The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

Space Operation and Performance of Doped Germanium Photo-Conducting Detectors in the Far Infrared: Experience from the ISO LWS

The performance of the ten doped germaniumphotoconducting detectors on the Infrared SpaceObservatory Long Wavelength Spectrometer is discussed. This instrument was designed to make spectroscopicmeasurements of astronomical sources in the wavelengthrange from 43 to 198 m. It employed^* a combination of stressed and unstressed Ge:Ga detectorsand one Ge:Be detector coupled to Infrared Labs JF-4integrating amplifiers. The performance of thedetectors was affected by the ionising radiation inthe space environment. The Noise Equivalent Power ofthe detectors increased by a factor of 4 compared tothat measured during ground testing. We show thatthis was the result of reducing the operating bias,and therefore the responsivity, of the detectors andusing shorter integration ramps to alleviate theeffects of the ionising radiation impacts. ^ast ISO exhausted its helium supply on 8 April 1998.     

Oil and gas in offshore tracts: Bias in estimates of reserves

Two independent data sets show that current means of estimating reserves of oil and gas in offshore fields are biased. The bias which is established here is that small fields (with less than about 10 million barrels of oil equivalent) are overestimated, and larger fields (at least up to 200 MMBOE) are underestimated. This systematic bias occurs with or without a significant overall bias, and in addition to a large scatter. Because bias (as opposed to scatter) has serious implications for national energy policy, and in particular for conduct of offshore lease sales, these results indicate that evaluation methods should be revised, or that ad hoc adjustments (based on historical data) should be applied.     

Pleistocene geomorphology and geochronology of eastern Grand Canyon: linkages of landscape components during climate changes

We report new mapping, soils, survey, and geochronologic (luminescence, U-series, and cosmogenic-nuclide) data from Pleistocene deposits in the arid setting of eastern Grand Canyon. The result is a stratigraphic framework of inset fill gravels and associated terraces that provide a record of the responses of hillslopes, tributary streams, and the Colorado River to the last 400 kyr of glacial–interglacial climate change. The best-preserved last 80 kyr of this record indicates a stratigraphic–chronologic disconnect between both deposition and incision along the Colorado River versus along the trunks of local tributaries. For example, the Colorado River finished aggrading and had already begun incising before the main pulse of aggradation in the trunks of local catchments during Marine Isotope Stage 3, and then tributary incision followed during the millennial-scale fluctuations of the last glacial epoch, potentially concurrent with mainstem aggradation. The mainstem record appears to broadly correlate with regional paleoclimate and upstream geomorphic records and thus may be responding to climatic–hydrologic changes in its mountain headwaters, with aggradation beginning during full-glacial times and continuing into subsequent interglacials. The contrasting lag time in responses of the dryland catchments within Grand Canyon may be largely a function of the weathering-limited nature of hillslope sediment supply.     

Geomorphology,hydrology, and aquatic vegetation drive seasonal hyporheic flow patterns across a gravel‐dominated floodplain

Across 1·7 km² of the Umatilla River floodplain (Oregon, USA), we investigated the influences of an ephemeral tributary and perennial ‘spring channel’ (fed only by upwelling groundwater) on hyporheic hydrology. We derived maps of winter and summer water‐table elevations from data collected at 46 monitoring wells and 19 stage gauges and used resulting maps to infer groundwater flow direction. Groundwater flow direction varied seasonally across the floodplain and was influenced by main channel stage, flooding, the tributary creek, and the location and direction of hyporheic exchange in the spring channel. Hyporheic exchange in the spring channel was evaluated with a geochemical mixing model, which confirmed patterns of floodplain groundwater movement inferred from water‐table maps and showed that the spring channel was fed predominantly by hyporheic water from the floodplain aquifer (87% during winter, 80% during summer), with its remaining flow supplied by upslope groundwater from the adjacent catchment aquifer. Summertime growth of aquatic macrophytes in the spring channel also influenced patterns of hyporheic exchange and groundwater flow direction in the alluvial aquifer by increasing flow resistance in the spring channel, locally raising surface water stage and adjacent water‐table elevation, and thereby altering the slope of the water‐table in the hyporheic zone. The Umatilla River floodplain is larger than most sites where hyporheic hydrology has been investigated in detail. Yet, our results corroborate other research that has identified off‐channel geomorphic features as important drivers of hyporheic hydrology, including previously published modeling efforts from a similar river and field observations from smaller streams. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.