Simulation of the annual and diurnal cycles of rainfall over South Africa by a regional climate model

The capability of a current state-of-the-art regional climate model for simulating the diurnal and annual cycles of rainfall over a complex subtropical region is documented here. Hourly rainfall is simulated over Southern Africa for 1998–2006 by the non-hydrostatic model weather research and forecasting (WRF), and compared to a network of 103 stations covering South Africa. We used five simulations, four of which consist of different parameterizations for atmospheric convection at a 0.5 × 0.5° resolution, performed to test the physic-dependency of the results. The fifth experiment uses explicit convection over tropical South Africa at a 1/30° resolution. WRF simulates realistic mean rainfall fields, albeit wet biases over tropical Africa. The model mean biases are strongly modulated by the convective scheme used for the simulations. The annual cycle of rainfall is well simulated over South Africa, mostly influenced by tropical summer rainfall except in the Western Cape region experiencing winter rainfall. The diurnal cycle shows a timing bias, with atmospheric convection occurring too early in the afternoon, and causing too abundant rainfall. This result, particularly true in summer over the northeastern part of the country, is weakly physic-dependent. Cloud-resolving simulations do not clearly reduce the diurnal cycle biases. In the end, the rainfall overestimations appear to be mostly imputable to the afternoon hours of the austral summer rainy season, i.e., the periods during which convective activity is intense over the region.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

The Water Framework Directive: Can more information be extracted from groundwater data? A case study of Seewinkel,Burgenland, eastern Austria

Water protection is one of the most important goals in environmental protection. The Clean Water Act in the USA and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Europe are the legal frameworks to facilitate the achievement of this goal. The question is raised of whether more information can be extracted from WFD-related groundwater data. To answer it, a methodology has been developed that is easy to use and could be implemented into official practice. A case study is presented in which the groundwater data of a sodic area in Austria (Seewinkel) is assessed. Eighteen parameters in groundwater sampled from 23 wells (1991–2011) were analyzed. With basic statistics, trend-, cluster-, Wilks’ λ and spatial sampling density analysis, local phosphorus and boron phenomena were described, along with the determining role of sulphate, groundwater flow, and the oxygen gradient in the area. As a final step, the spatial sampling density was determined. Regarding the current set of parameters, all the sampling sites are necessary and only in the case of certain parameters (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, NO₃ ^?, pH) could one sampling site be abandoned. The methodology applied brings a new perspective to exploring groundwater data collected according to the requirements of the WFD.     

Calcium,Na, K and Mg Concentrations in Seawater by Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Atomic Emission Spectrometry: Applications to IAPSO Seawater Reference Material,Hydrothermal Fluids and Synthetic Seawater Solutions

We report a measurement procedure to determine simultaneously the major cation concentrations (Na, Ca, K and Mg) of seawater‐derived solutions by inductively coupled plasma‐atomic emission spectrometry. The best results were obtained when the IAPSO (‘standard’) seawater reference material was diluted by thirty times with Milli‐Q^® water. We obtained an average reference value r_K (the ratio of the mass fraction of potassium to that of chlorine, i.e., (g kg^?1)/(g kg^?1)) for IAPSO seawater of 0.0205 ± 0.0006 (2.9% RSD), not significantly different from 0.0206 ± 0.0005 (2.4% RSD) for seawater composition reported in the literature. The measured Na, Ca and Mg concentrations correspond to r_Na, r_Ca and r_Mg values of 0.5406 ± 0.0026 (0.5% RSD), 0.02192 ± 0.00048 (2.2% RSD) and 0.06830 ± 0.00047 (0.7% RSD), respectively, in line with previous values measured by wet‐chemistry and atomic absorption spectrophotometry or wet‐chemical titration. Our measurement procedure was used successfully on synthetic seawater solutions and high‐temperature hydrothermal fluids.     

Overstepping the garnet isograd: a comparison of QuiG barometry and thermodynamic modeling

The consequences of overstepping the garnet isograd reaction have been investigated by comparing the composition of garnet formed at overstepped P–T conditions (the overstep or “OS” model) with the P–T conditions that would be inferred by assuming garnet nucleated in equilibrium with the matrix assemblage at the isograd (the equilibrium or “EQ” model). The garnet nucleus composition formed at overstepped conditions is calculated as the composition that produces the maximum decrease in Gibbs free energy from the equilibrated, garnet-absent, matrix assemblage for the bulk composition under study. Isopleths were then calculated for this garnet nucleus composition assuming equilibrium with the matrix assemblage (the EQ model). Comparison of the actual P–T conditions of nucleation (the OS model) with those inferred from the EQ model reveals considerable discrepancy between the two. In general, the inferred garnet nucleation P–T conditions (the EQ model) are at a lower temperature and higher or lower pressure (depending on the coexisting calcic phase(s)) than the actual (OS model) nucleation conditions. Moreover, the degree of discrepancy increases with the degree of overstepping. Independent estimates of the pressure of nucleation of garnet were made using the Raman shift of quartz inclusions in garnet (quartz-in-garnet or QuiG barometry). To test the validity of this method, an experimental synthesis of garnet containing quartz inclusions was made at 800 °C, 20 kbar, and the measured Raman shift reproduced the synthesis conditions to within 120 bars. Raman band shifts from three natural samples were then used to calculate an isochore along which garnet was presumed to have nucleated. Model calculations were made at several temperatures along this isochore (the OS model), and these P–T conditions were compared to those computed assuming equilibrium nucleation (the EQ model) to estimate the degree of overstepping displayed by these samples. A sample from the garnet isograd in eastern Vermont is consistent with overstepping of around 10 degrees and 0.6 kbar (affinities of around 2 kJ/mole garnet). A sample from the staurolite–kyanite zone in the same terrane requires overstepping of around 50 °C and 2–5 kbar (affinities of around 10–18 kJ/mole garnet). A similar amount of overstepping was inferred for a blueschist sample from Sifnos, Greece. These results indicate that overstepping of garnet nucleation reactions may be common and pronounced in regionally metamorphosed terranes, and that the P–T conditions and paths inferred from garnet zoning studies may be egregiously in error.     

