Weighting of Observed Heads for the Inverse Problem

In using least-squares parameter estimation techniques to solve for hydrogeologic parameters, one may use a weighting function to reflect differing reliabilities of head measurements. In studies published to date, the weighting function has been used in an ad boc manner or not at all. The inverse square of the observed hydraulic gradient, adjusted to reflect the modeler's perception of geologic heterogeneity and data reliability, is typically an appropriate weighting function.     

The antiferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition in αFe2O3 in the single prism approximation of the cluster variation method

The single prism approximation SPA of the cluster variation method has been used to model the antiferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition in hematite. This calculation yields insight into the accuracy of the SPA and other approximate methods for modeling order-disorder phenomena. Published values of the magnetic coupling constants were used to calculate the Néel temperature, sublattice magnetization, and magnetic specific heat. The calculated Néel temperature is found to be 1.21 times the observed value, as compared to 1.36 times observed for a mean field theory approximation, an improvement that reflects the superior treatment of configurational entropy in the SPA. Qualitative to semiquantitative agreement is obtained between observed and calculated values for sublattice magnetization and magnetic specific heat; however we find that previously published values for the magnetic specific heat are too large by a factor of two.     

Fouling community of the Loxahatchee River estuary,Florida, 1980–81

Monthly growth of the fouling community at eight test panel sites in the Loxahatchee River Estuary was related to salinity and temperature. Growth was lowest in January 1981 (averaging 23 g per m², dry weight), and increased during spring and early summer with increasing water temperature. Maximum growth occurred during early or midsummer at upstream locations, before river or canal discharge substantially reduced salinity, and in late summer at downstream locations. Growth was greatest at salinities slightly less than that of seawater and decreased at salinities less than about 10‰. Growth was suppressed throughout the estuary in August 1981, probably because of the sudden decrease in temperature and salinity, and perhaps the increase in physical scouring, caused by runoff from Tropical Storm Dennis. Large loads of nutrients transported to the estuary from storm runoff, however, may have subsequently stimulated growth, which increased in September 1981 to the maximum for the year (averaging 683 g per m², dry weight).     

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

Coseismic and post-seismic signatures of the Sumatra 2004 December and 2005 March earthquakes in GRACE satellite gravity

The GRACE satellite mission has been measuring the Earth's gravity field and its temporal variations since 2002 April. Although these variations are mainly due to mass transfer within the geofluid envelops, they also result from mass displacements associated with phenomena including glacial isostatic adjustment and earthquakes. However, these last contributions are difficult to isolate because of the presence of noise and of geofluid signals, and because of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution (>400 km half-wavelength). In this paper, we show that a wavelet analysis on the sphere helps to retrieve earthquake signatures from GRACE geoid products. Using a wavelet analysis of GRACE geoids products, we show that the geoid variations caused by the 2004 December ( M _w= 9.2) and 2005 March ( M _w= 8.7) Sumatra earthquakes can be detected. At GRACE resolution, the 2004 December earthquake produced a strong coseismic decrease of the gravity field in the Andaman Sea, followed by relaxation in the area affected by both the Andaman 2004 and the Nias 2005 earthquakes. We find two characteristic timescales for the relaxation, with a fast variation occurring in the vicinity of the Central Andaman ridge. We discuss our coseismic observations in terms of density changes of crustal and upper-mantle rocks, and of the vertical displacements in the Andaman Sea. We interpret the post-seismic signal in terms of the viscoelastic response of the Earth's mantle. The transient component of the relaxation may indicate the presence of hot, viscous material beneath the active Central Andaman Basin.     

Effect of rod friction on vane shear tests in very soft organic harbour mud

Very soft organic harbour mud is increasingly used as a filling and construction material in harbour construction and reorganization. The undrained shear strength of such soft sediments is the critical geotechnical soil parameter with regard to any specific construction design. Field and laboratory vane shear testing is a standard method to quickly determine this important parameter. So far, the effect of rod friction on vane shear tests in very soft organic soils is unclear. In this study we present results from laboratory experiments on harbour mud from a construction site in northern Germany. Relations among vane and rod geometry, penetration depth, water content, rod friction and undrained shear strength are derived. Based on these relations the influence of rod friction on vane shear test results is investigated. The results indicate that field and laboratory vane shear test measurements may be significantly influenced by rod friction. Methods are proposed to correct for the rod influence, which is shown to increase with rising water contents.