiefe von 20–50 m recht gut existieren konnten.

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Résumé Les calcaires à Archéocyathes de la formation du Nedida au Cambrien inférieur (Sardaigne du Sud-Ouest) forment non seulement des bioherms (formation du Nebida inférieure = membre de Matoppa) mais encore des biostromes (formation du Nebida supérieure = membre de Punta Manna). On considère que les algues sont les organismes responsables de l'édification de ces calcaires, tant comme »cimenteurs« que comme capteurs des sédiments. Non seulement les biostromes, mais encores les-faible profondeur. Tandis que les bioherms se formaient dans un milieu marin ouvert, on peut attribuer les biostromes à un milieu confiné. Ceci semle Être la raison de la présence d'algues différentes:Renalcis etEpiphyton dans les bioherms,Girvanella dans les biostromes lagunaires. L'analyse du facies et la présence des Archéocythes indiquent que ceux-ci peuvent aussi exister au-dessus de la profondeur de 20 à 50 m proposée parHill (1972).

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Aromatic components of coal: relation of distribution pattern to rank

Aromatic distribution patterns have been evaluated for a series of twenty-four German high volatile bituminous B to low volatile bituminous coals of Upper Carboniferous Westphalian C-, B- and A-ages using high performance liquid chromatography and glass capillary gas chromatography. The study concentrates on dicyclic and tricyclic aromatic hydrocarbons most of which have been identified by combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The distribution patterns of the methylhomologs of naphthalene and phenanthrene are strongly controlled by rank. A sudden increase of individual isomer ratios at 0.9% Rm coincides with an abrupt shift of the sporinite fluorescence colour from yellow towards red. A recently developed aromatics-derived maturity parameter, the Methylphenanthrene Index (MPI), correlated well with the vitrinite reflectance data over the whole rank range. Deviations have been attributed to variations of maceral composition or migration phenomena. The influence of artificial thermal alteration (350 and 400dgC) on the aromatic distribution pattern of coal is described.     

Geochemistry of xenolithic eclogites from West Africa, part 2: origins of the high MgO eclogites

Oxygen isotope, mineral trace element, and measured and reconstructed whole-rock compositions are reported for the high MgO eclogite xenolith suite (16 to 20 wt% MgO in the whole rock) from the Koidu Kimberlite complex, Sierra Leone. In contrast to the previously published data for low MgO eclogites (6 to 13 wt% MgO) from this area, high MgO eclogites equilibrated at higher temperatures (1080 to 1130°C vs. 890 to 930°C) have only mantlelike δ¹⁸O and show variable degrees of light rare earth element (REE) enrichment. Analyses of multiple mineral generations suggest that the heterogeneous REE patterns of the high MgO eclogites reflect variable degrees of metasomatic overprinting. High MgO and Al₂O₃ contents of the eclogites suggest a cumulate origin, either as high-pressure (2 to 3 GPa) garnet-pyroxene cumulates or low-pressure (<1 GPa) plagioclase-pyroxene-olivine cumulates. Trace element modeling suggests a low-P origin for eclogites with flat heavy REE patterns and a high-P origin for eclogites with fractionated heavy REE. Flat heavy REE patterns, the presence of Sr anomalies, and low to moderate transition element contents in the low-P group are consistent with a low-pressure origin as metamorphosed olivine gabbros and troctolites. These metagabbroic high MgO eclogites either could represent the basal section of subducted oceanic crust or foundered mafic lower continental crust. In the former case, the metagabbroic high MgO eclogites may be genetically related to the Koidu low MgO suite. Crystal fractionation trends suggest that the metapyroxenitic high MgO eclogites formed at lower pressures than their current estimated equilibrium pressures (>4 GPa).     

The influence of bottom topography on internal seiches in stratified media

Standing internal waves, so-called seiches, are ubiquitous in reservoirs and lakes. Although the stratification in such basin is often continuous, the modeling of seiches has been confined mostly to two-layer models. Such models are unable to give reliable insights into the vertical structure of the seiches, which might be crucial for the understanding of vertical mixing in natural water basins. To obtain this kind of information a two-dimensional computer model has been developed, which takes both continuous stratification and bottom topography into account. The results of this model are presented. The computed seiche modes reveal that (1) several large-scale modes can exist with similar eigenfrequencies, (2) the modes have a tendency to develop narrow jets and (3) only the lowest modes are strongly influenced by the bottom topography.     

Grid point surface air temperature calculations with a fast turnaround: Combining the results of IMAGE and a GCM

This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.The work reported by the authors was carried out during their stay at the project Forestry and Climate Change of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.