A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫₀ ^∞ P^*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P^* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.     

Adiabatic chaos in the spin–orbit problem

We provide evidences that the angular momentum of a symmetric rigid body in a spin–orbit resonance can perform large scale chaotic motions on time scales which increase polynomially with the inverse of the oblateness of the body. This kind of irregular precession appears as soon as the orbit of the center of mass is non-circular and the angular momentum of the body is far from the principal directions with minimum (maximum) moment of inertia. We also provide a quantitative explanation of these facts by using the theory of adiabatic invariants, and we provide numerical applications to the cases of the 1:1 and 1:2 spin–orbit resonances.     

Finite element analysis of land subsidence above depleted reservoirs with pore pressure gradient and total stress formulations

The solution of the poroelastic equations for predicting land subsidence above productive gas/oil fields may be addressed by the principle of virtual works using either the effective intergranular stress, with the pore pressure gradient regarded as a distributed body force, or the total stress incorporating the pore pressure. In the finite element (FE) method both approaches prove equivalent at the global assembled level. However, at the element level apparently the equivalence does not hold, and the strength source related to the pore pressure seems to generate different local forces on the element nodes. The two formulations are briefly reviewed and discussed for triangular and tetrahedral finite elements. They are shown to yield different results at the global level as well in a three‐dimensional axisymmetric porous medium if the FE integration is performed using the average element‐wise radius. A modification to both formulations is suggested which allows to correctly solve the problem of a finite reservoir with an infinite pressure gradient, i.e. with a pore pressure discontinuity on its boundary. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LIDAR Data Filtering and DTM Interpolation Within GRASS

LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is one of the most recent technologies in surveying and mapping. LIDAR is based on the combination of three different data collection tools: a laser scanner mounted on an aircraft, a Global Positioning System (GPS) used in phase differential kinematic modality to provide the sensor position and an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to provide the orientation. The laser sends towards the ground an infrared signal, which is reflected back to the sensor. The time employed by the signal, given the aircraft position and attitude, allows computation of the earth point elevation. In standard conditions, taking into account the flight (speed 200–250 km/hour, altitude 500–2,000 m) and sensor characteristics (scan angle ± 10–20 degrees, emission rate 2,000–50,000 pulses per second), earth elevations are collected within a density of one point every 0.5–3 m. The technology allows us therefore to obtain very accurate (5–20 cm) and high resolution Digital Surface Models (DSM). For many applications, the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is needed: we have to automatically detect and discard from the previous DSM all the features (buildings, trees, etc.) present on the terrain. This paper describes a procedure that has been implemented within GRASS to construct DTMs from LIDAR source data.     

IFKIS-Hydro: an early warning and information system for floods and debris flows

IFKIS-Hydro is an information and warning system for hydrological hazards in small- and medium-scale catchments. The system collects data such as weather forecasts, precipitation measurements, water level gauges, discharge simulations and local observations of event-specific phenomena. In addition, IFKIS-Hydro incorporates a web-based information platform, which serves as a central hub for the submission and overview of data. Special emphasis is given to local information. This is accomplished particularly by human observers. In medium-scale catchments, discharge forecast models have an increasing importance in providing valuable information. IFKIS-Hydro was developed in several test regions in Switzerland and the first results of its application are available now. The system is constantly extended to additional regions and may become the standard for warning systems in smaller catchments in Switzerland.     

A prototype system for earthquake early-warning and alert management in southern Italy

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, M _s 6.9 Campania–Lucania earthquake. It is set up by 28 stations and covers an area of about 100 × 70 km². Each site is equipped with a 1-g full-scale accelerometer and a short-period velocimeter. Due to its design characteristics, i.e., the wide dynamic range and the high density of stations, the ISNet network is mainly devoted to estimating in real-time the earthquake location and magnitude from low- to high- magnitude events, and to providing ground-motion parameters values so to get some insights about the ground shaking expected. Moreover, the availability of high-quality of data allows studying the source processes related to the seismogenetic structures in the area. The network layout, the data communication system and protocols and the main instrumental features are described in the paper. The data analysis is managed by Earthworm software package that also provides the earthquake location while custom software has been developed for real-time computation of the source parameters and shaking maps. Technical details about these procedures are given in the article. The data collected at the ISNet stations are available upon request.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

Size matters: Short term loss and long term gain in a size-selective fishery

The maximum sustainable yield concept (MSY) and the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) have been recently adopted by the European Commission with the objective to achieve, over the long term, the highest possible sustainable yield from a given exploited stock. In this context, a fishing mortality MSY reference level (i.e., F_MSY) should be defined, taking into account recruitment, growth and natural mortality under current or recent ecosystem conditions. Thus, F_MSY is used as a generic term for a robust estimate of a fishing mortality level that is associated with high sustainable yield in the long term, assuming the current harvesting regime in terms of size selectivity. In this study, using the Eastern Baltic cod as an example, we challenge this rather simplified view showing that by using a different harvest selectivity and thus changing the size range of harvested cod, it is possible to largely increase the yield and revenue from the fishery compared to the fishing mortality stipulated in the management plan (i.e., F_MSY), while assuring sustainable high yield in the long term. Thus, implementing the MSY concept in terms of fishing mortality but neglecting selective harvesting effects will not achieve high long term sustainable yield for Eastern Baltic cod. The combination of size selective harvesting and economic reasoning may offer an important tool for the management of marine resources by potentially providing a common currency for the different stakeholders and offer guidance to achieve long term sustainability and human well-being. This would represent the natural step forward in the implementation of EAFM and MSY concepts.     

From river to shelf,anatomy of a high‐frequency depositional sequence: The Late Pleistocene to Holocene Tiber depositional sequence

The Late Pleistocene/Holocene Tiber delta succession represents the most recent and one of the best preserved, high‐frequency/low‐rank depositional sequences developed along the Latium continental margin of the Italian peninsula. Several previous studies have established a robust data set from which it has been possible to describe the stratigraphic architecture of the entire Tiber depositional sequence from the landward to seaward sectors and over a distance of 60 km. The Tiber depositional sequence shows many characteristics found in other Late Pleistocene to Holocene deltaic and coastal successions of the Mediterranean area. The stratigraphic architecture of the Tiber depositional sequence is controlled mainly by glacioeustasy, although factors such as tectonic uplift, volcanism and subsidence, exert an influence at a local scale. The resulting depositional model allowed discussion of some important points such as: (1) the genesis of the Tiber mixed bedrock‐alluvial valley, extending from the coastal plain to the innermost portion of the shelf, recording (i) multiple episodes of incision during relative sea‐level fall, and (ii) a downstream increase of depth and width of the valley during the base‐level fall and the subsequent base‐level rise; (2) the different physical expression of the Tiber depositional sequence boundary from landward to seaward, and its diachronous and composite character; (3) the maximum depth reached by the Tiber early lowstand delta at the end of the sea‐level fall is estimated at ca 90 m below the present sea‐level and not at 120 m as suggested by previous works; (4) the backward position of the Tiber late lowstand delta relative to the deposit of early lowstand; (5) the change of the channel pattern and of the stacking pattern of fluvial deposits within the Lowstand Systems Tract, Transgressive Systems Tract and Highstand Systems Tract. All of these features indicate that the Late Pleistocene/Holocene Tiber delta succession, even if deposited in a short period of time from a geological point of view, represents the result of the close interaction among many autogenic and allogenic factors. However, global eustatic variations and sediment supply under the control of climatic changes can be considered the main factors responsible for the stratigraphic architecture of this sedimentary succession, which has been heavily modified by human activity only in the last 3000 years.