Quality of reprocessed GPS satellite orbits

High-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite orbits are one of the core products of the International GNSS Service (IGS). Since the establishment of the IGS in 1994, the quality and consistency of the IGS orbits has steadily been improved by advances in the modeling of GPS observations. However, due to these model improvements and reference frame changes, the time series of operational orbits are inhomogeneous and inconsistent. This problem can only be overcome by a complete reprocessing starting with the raw observation data. The quality of reprocessed GPS satellite orbits for the time period 1994–2005 will be assessed in this paper. Orbit fits show that the internal consistency of the orbits could be improved by a factor of about two in the early years. Comparisons with the operational IGS orbits show clear discontinuities whenever the reference frame was changed by the IGS. The independent validation with Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) residuals shows an improvement of up to 30% whereas a systematic bias of 5 cm still persists.     

Fish assemblages in Tanzanian mangrove creek systems influenced by solar salt farm constructions

Deforestation of mangrove forests is common occurrence worldwide. We examined fish assemblage composition in three mangrove creek systems in Tanzania (East Africa), including two creeks where the upper parts were partly clear-cut of mangrove forest due to the construction of solar salt farms, and one creek with undisturbed mangrove forest. Fish were caught monthly for one year using a seine net (each haul covering 170 m²) within three locations in each creek, i.e. at the upper, intermediate and lower reaches. Density, biomass and species number of fish were lower in the upper deforested sites compared to the mangrove-fringed sites at the intermediate and lower parts in the two creeks affected by deforestation, whereas there were no differences among the three sites in the undisturbed mangrove creek system. In addition, multivariate analyses showed that the structure of fish assemblages varied between forested and clear-cut sites within the two disturbed creeks, but not within the undisturbed creek. Across the season, we found no significant differences except for a tendency of a minor increase in fish densities during the rainy season. At least 75% of the fishes were juveniles and of commercial interest for coastal fisheries and/or aquaculture. Mugil cephalus, Gerres oyena and Chanos chanos were the most abundant species in the forested sites. The dominant species in the clear-cut areas were M. cephalus and Elops machnata, which were both found in relatively low abundances compared to the undisturbed areas. The conversion of mangrove forests into solar salt farms not only altered fish assemblage composition, but also water and sediment conditions. In comparison with undisturbed areas, the clear-cut sites showed higher salinity, water temperature as well as organic matter and chlorophyll a in the sediments. Our results suggest that mangrove habitat loss and changes in environmental conditions caused by salt farm developments will decrease fish densities, biomass and species numbers as well as alter the overall fish assemblage composition in the salt farm area but not downstream in the creek.     

Asteroseismology and interferometry

Asteroseismology provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Recent developments, including the first systematic studies of solar-like pulsators, have boosted the impact of this field of research within astrophysics and have led to a significant increase in the size of the research community. In the present paper we start by reviewing the basic observational and theoretical properties of classical and solar-like pulsators and present results from some of the most recent and outstanding studies of these stars. We centre our review on those classes of pulsators for which interferometric studies are expected to provide a significant input. We discuss current limitations to asteroseismic studies, including difficulties in mode identification and in the accurate determination of global parameters of pulsating stars, and, after a brief review of those aspects of interferometry that are most relevant in this context, anticipate how interferometric observations may contribute to overcome these limitations. Moreover, we present results of recent pilot studies of pulsating stars involving both asteroseismic and interferometric constraints and look into the future, summarizing ongoing efforts concerning the development of future instruments and satellite missions which are expected to have an impact in this field of research.     

Climate change effects on snow melt and discharge of a partly glacierized watershed in Central Switzerland (SoilTrec Critical Zone Observatory)

A comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland is presented. Two models were tested to reproduce the measured discharge dynamics: (1) a detailed energy-balance model (ALPINE3D) primarily designed for snow simulations; (2) a conceptual runoff model system (PREVAH), including a distributed temperature-index snow and ice melt model. Considerable effort was put into distributing available meteorological station data to the model grids as forcing data. The recent EU regional climate modeling initiative ENSEMBLES provided up-to-date climate predictions for two 30-a periods in mid and late 21st century. These were used to estimate evolutions in the water supply of the hydropower reservoir in response to expected climate changes. The simulations suggest a shift of spring peak-flow by almost two months for the end of the century. Warmer winter temperatures will cause higher winter base-flow. Due to glacier retreat, late-summer flow will decrease at the end of the century.     

