Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.     

Late Quaternary chironomid community structure shaped by rate and magnitude of climate change

Much is known about how climate change impacts ecosystem richness and turnover, but we have less understanding of its influence on ecosystem structures. Here, we use ecological metrics (beta diversity, compositional disorder and network skewness) to quantify the community structural responses of temperature-sensitive chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 cal a bp ) and Holocene (11 700 cal a bp to present). Analyses demonstrate high turnover (beta diversity) of chironomid composition across both epochs; however, structural metrics stayed relatively intact. Compositional disorder and skewness show greatest structural change in the Younger Dryas, following the rapid, high-magnitude climate change at the Bølling–Allerød to Younger Dryas transition. There were fewer climate-related structural changes across the early to mid–late Holocene, where climate change was more gradual and lower in magnitude. The reduced impact on structural metrics could be due to greater functional resilience provided by the wider chironomid community, or to the replacement of same functional-type taxa in the network structure. These results provide insight into how future rapid climate change may alter chironomid communities and could suggest that while turnover may remain high under a rapidly warming climate, community structural dynamics retain some resilience.     

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.     

浅海和陆相地层的高分辨率层序地层对比——以东犹他州书崖地区白垩系黑鹰组Sunnyside段为例

现代地层学研究中一个关键的问题是陆相和浅海相地层的对比和整和,尽管层序地层学在两种地层中均有很大发展,可是很少有成功的两者对比研究,本文的目的就是用陆地有机相和海相地层水进水退来产生一种新的层序地层演化的整和模式。     

Hyper‐planning Jakarta: The Great Garuda and planning the global spectacle

After a major flood in Jakarta in 2007, the government of Indonesia partnered with a consortium of Dutch engineers and designers to produce a solution. In 2013, this consortium proposed a plan for the Great Garuda, a megaproject that combined a deep seawall and private real estate, both in an archipelago of reclaimed islands that would be shaped like the mythical garuda eagle, Indonesia's national symbol. Despite a range of infeasibilities and opposition, the Great Garuda became the most prominent vision for the city's future. This article argues that the promotion of the Great Garuda was a process of ‘hyper‐planning’, which projected the city as a national triumph and a global spectacle. The plan served the political objective of creating the mere possibility of a ‘new Jakarta’ apart from the perceived chaos of the current capital. Further, the plan functioned as a performative object through its iconic imagery and its circulations. The process of hyper‐planning simultaneously projected a future of urban success, but also displaced the contingencies of the future to the private sector, beyond the purview of the state.     

The Distribution of Chadian and earliest Arundian strata in North Wales: Implications for Dinantian (Carboniferous) lithostratigraphy and palaeogeography

The late Chadian Foel Formation, previously thought to be confined to the Dyserth area of North Wales, forms a poorly exposed but persistent basal unit to much of the Dinantian crop east of the Clwydian Range, necessitating a revision of the local lithostratigraphy. The formation comprises a peritidal heterolith which, together with the lowest few metres of the overlying Llanarmon Limestone, yields microfossil assemblages diagnostic of the Eoparastaffella Cf4α Subzone. Succeeding strata, containing the lowest archaediscid foraminifera, provide the first record of Cf4β assemblages from North Wales and establish an early Arundian age for these beds. The Foel Formation was deposited as an aggradational sequence on the northern flank of St. George's Land during a pulsed transgression which began in late Chadian times. The widely recognized basal Arundian transgression is represented by the contact between the Foel Formation and overlying platform carbonates. The latter overlap the Foel Formation in the southernmost part of the Clwydian crop demonstrating, for the first time, southwards onlap on the northern side of the Bala–Bryneglwys Fault System.     

The spawning and early life-history of a New Zealand endemic amphidromous eleotrid,bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi)

The larval stage of fishes is critical in determining their dispersal, survival and recruitment, but little is known of the larval behaviours and tolerances of amphidromous fishes, particularly in New Zealand. We report the results of a series of observational and experimental studies on bluegill bully (Gobiomorphus hubbsi), including spawning sites and behaviours, larval characteristics at hatch, phototactic responses of larvae, and larval survival at different salinity levels. Spawning primarily occurred in the lower reaches of the river, and larvae from different nests exhibited marked differences in, and trade-offs between, larval characteristics at hatch, potentially affecting larval success. Larvae were positively phototactic to intense light, an unexpected result based on diel drift patterns and international research. Finally, larvae exhibited markedly higher survival rates when reared at intermediate salinities compared to freshwater or seawater, suggesting estuaries may play an important role as nursery grounds for bluegill bully and other amphidromous fish.     

Equatorial Pacific gravity lineaments: interpretations with basement topography along seismic reflection lines

The central equatorial Pacific is interesting for studying clues to upper mantle processes, as the region lacks complicating effects of continental remnants or major volcanic plateaus. In particular, the most recently produced maps of the free-air gravity field from satellite altimetry show in greater detail the previously reported lineaments west of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) that are aligned with plate motion over the mantle and originally suggested to have formed from mantle convection rolls. In contrast, the gravity field 600 km or farther west of the EPR reveals lineaments with varied orientations. Some are also parallel with plate motion over the mantle but others are sub-parallel with fracture zones or have other orientations. This region is covered by pelagic sediments reaching ~?500–600 m thickness so bathymetry is not so useful for seeking evidence for plate deformation across the lineaments. We instead use depth to basement from three seismic reflection cruises. In some segments of these seismic data crossing the lineaments, we find that the co-variation between gravity and basement depth is roughly compatible with typical densities of basement rocks (basalt, gabbro or mantle), as expected for some explanations for the lineaments (e.g., mantle convection rolls, viscous asthenospheric inter-fingering or extensional deformation). However, some other lineaments are associated with major changes in basement depth with only subtle changes in the gravity field, suggesting topography that is locally supported by varied crustal thickness. Overall, the multiple gravity lineament orientations suggest that they have multiple origins. In particular, we propose that a further asthenospheric inter-fingering instability mechanism could occur from pressure variations in the asthenosphere arising from regional topography and such a mechanism may explain some obliquely oriented gravity lineaments that have no other obvious origin.