Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Coseismic and post-seismic signatures of the Sumatra 2004 December and 2005 March earthquakes in GRACE satellite gravity

The GRACE satellite mission has been measuring the Earth's gravity field and its temporal variations since 2002 April. Although these variations are mainly due to mass transfer within the geofluid envelops, they also result from mass displacements associated with phenomena including glacial isostatic adjustment and earthquakes. However, these last contributions are difficult to isolate because of the presence of noise and of geofluid signals, and because of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution (>400 km half-wavelength). In this paper, we show that a wavelet analysis on the sphere helps to retrieve earthquake signatures from GRACE geoid products. Using a wavelet analysis of GRACE geoids products, we show that the geoid variations caused by the 2004 December ( M _w= 9.2) and 2005 March ( M _w= 8.7) Sumatra earthquakes can be detected. At GRACE resolution, the 2004 December earthquake produced a strong coseismic decrease of the gravity field in the Andaman Sea, followed by relaxation in the area affected by both the Andaman 2004 and the Nias 2005 earthquakes. We find two characteristic timescales for the relaxation, with a fast variation occurring in the vicinity of the Central Andaman ridge. We discuss our coseismic observations in terms of density changes of crustal and upper-mantle rocks, and of the vertical displacements in the Andaman Sea. We interpret the post-seismic signal in terms of the viscoelastic response of the Earth's mantle. The transient component of the relaxation may indicate the presence of hot, viscous material beneath the active Central Andaman Basin.     

Comment on “Is there a paleolimnological explanation for ‘walking on water’ in the Sea of Galilee?”

In a recent paper, Nof et al. (J Paleolimnol 35:417–439, 2006) suggest a physical mechanism which could account for the formation of ice on Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) in northern Israel. Based on the sea surface temperature record of sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea the authors argue that centennial-scale cold events had the potential to trigger local ‘springs ice’ formation on the lake in the past. Here, we demonstrate that a closer inspection of the paleoceanographic record in combination with correlation and regression analyses of meteorological data provides no evidence for such cold events in the lake region during the last 10,000 years. Thus, the formation of ‘springs ice’ on Lake Kinneret was unlikely at least since the beginning of the Neolithic.     

The world''s large lake basins as denudation-accumulation systems and implications for their lifetimes

The mechanical denudation rates of 81 large lake basins (lake area > 500 km²) were determined from long-term river loads and erosion maps. Using the drainage area/lake area ratios the mean sedimentation rates of the lakes were calculated for a porosity of 0.3. The mean sedimentation rates of different lake types vary between 0.1 mm/a (glacial lakes, lowland) and 5.4 mm/a (mostly sag basin lakes). The calculated lifetimes of the lakes are based on the lake volumes and mean sedimentation rates, assuming steady-state conditions and solely clastic material. On average, glacial lakes in highlands and fault-related lakes show the shortest lifetimes (c. 70 ka), glacial lakes in lowlands and rift lakes have the longest lifetimes (c. 1 Ma). Some lakes remain unfilled for very long time spans due to rapid subsidence of their basin floors. The calculated lifetimes are compared with those derived from sediment core studies. Most core studies indicate lower mechanical sedimentation rates than the calculated ones because a major part of the incoming sediment is trapped in deltas. However, a number of lakes (e.g., the Great Lakes of North America) show the opposite tendency which is largely caused by extensive shoreline erosion and resuspension. The lifetimes of large glacial lakes often exceed the duration of interglacials. Hence, their lifetimes are restricted by glaciation and not by sediment infill. Rift lakes persist for long time periods which exceed the calculated lifetimes in some cases. Time-dependent subsidence, basin extension, as well as the impact of climate change are briefly described.     

Über interne Wellen in der Nähe der Trägheitsperiode

Zusammenfassung Für winderzeugte interne Wellen wird gezeigt, daß bei der Trägheitsperiode in erster Näherung Resonanz eintritt, die in zweiter Näherung in zwei symmetrisch zur Trägheitsperiode liegende Resonanzen zerfällt. Der Effekt wächst mit zunehmender Schichtung und ist außerdem abhängig vom virtuellen Austauschkoeffizienten und der WellenlängeL der internen Wellen. Die Näherung erfolgt in Termen des Verhältnissesd ² H ² (d=Dicke der winderzeugten Grenzschicht,H=Wassertiefe).

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On internal waves near the inertia period

Summary Wind-generated internal waves are shown to have a resonance at the inertia period to first order of an analytical approximation which, to second order, splits into two resonances lying symmetrically to the inertia period. The effect is large for strong stratification and depends also on the Austausch coefficient and the wave lengthL of the internal waves. The approximation is done in terms ofd ² H ² whered=thickness of the wind-generated boundary layer andH=water depth.