Impact of chemical and meteorological boundary and initial conditions on air quality modeling: WRF-Chem sensitivity evaluation for a European domain

This study evaluates the impact of different chemical and meteorological boundary and initial conditions on the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its chemistry extension (WRF-Chem). The evaluation is done for July 2005 with 50 km horizontal resolution. The effect of monthly mean chemical boundary conditions derived from the chemical transport model LMDZ-INCA on WRF-Chem is evaluated against the effect of the preset idealized profiles. Likewise, the impact of different meteorological initial and boundary conditions (GFS and Reanalysis II) on the model is evaluated. Pearson correlation coefficient between these different runs range from 0.96 to 1.00. Exceptions exists for chemical boundary conditions on ozone and for meteorological boundary conditions on PM₁₀, where coefficients of 0.90 were obtained. Best results were achieved with boundary and initial conditions from LMDZ-INCA and GFS. Overall, the European simulations show encouraging results for observed air pollutant, with ozone being the most and PM₁₀ being the least satisfying.     

Agreement,significance, and understandings of historical responsibility in climate change negotiations

For over 20 years, Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change have struggled with the normative significance of history for the differentiation of responsibilities. Negotiations on ‘historical responsibility’ have been marked by considerable conflict between developed and developing countries. However, in 2010, the Parties acknowledged the concept in a consensus decision. This article analyses UN Climate Change Conference delegates' agreement with the decision, whether it reconciled conflict between interpretations of historical responsibility, and the significance that delegates ascribe to the decision for future agreements. The decision has not eliminated conflict between different interpretations. Delegates who understand historical responsibility as linking countries' historical contributions to climate change to their responsibilities to act agree more with the decision and foresee it having a stronger influence on future agreements than do those viewing the concept in more conceptual terms. The decision marks the start of negotiations concerning how rather than whether historical responsibility should guide operative text. This article demonstrates that (1) the divergent interpretations pose clear challenges for a necessary but demanding agreement on operationalization, and (2) focusing on an ambiguous version of proportionality between contribution to change and responsibility can become a first step for convergence between divergent positions.     

Cold-Air Pool Processes in the Inn Valley During Föhn: A Comparison of Four Cases During the PIANO Campaign

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We present a comprehensive analysis of four south föhn events observed during the Penetration and Interruption of Alpine Foehn (PIANO) field campaign in the Inn...     

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area equivalence, wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(ε ₀) of Joyner and Boore, Bull Seism Soc Am 83(2):469–487, 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions, which indicate the appropriate modeling of the GMR by an anisotropic point source model. The constructed distances like the Joyner–Boore distance do not work well for event-specific GMRs. We discover also a strong relation between magnitude and the squared expectation of the PGAs being integrated in the geo-space for the event-specific GMRs. One of our secondary contributions is the simple modeling of anisotropy for a point source model.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene terrestrial geomorphodynamics and soil formation in northeastern Germany: a review of geochronological data

ABSTRACT

This study is based on 616 geochronological ages from aeolian and colluvial sediments as well as paleosols, representing the largest database of geochronological data from northeastern Germany available to date. Cumulative probability density functions for radiocarbon data and kernel density estimates for luminescence data were created covering the last 15 ka. The data analysis aimed at the identification of changes and their drivers in geomorphodynamics and soil formation. The ages representing aeolian activity cluster in the Late Glacial, the Early Holocene, and the Late Holocene, where the first two clusters are assumed to result mostly from climatic impact with only a minor share of human impact triggering the mobilization of aeolian sediments. The third cluster is considered to result mainly from human impact. The Late Glacial to Early Holocene activity phase is interrupted by a phase of surface stability around 11.5–12.7 ka, which is indicated by the occurrence of initial soil formations of Finow and Usselo types. Colluvial sedimentation predominantly occurred during the last 7 ka and clearly accelerated since the last 1000 a. According to the ages of specific paleosol types, related soil-forming processes started already in the Late Glacial and were completed in the Holocene.