The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy

This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement.     

Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra

Several independent indicators imply a high probability of a great (M > 8) earthquake rupture of the subduction megathrust under the Mentawai Islands of West Sumatra. The human consequences of such an event depend crucially on its tsunamigenic potential, which in turn depends on unpredictable details of slip distribution on the megathrust and how resulting seafloor movements and the propagating tsunami waves interact with bathymetry. Here we address the forward problem by modelling about 1000 possible complex earthquake ruptures and calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions that would result from the most likely 100 or so, as judged by reference to paleogeodetic data. Additionally we carry out a systematic study of the importance of the location of maximum slip with respect to the morphology of the fore-arc complex. Our results indicate a generally smaller regional tsunami hazard than was realised in Aceh during the December 2004 event, though more than 20% of simulations result in tsunami wave heights of more than 5 m for the southern Sumatran cities of Padang and Bengkulu. The extreme events in these simulations produce results which are consistent with recent deterministic studies. The study confirms the sensitivity of predicted wave heights to the distribution of slip even for events with similar moment and reproduces Plafker's rule of thumb. Additionally we show that the maximum wave height observed at a single location scales with the magnitude though data for all magnitudes exhibit extreme variability. Finally, we show that for any coastal location in the near field of the earthquake, despite the complexity of the earthquake rupture simulations and the large range of magnitudes modelled, the timing of inundation is constant to first order and the maximum height of the modelled waves is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that point. These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness strategies around the Indian Ocean and in particular along the coasts of western Sumatra.     

The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size explosive event at the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The Averno 2 eruption (3,700 ± 50 a B.P.) was an explosive low-magnitude event characterized by magmatic and phreatomagmatic explosions, generating mainly fall and surge beds, respectively. It occurred in the Western sector of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campanian Region, South Italy) at the intersection of two active fault systems, oriented NE and NW. The morphologically complex crater area, largely filled by the Averno lake, resulted from vent activation and migration along the NE-trending fault system. The eruption generated a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits, including pumice fall deposits in the lower portion, and prevailing surge beds in the intermediate-upper portion. The pyroclastic sequence has been studied through stratigraphical, morphostructural and petrological investigations, and subdivided into three members named A through C. Member A was emplaced during the first phase of the eruption mainly by magmatic explosions which generated columns reaching a maximum height of 10 km. During this phase the eruption reached its climax with a mass discharge rate of 3.2 10⁶ kg/s. Intense fracturing and fault activation favored entry of a significant amount of water into the system, which produced explosions driven by variably efficient water-magma interaction. These explosions generated wet to dry surge deposits that emplaced Member B and C, respectively. Isopachs and isopleths maps, as well as areal distribution of ballistic fragments and facies variation of surge deposits allow definition of four vents that opened along a NE oriented, 2 km long fissure. The total volume of magma extruded during the eruption has been estimated at about 0.07 km³ (DRE). The erupted products range in composition from initial, weakly peralkaline alkali-trachyte, to last-emplaced alkali-trachyte. Isotopic data and modeling suggest that mixing occurred during the Averno 2 eruption between a more evolved, less radiogenic stored magma, and a less evolved, more radiogenic magma that entered the shallow reservoir to trigger the eruption. The early phases of the eruption, during which the vent migrated from SW to the center of the present lake, were fed by the more evolved, uppermost magma, while the following phases extruded the less evolved, lowermost magma. Integration of the geological and petrological results suggests that the Averno 2 complex eruption was fed from a dyke-shaped shallow reservoir intruded into the NE-SW fault system bordering to the west the La Starza resurgent block, within the caldera floor.     

