Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Comparison of seismic actions and structural design requirements in Chinese code GB 50011 and international standard ISO 3010

This paper presents a comparison between the Chinese Code GB50011-2001 and the International Standard ISO3010: 2001(E), emphasizing the similarities and differences related to design requirements, seismic actions and analytical approaches. Similarities include: earthquake return period, conceptual design, site classification, structural strength and ductility requirements, deformation limits, response spectra, seismic analysis procedures, isolation and energy dissipation, and nonstructural elements. Differences exist in the following areas: seismic levels, earthquake loading, mode damping factors and structural control.     

Spectra of poorly resolved ocean data

Standard temperature and pressure sensors on Aanderaa RCM8 current meters have a resolution of 0.024 °C and 0.6 bar, each equal to 1 digital number (value) over a range of 1024. It is shown that an 11-month deep-ocean temperature record using only four values can contain useful spectral information on internal wave motions. This is partially due to the modulation of high-frequency data by non-zero low-frequency (subinertial) variations. This result follows from the comparison of this record with artificial three- and four-value data constructed from temperature records observed in stronger stratified waters nearby. These artificial records show main features of the internal wave band similar to those observed in the original data spectra. Peaks at tidal harmonic frequencies and enhancements at sum-tidal-inertial interaction frequencies are preserved in the artificial data, but overall noise level (and thus the continuum spectral slope) is enhanced with respect to the properly resolved records (using 15 and 100 values). As a demonstration of the stable accuracy of the temperature sensors, the poorly resolved records provided an estimate of mean stratification to within 5% of the estimate using Seabird CTD data.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Building and Testing an <Emphasis Type="Italic">a priori</Emphasis> Geophysical Model for Western Eurasia and North Africa

We construct and evaluate a new three-dimensional model of crust and upper mantle structure in Western Eurasia and North Africa (WENA) extending to 700 km depth and having 1° parameterization. The model is compiled in an a priori fashion entirely from existing geophysical literature, specifically, combining two regionalized crustal models with a high-resolution global sediment model and a global upper mantle model. The resulting WENA1.0 model consists of 24 layers: water, three sediment layers, upper, middle, and lower crust, uppermost mantle, and 16 additional upper mantle layers. Each of the layers is specified by its depth, compressional and shear velocity, density, and attenuation (quality factors, Q _P and Q _S ). The model is tested by comparing the model predictions with geophysical observations including: crustal thickness, surface wave group and phase velocities, upper mantle _n velocities, receiver functions, P-wave travel times, waveform characteristics, regional 1-D velocities, and Bouguer gravity. We find generally good agreement between WENA1.0 model predictions and empirical observations for a wide variety of independent data sets. We believe this model is representative of our current knowledge of crust and upper mantle structure in the WENA region and can successfully be used to model the propagation characteristics of regional seismic waveform data. The WENA1.0 model will continue to evolve as new data are incorporated into future validations and any new deficiencies in the model are identified. Eventually this a priori model will serve as the initial starting model for a multiple data set tomographic inversion for structure of the Eurasian continent.     

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes,Kona, Hawai‘i

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huallai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawaii (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in a.d. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawaii, eruptions of neighboring Klauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Klauea.The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huallai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding.Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of peoples knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work.The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there.     

Reproduction of secondary data in projection pursuit transformation

A challenge when working with multivariate data in a geostatistical context is that the data are rarely Gaussian. Multivariate distributions may include nonlinear features, clustering, long tails, functional boundaries, spikes, and heteroskedasticity. Multivariate transformations account for such features so that they are reproduced in geostatistical models. Projection pursuit as developed for high dimensional data exploration can also be used to transform a multivariate distribution into a multivariate Gaussian distribution with an identity covariance matrix. Its application within a geostatistical modeling context is called the projection pursuit multivariate transform (PPMT). An approach to incorporate exhaustive secondary variables in the PPMT is introduced. With this approach the PPMT can incorporate any number of secondary variables with any number of primary variables. A necessary alteration to the approach to make this numerically practical was the implementation of a continuous probability estimator that relies on Bernstein polynomials for the transformation that takes place in the projections. Stopping criteria were updated to incorporate a bootstrap t test that compares data sampled from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with the data undergoing transformation.     

Fast and direct nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test

Regional frequency analysis is an important tool to properly estimate hydrological characteristics at ungauged or partially gauged sites in order to prevent hydrological disasters. The delineation of homogeneous groups of sites is an important first step in order to transfer information and obtain accurate quantile estimates at the target site. The Hosking–Wallis homogeneity test is usually used to test the homogeneity of the selected sites. Despite its usefulness and good power, it presents some drawbacks including the subjective choice of a parametric distribution for the data and a poorly justified rejection threshold. The present paper addresses these drawbacks by integrating nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test. To assess the rejection threshold, three resampling methods (permutation, bootstrap and Pólya resampling) are considered. Results indicate that permutation and bootstrap methods perform better than the parametric Hosking–Wallis test in terms of power as well as in time and procedure simplicity. A real-world case study shows that the nonparametric tests agree with the HW test concerning the homogeneity of the volume and the bivariate case while they disagree for the peak case, but that the assumptions of the HW test are not well respected.