Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk‐based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network–reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non‐linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and ‘failure’ domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleostress-tensor analysis of late deformation events in the Odenwald Crystalline Complex and comparison with other units of the Mid-German Crystalline Rise, Germany

Summary Geometric data of fault planes and fault plane lineations, together with the observed sense of shear on the slip planes, were used to calculate paleostress tensors and fields responsible for the post metamorphic peak D3 and D4 deformation events in the four Odenwald units sensu Krohe (1991). The paleostress fields were calculated using the method of Will and Powell (1991). As inferred from the paleostress analysis, the D3 strike-slip deformation west of the Otzberg fault zone was caused by a, ± N-S directed, compressional regional stress field, with shallowly plunging σ₁ axes and σ₃ directions that plunge at shallow to moderate angles to the E or W; the calculated mean orientations are: σ₁ 06 → 350, σ₂ 77 → 234 and σ₃ 12 → 085. The B?llsteiner Odenwald east of the Otzberg fault zone was not affected by this stress field. This implies that the Bergstr?sser and B?llsteiner Odenwald were spatially separated and formed independent crustal blocks during D3. The D4 faulting event is recognised in all areas investigated, even though most prominently in units III and IV, and juxtaposed the Bergstr?sser and B?llsteiner Odenwald. This faulting episode was caused by a paleostress field with a steeply westerly plunging σ₁ axis and a shallowly southsoutheasterly plunging σ₃ axis. The orientations of the principal stresses are: σ₁ 52 → 270, σ₂ 38 → 085 and σ₃ 06 → 174. With continued deformation from D3 to D4, there was a progressive change in the orientation of the stress field indicating a change from a N-S compressional to extensional stress field, accompanied by the progressive development of strike-slip faults and late normal faults. Paleostress field orientations in the Pfalz Forest, SW of the Odenwald, determined by Fl?ttmann and Oncken (1992) are very similar to those obtained for the Odenwald region and indicate a regionally consistent stress pattern in the southwestern part of the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (MGCR) during strike-slip and normal faulting deformations.

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Zusammenfassung Paleostress-Tensor Analyse sp?ter Deformationsereignisse im Odenwald-Kristallin und ein Vergleich mit anderen Einheiten der Mitteldeutschen Kristallinzone, Deutschland Für die vier Odenwald-Einheiten im Sinne von Krohe (1991) wurden Pal?ostressfelder für die Blattverschiebungs- und Abschiebungsereignisse D3 und D4 mit der Methode von Will und Powell (1991) berechnet. Die Analyse ergibt, da? das regionale Spannungsfeld, das westlich der Otzberg-Zone im Bergstr?sser Odenwald zum D3-Ereignis führte, ein ± N-S gerichtetes kompressives Stresssfeld war. Die σ₁-Achse f?llt flach nach N bzw. S ein, die σ₃-Achse mit kleinen bis moderaten Winkeln nach E bzw. W; die berechneten Orientierungen der Hauptspannungsrichtungen sind: σ₁ 08 → 350, σ₂ 77 → 234 and σ₃ 12 → 085. Der B?llsteiner Odenwald, ?stlich der Otzberg-Zone, wurde von diesem Spannungsfeld nicht erfa?t. Dies impliziert, da? Bergstr?sser und B?llsteiner Odenwald w?hrend des D3-Ereignisses voneinander getrennt waren und separate Krusteneinheiten darstellten. Auswirkungen der D4-Deformation k?nnen im gesamten Untersuchungsgebiet erkannt werden, am st?rksten jedoch in den Einheiten III und IV. Dieses Ereignis wurde von einem Pal?ostressfeld mit einer steil nach W einfallenden σ₁- und einer flach nach SSE einfallenden σ₃-Achse verursacht und führte zum Zusammenschlu? von Bergstr?sser und B?llsteiner Odenwald. Die berechneten Orientierungen der Hauptspannungsrichtungen sind: σ₁ 52 → 270, σ₂ 38 → 085 und σ₃ 06 → 174. Die Rotation der Hauptspannungsrichtungen war mit einer ?nderung von einem kompressionalen N-S gerichteten (D3) hin zu einem extensionalen (D4) Stressfeld verbunden. Die erzielten Ergebnisse sind sehr ?hnlich mit Resultaten, die Fl?ttmann und Oncken (1992) im Pf?lzer Wald ermittelten. Dies weist auf ein regional übereinstimmendes Spannungsfeld im SW-Teil der Mitteldeutschen Kristallinzone hin.