Improved Parameterization of Snow Albedo in WRF + Noah: Methodology Based on a Severe Snow Event on the Tibetan Plateau

Snowfall and the subsequent evolution of the snowpack have a large effect on the surface energy balance and water cycle of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The effects of snow cover can be represented by the WRF coupled with a land surface scheme. The widely used Noah scheme is computationally efficient, but its poor representation of albedo needs considerable improvement. In this study, an improved albedo scheme is developed using a satellite-retrieved albedo that takes snow depth and age into account. Numerical experiments were then conducted to simulate a severe snow event in March 2017. The performance of the coupled WRF/Noah model, which implemented the improved albedo scheme, is compared against the model’s performance using the default Noah albedo scheme and against the coupled WRF/CLM that applied CLM albedo scheme. When the improved albedo scheme is implemented, the albedo overestimation in the southeastern TP is reduced, reducing the RMSE of the air temperature by 0.7°C. The improved albedo scheme also attains the highest correlation between the satellite-derived and the model-estimated albedo, which provides for a realistic representation of both the snow water equivalent (SWE) spatial distribution in the heavy snowbelt (SWE > 6 mm) and the maximum SWE in the eastern TP. The underestimated albedo in the coupled WRF/CLM leads to underestimating the regional maximum SWE and a consequent failure to estimate SWE in the heavy snowbelt accurately. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of improving the Noah albedo scheme and provides a theoretical reference for researchers aiming to improve albedo schemes further.     

Bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks: new challenges from structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry for post‐event analysis

Drainage channels are an integral part of agricultural landscapes, and their impact on catchment hydrology is strongly recognized. In cultivated and urbanized floodplains, channels have always played a key role in flood protection, land reclamation, and irrigation. Bank erosion is a critical issue in channels. Neglecting this process, especially during flood events, can result in underestimation of the risk in flood‐prone areas. The main aim of this work is to consider a low‐cost methodology for the analysis of bank erosion in agricultural drainage networks, and in particular for the estimation of the volumes of eroded and deposited material. A case study located in the Veneto floodplain was selected. The research is based on high‐resolution topographic data obtained by an emerging low‐cost photogrammetric method (structure‐from‐motion or SfM), and results are compared to terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data. For the SfM analysis, extensive photosets were obtained using two standalone reflex digital cameras and an iPhone5® built‐in camera. Three digital elevation models (DEMs) were extracted at the resolution of 0.1 m using SfM and were compared with the ones derived by TLS. Using the different DEMs, the eroded areas were then identified using a feature extraction technique based on the topographic parameter Roughness Index (RI). DEMs derived from SfM were effective for both detecting erosion areas and estimating quantitatively the deposition and erosion volumes. Our results underlined how smartphones with high‐resolution built‐in cameras can be competitive instruments for obtaining suitable data for topography analysis and Earth surface monitoring. This methodology could be potentially very useful for farmers and/or technicians for post‐event field surveys to support flood risk management. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolution of the mantle source beneath Mt. Etna (Sicily,Italy): from the 600 ka tholeiites to the recent trachybasaltic magmas

ABSTRACT

The spatial/temporal proximity of Mt. Etna to the Hyblean Plateau and the Aeolian slab makes the discussion on the nature of its mantle source/s extremely controversial. In this study, a detailed geochemical overview of the entire Mt. Etna evolutionary sequence and a comparison with the magmatism of the Hyblean Plateau was proposed to: (i) simulate the composition of Mt. Etna tholeiitic to alkaline primitive magmas in equilibrium with a fertile mantle source; (ii) model the nature, composition and evolution of the mantle source from the tholeiitic stage (600 ka) to present magmatism. According to our simulations, two amphibole + phlogopite-bearing spinel lherzolite sources are able to explain the wide range of Etnean primary magmas. The enrichment in LILE, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Rb and H₂O of the magmas emitted after 1971 (but also discontinuously generated in both historic and prehistoric times) are caused by different melting proportions of amphibole and phlogopite in a modally and compositionally homogeneous mantle domain, with melting degrees analogous to those required to produce magmas erupted prior to 1971. The behaviour of the hydrous phases during melting could be ascribed to a variable H₂O/CO₂ activity in the mantle source, in turn related to the heat/fluxes supply from the asthenospheric upwelling beneath Mt. Etna. All these considerations, strengthened by numerical models, are then merged to review the complex Pliocene/Lower Pleistocene to present day’s geodynamic evolution of eastern Sicily.     