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Sur les ondes internes près de la période d'inertie

Résumé On montre que pour les ondes internes dues au vent, il se produit en première approximation, à la période d'inertie, une résonance qui, en deuxième approximation, se décompose en deux résonances symétriques par rapport à la période d'inertie. L'effet augmente avec une stratification croissante et dépend en outre du coefficient de turbulence virtuel et de la longueur d'ondeL des ondes internes. L'approximation s'obtient en termes du rapportd ² H ² (d=épaisseur de la couche-limite due au vent,H=profondeur de l'eau).

     

Extraktion und Verteilung der Aminosäuren in einigen kretazischen Kernproben

Zusammenfassung In 45 Sedimentproben wurde die Verteilung von 16 Aminosäuren quantitativ bestimmt. Durch aufeinanderfolgende Hydrolysen des gleichen Gesteins mit verschiedenen Säuren ließen sich zwei Arten von Aminosäurenverbindungen ermitteln. Aus den Verhältniswerten dieser löslichen, bereits mit 6-N-Salzsäure freisetzbaren Aminosäuren und der kerogengebundenen mit 12 N HCl zugänglichen Komponente lassen sich über die thermische Beanspruchung und den Reifungszustand eines Sedimentes Schlüsse ziehen. Diese stimmen mit den Ergebnissen der durchgeführten Thermalversuche überein und erklären sich durch eine Änderung der Bindungsform der Aminosäuren am Kerogen. Durch zunehmende thermische Beanspruchung erhöht sich der kerogengebundene Aminosäurenanteil, während das Verhältnis zwischen neutralen und nicht neutralen Aminosäuren abnimmt.

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The distribution of 16 aminoacids in 45 sedimentsamples has been determined. Two separate groups of aminoacids could be isolated by successive treatment of the same rock with different acids i. e. rather loosely bound aminoacids isolated by 6 N HCl hydrolysis and aminoacids incorporated in the kerogen, which could be recovered only upon 12 N HCl treatment. From the ratio of these groups conclusions may be drawn with respect to the thermal history and maturity of a sediment. The conclusions have been verified by thermal experiments and may be explained by a modification of the way of compound of the aminoacids with the kerogen. With increasing thermal influence the strongly combined aminoacid fraction becomes relatively predominant. At the same time the ratio of neutral and other aminoacids in these fractions decreases.

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Résumé Le rendement de l'extraction des amino-acides présents dans la roche est fonction de la solubilité de la roche, donc de la pétrographie des échantillons. C'est pourquoi on déminéralise la roche d'abord à l'aide d'acide chlorhydrique, puis d'acide fluorhydrique; on élimine ensuite les constituants bitumineux à l'aide d'acide formique. Le kérogène ainsi isolé fait l'objet de l'hydrolyse proprement dite, laquelle est entreprise par traitements successifs à l'HCl 6 N et à l'HCl 12 N. Ce double traitement a pour effet de séparer des fractions faiblement et fortement combinées.La fraction obtenue par hydrolyse à l'HCl 6 N représente les amino-acides liés au kérogène par adsorption superficielle; la fraction 12 N HCl contient les amino-acides qui étaient intimement incorporés dans le kérogène, en faisant partie de la structure. Cette dernière fraction devient relativement de plus en plus importante avec l'âge et la maturation croissantes; par traitement thermique d'échantillons récents, traitement simulant le vieillissement et la maturation, on constate la même chose. La part des amino-acides neutres diminue, avec la température et la profondeur croissantes, dans la fraction 12 N; elle augmente dans la fraction 6 N.Des échantillons mésozoiques provenant d'un forage profond d'Aquitaine ont été analysés. Les concentrations totales en amino-acides sont en corrélation avec les concentrations en fossiles. D'autre part, dans le partie inférieure du forage (donc la partie dont on peut penser qu'elle est la plus évoluée), on voit le rapport amino-acides neutres/amino-acides totaux diminuer avec la profondeur. Il est à noter que des changements nets dans ce rapport coïncident avec des limites stratigraphiques.

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. 45 , 16 . : 1) 6 HCI II) 12 HCI. .

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Herrn Professor Dr.Roland Brinkmann zum 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.

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Der Direktion derSocièté Nationale Des Pétroles D'Aquitaine, Pau, danke ich für die Ermöglichung dieser Arbeiten und die Genehmigung ihrer Veröffentlichung, den Herren Doktoren G.Kulbicki und B.van der Weide für die vielseitigen Anregungen und Diskussionen. Herrn Prof. Dr. E. T.Degens bin ich für die Durchsicht des Manuskriptes sehr dankbar.