Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.     

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

Earliest microbially mediated pyrite oxidation in ~ 3.4 billion-year-old sediments

Pyrite (FeS₂) oxidation in modern sedimentary environments is neither a purely chemical nor purely microbial process, but it is significantly enhanced by the activity of microorganisms that use reduced forms of iron and sulphur in their metabolisms. On the early Earth, where oxygen levels were thought to be < 10^?5 of the present atmospheric level and chemical oxidants scarce, such biological mediation may have been critical in the redox cycles of iron and sulphur. Here, we show that detrital sedimentary pyrite grains in a ~ 3.4 billion-year-old sandstone were colonised by microbial communities. The detrital pyrite comes from the basal quartz arenite member of the 3.43–3.35 Ga Strelley Pool Formation (SPF) in the East Strelley greenstone belt of the Pilbara Craton, Western Australia. Rock chips and petrographic thin sections of black sandstones occurring on two ridges close to the SPF type locality of Strelley Pool were investigated using optical microscopy, SEM, TEM, laser Raman and NanoSIMS. The detrital pyrite grains exhibit laminated carbonaceous coatings of early Archean age, with localised enrichments of nitrogen that are interpreted as the in situ remains of biofilms growing on these nutrient-rich minerals. Pyrite surfaces contain spherical pits, chains of pits and channels that are morphologically distinct from abiotic alteration features. The pits and channels are widespread, have a clustered distribution typical of microbial colonisation, and are closely comparable to biologically mediated microstructures in the younger rock record and those created by extant Fe- and S-oxidising microbes in the laboratory. They are thus interpreted as trace fossils formed by the attachment of bacteria to the pyrite surfaces. A nano-layer and discreet nano-grains of secondary mineral precipitates, namely Fe-oxides belonging to the magnetite-maghaemite group, attest to pyrite oxidation. These are intimately associated with the biofilms and trace fossils, and are interpreted to represent the fossilised mineral products of biologically mediated pyrite oxidation. These data extend the geological range of microbes capable of metabolising reduced Fe and/or S compounds back to the early Archean and indicate that pyrite-rich sedimentary rocks provide promising targets in the search for extraterrestrial life.     

Environmental learning and the social construction of an exurban landscape in Fremont County, Colorado

Across the rural American West, the restructuring of rural capitalism has transformed production landscapes into those increasingly structured by the development and consumption of natural and cultural amenities. This project used principles from symbolic interactionism, ethnographic methods, and the analytical framework of regional political ecology to understand the role of environmental learning in negotiating the new management regime associated with amenity-based capitalism in rural Fremont County, Colorado. The study found that most amenity residents participate regularly in social learning about the environment through a variety of interpersonal and organizational behaviors. In addition, they are responding collectively to environmental risks and opportunities associated with wildfire, noxious weeds and invasive grass species, prospective uranium mining, and restoration of cultural-landscape features. Ultimately, the practices of environmental learning concern how private properties and assets will be managed relative to the social construction of the environment as an amenity for personal consumption. Conservation and management prospects in this and other rural areas in the postindustrial world can be enhanced by understanding the microsociology of exurban geographies and by engaging the social forms and processes related to this distinctive landscape construction.     

Deferred decentralized movement pattern mining for geosensor networks

This article presents an algorithm for decentralized (in-network) data mining of the movement pattern flock among mobile geosensor nodes. The algorithm DDIG (Deferred Decentralized Information Grazing) allows roaming sensor nodes to ‘graze’ over time more information than they could access through their spatially limited perception range alone. The algorithm requires an intrinsic temporal deferral for pattern mining, as sensor nodes must be enabled to collect, memorize, exchange, and integrate their own and their neighbors' most current movement history before reasoning about patterns. A first set of experiments with trajectories of simulated agents showed that the algorithm accuracy increases with growing deferral. A second set of experiments with trajectories of actual tracked livestock reveals some of the shortcomings of the conceptual flocking model underlying DDIG in the context of a smart farming application. Finally, the experiments underline the general conclusion that decentralization in spatial computing can result in imperfect, yet useful knowledge.     

A sample of 6C radio sources designed to find objects at redshift z>4– III. Imaging and the radio galaxy K–z relation

In this paper, the third and final of a series, we present complete K -band imaging and some complementary I -band imaging of the filtered 6C* sample. We find no systematic differences between the K – z relation of 6C* radio galaxies and those from complete samples, so the near-infrared properties of luminous radio galaxies are not obviously biased by the additional 6C* radio selection criteria (steep spectral index and small angular size). The 6C* K – z data significantly improve delineation of the K – z relation for radio galaxies at high redshift ( z >2) . Accounting for non-stellar contamination, and for correlations between radio luminosity and stellar mass, we find little support for previous claims that the underlying scatter in the stellar luminosity of radio galaxies increases significantly at z >2 . In a particular spatially flat universe with a cosmological constant (Ω_M=0.3 and Ω_Λ=0.7) , the most luminous radio sources appear to be associated with galaxies with a luminosity distribution with a high mean (≈5  L *), and a low dispersion ( σ ∼0.5 mag) which formed their stars at epochs corresponding to z ≳2.5 . This result is in line with recent submillimetre studies of high-redshift radio galaxies and the inferred ages of extremely red objects from faint radio samples.     

The 1995–2002 Long-Term Monitoring of Comet C/1995 O1 (HALE–BOPP) at Radio Wavelength

The bright comet Hale–Bopp provided the first opportunity to follow the outgassing rates of a number of molecular species over a large range of heliocentric distances. We present the results of our observing campaign at radio wavelengths which began in August 1995 and ended in January 2002. The observations were carried out with the telescopes of Nançay, IRAM, JCMT, CSO and, since September 1997, SEST. The lines of nine molecules (OH, CO, HCN, CH₃OH, H₂CO, H₂S, CS, CH₃CN and HNC) were monitored. CS, H₂S, H₂CO, CH₃CN were detected up to r_h= 3–4 AU from the Sun, while HCN and CH₃OH were detected up to 6 AU. CO, which is the main driver of cometary activity at heliocentric distances larger than 3–4 AU, was last detected in August 2001, at r_h= 14 AU. The gas production rates obtained from this programme contain important information on the nature of cometary ices, their thermal properties and sublimation mechanisms.Line shapes allow to measure gas expansion velocities, which, at large heliocentric distances, might be directly connected to the temperature of the nucleus surface. Inferred expansion velocity of the gas varied as r_h ^-0.4 within 7 AU from the Sun, but remained close to 0.4 km s^-1 further away. The CO spectra obtained at large r_hare strongly blueshifted and indicative of an important day-to-night asymmetry in outgassing and expansion velocity. The kinetic temperature of the coma, estimated from the relative intensities of the CH₃OH and CO lines, increased with decreasing r_h, from about 10 K at 7 AU to 110 K around perihelion.