New constraints on the origin and age of Variscan eclogitic rocks (Ligurian Alps,Italy)

Gabbro and eclogite boudins are preserved within the amphibolites of the composite para- and ortho-gneiss Variscan basement of the Savona Crystalline Massif (Ligurian Briançonnais, Italy). Whole rock trace element patterns, low initial εNd (+5.4 to +8.8) data and trace element analyses on relict igneous clinopyroxene revealed that the mafic rocks were derived from depleted mantle melts, which most likely underwent crustal contamination during emplacement. Gabbros have a cumulus origin controlled by clinopyroxene and plagioclase segregation, whereas the eclogites represent evolved melts. U-Pb and trace element micro-analyses on zircons separated from one amphibolitised gabbro and one eclogite help to constrain coeval ages at ~468 Ma for their igneous protoliths. The occurrence of a few inherited zircons confirms the involvement of a crustal component in the petrogenesis of the mafic rocks. In the eclogite, concordant zircon ages younger than the protolith age testify to metamorphic re-crystallisation (or new growth) from about 420 to 305 Ma. Zircon textures and trace element compositions indicate that eclogite facies metamorphism occurred 392–376 Ma ago. The younger zircon portions yielding a mean Concordia age of 333 ± 7 Ma are related to equilibration or new growth during the post-eclogite, amphibolite-facies equilibration.     

Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam: challenges and potentials

This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages, often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.

Re–Os and Pb–Pb geochronology of the Archean Salobo iron oxide copper–gold deposit, Carajás mineral province, northern Brazil

Rhenium–osmium ages were determined for two molybdenite samples and a Pb–Pb age was derived from bornite–chalcopyrite–magnetite at the Salobo iron oxide copper–gold deposit to determine the timing of mineralization and its relation to the nearby Old Salobo Granite. Rhenium–osmium dating of molybdenite spatially associated with copper sulfide minerals yields ages with weighted means of 2576±8 and 2562±8 Ma. Removing the error multiplier introduced by the decay constant uncertainty, appropriate for comparing ages from the same isotopic system, these data convincingly argue for two temporally separated pulses of molybdenite deposition at 2576.1±1.4 Ma (n=2) and 2561.7±3.1 Ma (n=3). The 2576±8 Ma age coincides with a previously published U–Pb age of 2573±2 Ma for the Old Salobo Granite, suggesting that main stage ore formation may have been contemporaneous with granite magmatism. The slightly younger 2562 Ma age most likely represents new molybdenite precipitation associated with the development or reactivation of local shear zones. Lead–lead stepwise leaching of copper sulfide minerals yields a less precise isochron age of 2579±71 Ma, and supports an Archean age for the Salobo ores. This is the first documentation of an Archean iron oxide copper–gold deposit, and the Re–Os and Pb–Pb geochronology herein support 2580–2550 Ma estimates for basement reactivation and regional granite magmatism associated with the development of brittle–ductile shear zones.     

Sr isotopic evidence for a multi-source origin of the potassic magmas in the neapolitan area (S. Italy)

New Sr isotopic data on lavas and xenoliths from Somma-Vesuvius and other nearby volcanic areas (Phlegrean Fields and Ischia) are presented. Chemical and isotopic evidences show that not all the Phlegrean Fields rocks belong to the low K series, but some of them may be interpreted as low pressure differentiates of Somma magmas, i.e. as a part of the high K series. Two rock groups are defined in the Ischia low K series, which are well identified both in time and in chemical and isotopic features, and cannot be derived from the same magma source. The low K series in the studied area generally has lower Sr isotopic values than the high K series.Historical Vesuvian lavas show two distinct linear trends with negative slopes when⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are plotted against their ages of eruption. Such trends are interpreted to result from mixing of magmas in two separate reservoirs. Evidence from the Vesuvian ejecta shows that Somma-Vesuvius magmas underwent high or low pressure fractionation, in connection with different events of the Vesuvian activity. Distinct magma reservoirs developed episodically at different depths. Isotopic and geochemical evidences do not favour large scale assimilation of crustal materials by Somma-Vesuvius magmas, but instead appear to reflect mantle characteristics.A minimum of three different (inhomogeneous) source regions is necessary to account for the isotopic features of the studied rocks.