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Received July 8, 1999; revised version accepted March 28, 2000     

Cyclic distribution of energetic X-ray flares

The Blackman-Tukey power spectrum of flare generated X-ray bursts X1 observed from 1970 to 1982 by satellite instrumentation (SOLRAD/SMS/GOES) shows prominent peaks at 156, 4.8, 2.8, and 1.1 months. According to a statistical test of the significance of the deviation of these peaks from Markov red noise, the peaks at 2.8 and 1.1 months are significant at the 99% confidence level while the peak at 4.8 months reaches the 95% level. A replication by means of the maximum entropy spectral analysis (MEM) yields the same prominent peaks at the same frequencies.     

On the existence of cosmological evolutionary effects

Parameters of the distant galaxy clusters of 3C295 (z=0.46) and Cl 0024+1654 (z=0.39) are compared with the predictions made using galaxies of the local clusters Coma (z=0.023) and DC 0329–52 (z=0.057) taking theK-effect into account. The distributions of colour and morphological type, and the amplitudesF ⁺/F^– of the ₀ 4000 discontinuity are examined and no evidence for evolution of the galaxies and the clusters can be seen.     

Response of earth and venus ionospheres to corotating solar wind stream of 3 July 1979

Corotating solar wind streams emanating from stable coronal structures provide an unique opportunity to compare the response of planetary ionospheres to the energy conveyed in the streams. For recurrent solar conditions the signal propagating outward along spiral paths in interplanetary space can at times exhibit rather similar content at quite different downstream locations in the ecliptic plane. Using solar wind measurements from plasma detectors on ISEE-3, Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) and Helios-A, as well as in-situ ion composition measurements from Bennett Ion Mass Spectrometers on the Atmosphere Explorer-E and PVO spacecraft, corotating stream interactions are examined at Earth and Venus. During May–July 1979 a sequence of distinct, recurrent coronal regions developed at the Sun. Analysis of these regions and the associated solar wind characteristics indicates a corrresponding sequence of corotating streams, identifiable over wide distances. The time series of solar wind velocity variations observed at Earth, Venus, and the Helios-A positions during June–July attests to intervals of corotating stream propagation. The characteristics of the stream which passed Earth on July 3, are observed at Helios-A and at Venus (PVO) about 8 days later, consistent with the spiral path propagation delay times between the locations in the ecliptic plane. On July 3, Earth and Venus have a wide azimuthal separation of about 142 . Although the planetary environments are distinctly different, pronounced and somewhat analagous ionospheric responses to the stream passage are observed at both Earth and Venus. The response to the intercepted stream is consistent with independent investigations which have shown that the variability of the solar wind momentum flux is an important factor in the solar wind-ionosphere interaction at both planets.     

X-Ray and microwave observations of active regions

Radio and X-ray observations are presented for three flares which show significant activity for several minutes prior to the main impulsive increase in the hard X-ray flux. The activity in this ‘pre-flash’ phase is investigated using 3.5 to 461 keV X-ray data from the Solar Maximum Mission, 100 to 1000 MHz radio data from Zürich, and 169 MHz radio-heliograph data from Nançay. The major results of this study are as follows:

1. Decimetric pulsations, interpreted as plasma emission at densities of 10⁹–10¹⁰ cm^?3, and soft X-rays are observed before any Hα or hard X-ray increase.
2. Some of the metric type III radio bursts appear close in time to hard X-ray peaks but delayed between 0.5 and 1.5 s, with the shorter delays for the bursts with the higher starting frequencies.
3. The starting frequencies of these type III bursts appear to correlate with the electron temperatures derived from isothermal fits to the hard X-ray spectra. Such a correlation is expected if the particles are released at a constant altitude with an evolving electron distribution. In addition to this effect we find evidence for a downward motion of the acceleration site at the onset of the flash phase.
4. In some cases the earlier type III bursts occurred at a different location, far from the main position during the flash phase.
5. The flash phase is characterized by higher hard X-ray temperatures, more rapid increase in X-ray flux, and higher starting frequency of the coincident type III bursts.

     

The solution of Kepler's equation,I

Methods of iteration are discussed in relation to Kepler's equation, and various initial guesses are considered, with possible strategies for choosing them. Several of these are compared; the method of iteration used in the comparisons has local convergence of the fourth order.WANG Laboratories, Inc.     

The WRF model performance for the simulation of heavy precipitating events over Ahmedabad during August 2006

The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2mm of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall of 108.4mm and 97.7mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for the low precipitation threshold.