Thermal and rheological controls on the formation of mafic enclaves or banded pumice

Magma mixing can occur in a fluid manner to produce banded pumice or in a brittle manner to form enclaves. We propose that the critical control on mixing style is a competition between developing networks of crystals in the intruding magma that impart a strength to the magma and melting and disrupting those networks in the host. X-ray computed tomography analysis demonstrates that banded pumice from the 1915 Mt. Lassen eruption lacks crystal networks. In contrast, rhyodacite hosts with mafic enclaves from Chaos Crags contain well-developed networks of large crystals. We present a one-dimensional conductive cooling model that predicts mixing style, either ductile or brittle, as a function of magma compositions, temperatures, and the size of the intruding dike. Our model relies on three assumptions: (1) Mixing is initiated by the injection of a hot dike into a cooler magma body with a yield strength; (2) when magma crystallinity exceeds a critical value, 13 vol% plagioclase, the magma develops a yield strength; and (3) when total crystallinity exceeds 40 vol%, the magma has a penetrative crystal network and is effectively solid. Importantly, because the two magmas are of different compositions, their crystallinities and viscosities do not have the same variations with temperature. As the intruding magma cools, it crystallizes from the outside in, while simultaneously, host magma temperature near the intruder rises. Mixing of the two magmas begins when the host magma is heated sufficiently to (1) disrupt the crystal network and (2) initiate convection. If the shear stress exerted by the convecting host magma on the dike is greater than the yield strength of the dike margin (and dike crystallinity does not exceed 40 %), then fluid mixing occurs, otherwise enclaves form by brittle deformation of the dike. Application of the model to magma compositions representative of Lassen and Chaos Crags shows that emplacement of dikes <1 m thick should produce enclaves, whereas thicker dikes should generate fluid mixing and form banded pumice within days to weeks of emplacement. Similar relationships apply to other modeled magmatic systems, including Pinatubo, Unzen, and Ksudach/Shtuybel’ volcanoes. For all studied systems, the absolute size of the intruding dike, not just its proportion relative to the host, influences mixing style.     

Thermochronological evidence for Mio‐Pliocene late orogenic extension in the north‐eastern Albanides (Albania)

New apatite and zircon (U–Th)/He and apatite fission‐track (FT) data allow constraining the timing of Miocene–Pliocene extensional exhumation that affected the central part of the Dinarides‐Albanides‐Hellenides orogen. Apatite (U–Th)/He ages in the northern and western Internal Albanides range from 57 to 17 Ma, contrasting to younger ages of 5.2–9.3 Ma in the eastern Internal Albanides. Eastward younging is also reflected in zircon (U–Th)/He ages varying from 101 Ma in the north‐western Internal Albanides to 19–50 Ma in the east, as well as in recently published apatite FT ages. Thermal history predictions with the new data point to a phase of rapid exhumation of the eastern Internal Albanides around 6–4 Ma, while the western Internal Albanides record slower continuous exhumation since the Eocene. This asymmetric exhumation pattern is most likely linked to extensional reactivation of NE–SW‐trending thrusts east of the Mirdita zone and within the Korabi zone of the eastern Internal Albanides.     

Orbit Determination of Binary Asteroids

In addition to the detection of an asteroid moon or a binary asteroid, the knowledge of the satellite’s true orbit is of high importance to derive fundamental physical parameters of the binary system such as its mass and to shed light on its possible formation history and dynamical evolution (prograde/retrograde orbit, large/small eccentricity or inclination, etc.). A new methodology for preliminary orbit determination of binary asteroids – and visual binaries in general – is proposed. It is based on Thiele–Innes method combined with a ‘trial and error’ Monte-Carlo technique. This method provides the full set of solutions (bundle of orbits, with the 7 orbital elements) even for a reduced number of observations. The mass is a direct by-product of this orbit determination, from which one can next infer the bulk-density and porosity. In addition to the bundle of orbits, the method provides the marginal probability densities of the foreseen parameters. Such error analysis – since it avoids linear approximation – can be of importance for the prediction of the satellite’s position in the plane-of-sky during future stellar occultations or subsequent observations, but also for the analysis of the orbit’s secular evolution. After briefly describing the method, we present the algorithm and its application to some practical cases, with particular emphasis on asteroids binaries and applications on orbital evolution.     

Activity-composition relations in the system CaCO3-MgCO3 predicted from static structure energy calculations and Monte Carlo simulations

Thermodynamic mixing properties and subsolidus phase relations of the rhombohedral carbonate system, (1 − x) · CaCO₃ − x · MgCO₃, were modelled in the temperature range of 623-2023 K with static structure energy calculations based on well-parameterised empirical interatomic potentials. Relaxed static structure energies of a large set of randomly varied structures in a 4 × 4 × 1 supercell of calcite (a = 19.952 Å, c = 17.061 Å) were calculated with the General Utility Lattice Program (GULP). These energies were cluster expanded in a basis set of 12 pair-wise effective interactions. Temperature-dependent enthalpies of mixing were calculated by the Monte Carlo method. Free energies of mixing were obtained by thermodynamic integration of the Monte Carlo results. The calculated phase diagram is in good agreement with experimental phase boundaries.