La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.     

The Suburbanization of Food Insecurity: An Analysis of Projected Trends in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area

Although general patterns of food insecurity in the United States are known, few studies have attempted to estimate small area food security or account for ongoing socioeconomic changes. Here we address these issues by producing small area estimates of food insecurity in the Atlanta metropolitan area using two methodologies: fixed effects modeling and demographic metabolism. In both cases, we use county-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine the association between food insecurity and demographic predictors. These associations are then applied to tract-level data from the 2009 to 2013 American Community Survey and projected data for 2020 to create small area estimates of food insecurity. We find broad consensus between our two methods. For both time periods, food insecurity is highest in southern sections of the city of Atlanta and its neighboring suburbs. Projections to 2020, however, show that food insecurity rates are projected to increase in outer-ring suburbs east and west of the city while decreasing in the urban core. These results highlight the need to further adapt antihunger efforts for often sprawling suburban communities, where poverty rates are increasing but spatial mismatch combined with poor transit access might hinder access to food assistance.     

Coherence of Coronal Mass Ejections in Near-Earth Space

Time–distance helioseismology is a set of powerful tools to study localized features below the Sun’s surface. Inverse methods are needed to robustly interpret time–distance measurements, with many examples in the literature. However, techniques that utilize a more statistical approach to inferences, and that are broadly used in the astronomical community, are less-commonly found in helioseismology. This article aims to introduce a potentially powerful inversion scheme based on Bayesian probability theory and Monte Carlo sampling that is suitable for local helioseismology. We first describe the probabilistic method and how it is conceptually different from standard inversions used in local helioseismology. Several example calculations are carried out to compare and contrast the setup of the problems and the results that are obtained. The examples focus on two important phenomena that are currently outstanding issues in helioseismology: meridional circulation and supergranulation. Numerical models are used to compute synthetic observations, providing the added benefit of knowing the solution against which the results can be tested. For demonstration purposes, the problems are formulated in two and three dimensions, using both ray- and Born-theoretical approaches. The results seem to indicate that the probabilistic inversions not only find a better solution with much more realistic estimation of the uncertainties, but they also provide a broader view of the range of solutions possible for any given model, making the interpretation of the inversion more quantitative in nature. The probabilistic inversions are also easy to set up for a broad range of problems, and they can take advantage of software that is publicly available. Unlike the progress being made in fundamental measurement schemes in local helioseismology that image the far side of the Sun, or have detected signatures of global Rossby waves, among many others, inversions of those measurements have had significantly less success. Such statistical methods may help overcome some of these barriers to move the field forward.

     

Effects of rotation on the colours and line indices of stars 1. The alpha Persei cluster

Analysis of the available observational data for the α-Persei cluster members shows that rotation effects on the intermediate-band indices c₁ and (u-b) are considerable. In c₁, rotation produces a reddening of 0.040 magnitudes per 100 km s^-1 In (u-b) the effect for B stars is found to be 0.06 magnitudes per 100 km s^-1 ofV sin i. The binaries and peculiar stars are found to behave differently in the colour excess (due to rotation) versusV sin i diagrams. These empirical effects can be utilised to recalibrate these colour indices and also to separate members that are either chemically peculiar or in binary systems.     

A study of the relation between intensity oscillations and magnetic field parameters in a sunspot: Hinode observations

We present properties of intensity oscillations of a sunspot in the photosphere and chromosphere using G band and Ca II H filtergrams from Hinode. Intensity power maps as function of magnetic field strength and frequency reveal reduction of power in the G band with an increase in photospheric magnetic field strength at all frequencies. In Ca II H, however, stronger fields exhibit more power at high frequencies, particularly in the 4.5–8.0 mHz band. Power distributions in different locations of the active region show that the oscillations in Ca II H exhibit more power compared to that of the G band. We also relate the power in intensity oscillations with different components of the photospheric vector magnetic field using near simultaneous spectro-polarimetric observations of the sunspot from the Hinode spectropolarimeter. The photospheric umbral power is strongly anti-correlated with the magnetic field strength and its line-of-sight component but there is a good correlation with the transverse component. A reversal of this trend is observed in the chromosphere except at low frequencies(ν≤ 1.5 mHz). The power in sunspot penumbrae is anti-correlated with the magnetic field parameters at all frequencies(1.0 ≤ν≤ 8.0 mHz) in both the photosphere and chromosphere, except that the chromospheric power shows a strong correlation in the frequency range 3–3.5 mHz.     

Conceptualising and measuring psychological preparedness for disaster: The Psychological Preparedness for Disaster Threat Scale

Natural Hazards - Most research on household disaster preparedness has focussed on physical, or material, preparation. Recently, researchers have turned attention to investigating psychological, or...     

Noble gas components in planetary atmospheres and interiors in relation to solar wind and meteorites

We discuss observed xenon isotopic signatures in solar system reservoirs and possible relationships. The predominant trapped xenon component in ordinary chondrites (OC) is OC-Xe and its isotopic signature differs from Xe in ureilites, in carbonaceous chondrites, in the atmospheres of Earth and Mars, and in the solar wind. Additional minor Xe components were identified in type 3 chondrites and in the metal phase of chondrites. The OC-Xe and ureilite signatures are both consistent with varying mixtures of HL-Xe and slightly mass fractionated solar-type Xe. Xenon in the Martian atmosphere is found to be strongly mass fractionated by 37.7‰ per amu, relative to solar Xe, favoring the heavy isotopes. Xenon in SNC’s from the Martian mantle show admixture of solar-type Xe, which belongs to an elementally strongly fractionated component. The origin of the isotopic signatures of Ne and Xe in the terrestrial atmosphere are discussed in the light of evidence that the Xe isotopic fractionations in the Martian and terrestrial atmospheres are consistent. However, in the terrestrial atmospheric Xe component excesses are observed for¹³²Xe and also for^129,131Xe, relative to fractionated solar Xe. The suggested chemically fractionated fission Xe component (CFF-Xe) seems to closely match the above excesses. We discuss models of origin for planetary volatiles and possible processes driving their evolution to present day compositions.     

Dynamics of settling-driven convection beneath a sediment-laden buoyant overflow: Implications for the length-scale of deposition in lakes and the coastal ocean

A series of laboratory experiments was conducted in order to determine how settling-driven convection influences the length-scale over which the majority of particles settle beneath a buoyant sediment-laden plume spreading over a denser saline layer. This system is analogous to sediment-laden river water spreading into a lake or the coastal ocean. The key dimensionless parameter that controls the settling dynamics of such flows is the density ratio, defined as the ratio of density differences due to the added salt and sediment. For a buoyant plume, this ratio has to be greater than unity, so that the experiments in the current study were performed for density ratios between one and five. When density ratio was close to one, settling-driven convection was vigorous and the length-scale over which sedimentation occurred was very small. A strong secondary turbidity current was generated in this case. On the other hand, for larger values of density ratio, the predicted length-scale over which a secondary plume was generated increased in proportion to the density ratio. A complete mathematical expression for this length-scale was developed using recent theory that described the timescale over which settling-driven convection evolved. The theoretically predicted propagation length-scale showed very good quantitative agreement with laboratory experiments. The use of the dimensionless density ratio allows the expression to predict which sediment-laden river plumes in lakes and the coastal ocean could quickly form secondary turbidity currents.