Constraining the dark matter annihilation cross-section with Cherenkov telescope observations of dwarf galaxies

The presence of dark matter in the halo of our Galaxy could be revealed through indirect detection of its annihilation products. Dark matter annihilation is one possible interpretation of the recently measured excesses in positron and electron fluxes, provided that boost factors of the order of 10³ or more are taken into account. Such boost factors are actually achievable through the velocity-dependent Sommerfeld enhancement of the annihilation cross-section. Here, we study the expected γ-ray flux from two local dwarf galaxies for which Cherenkov telescope measurements are available, namely Draco and Sagittarius. We use recent stellar kinematical measurements to model the dark matter haloes of the dwarfs and the results of numerical simulations to model the presence of an associated population of subhaloes. We incorporate the Sommerfeld enhancement of the annihilation cross-section. We compare our predictions with the observations of Draco and Sagittarius performed by MAGIC and HESS, respectively, and derive exclusion limits on the effective annihilation cross-section. We also study the sensitivities of Fermi and of the future Cherenkov telescope array to cross-section enhancements. We find that the boost factor due to the Sommerfeld enhancement is already constrained by the MAGIC and HESS data, with enhancements greater than ∼10⁴ being excluded.     

Development and Application of 2D and 3D GRASS Modules for Simulation of Thermally Driven Slope Winds

The ability to manage and process fully three‐dimensional information has only recently been made available for a few Geographical Information Systems (GIS). An example of integrated and complementary use of 2D and 3D GRASS modules for the evaluation and representation of thermally induced slope winds over complex terrain is presented. The analytic solution provided by Prandtl (1942) to evaluate wind velocity and (potential) temperature anomaly induced by either diurnal heating or nocturnal cooling on a constant angle slope is adopted to evaluate wind and temperature profiles at any point over both idealised and real complex terrain. As these quantities depend on the slope angle of the ground and on the distance from the slope surface suitable procedures are introduced to determine the coordinate n of a point in the 3D volume measured along the direction locally normal to the terrain surface. A new GRASS module has been developed to evaluate this quantity and to generate a 3D raster file where each cell is assigned the value of the cell on the surface belonging to the normal vector. The application of the algorithm implemented in GRASS to an ideal valley and to a real valley close to the city of Trento in the Alps provides results in accordance with data reported in the literature. An extension of Prandtl's (1942) model to take into account humidity and evaporation processes on the soil is also proposed and implemented.     

No significant Alpine tectonic overprint on the Cimmerian Strandja Massif (SE Bulgaria and NW Turkey)

We provide the first comprehensive picture of the thermochronometric evolution of the Cimmerian Strandja metamorphic massif of SE Bulgaria and NW Turkey, concluding that the bulk of the massif has escaped significant Alpine-age deformation. Following Late Jurassic heating, the central part of the massif underwent a Kimmeridgian-Berriasian phase of relatively rapid cooling followed by very slow cooling in Cretaceous-to-Early Eocene times. These results are consistent with a Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous Neocimmerian (palaeo-Alpine) phase of north-verging thrust imbrication and regional metamorphism, followed by slow cooling/exhumation driven by erosion. From a thermochronometric viewpoint, the bulk of the Cimmerian Strandja orogen was largely unaffected by the compressional stress related to the closure of the Vardar–?zmir–Ankara oceanic domain(s) to the south, contrary to the adjacent Rhodopes. Evidence of Alpine-age deformation is recorded only in the northern sector of the Strandja massif, where both basement and sedimentary rocks underwent cooling/exhumation associated with an important phase of shortening of the East Balkan fold-and-thrust belt starting in the Middle–Late Eocene. Such shortening focused in the former Srednogorie rift zone because this area had been rheologically weakened by Late Cretaceous extension.     

Grazing Management Plans improve pasture selection by cattle and forage quality in sub-alpine and alpine grasslands

Over the last decades, the reduction of manpower for herd management has led to an increase of continuous grazing systems(CGS) in the Italian Alps, which allow cattle to roam freely. Under CGS, due to high selectivity, livestock exploit grasslands unevenly, over-and under-using specific areas at the same time with negative effects on their conservation. To counteract these effects, a specific policy and management tool(i.e. Grazing Management Plan) has been implemented by Piedmont Region since 2010. The Grazing Management Plans are based on the implementation of rotational grazing systems(RGS), with animal stocking rate adjusted to balance it with grassland carrying capacity. A case study was conducted on alpine summer pastures to test the 5-year effects produced by the implementation of a Grazing Management Plan in grasslands formerly managed under several years of CGS on 1) the selection for different vegetation communities by cattle, 2) the abundance of oligo-, meso-, and eutrophic plant species(defined according to Landolt N indicator value), and 3) forage yield, quality, and palatability. A total of 193 vegetation surveys were carried out in 2011 and repeated in 2016. Cows were tracked yearly with Global Positioning System collars to assess their grazing selectivity, and forage Pastoral Value(PV) was computed to evaluate forage yield, quality, and palatability. Five years after RGS implementation, cow selectivity significantly decreased and the preference for the different vegetation communities was more balanced than under CGS. The abundance of meso-and eutrophic species increased, whereas oligotrophic ones decreased. Moreover, the abundance of moderately to highly palatable plant species increased, whereas non-palatable plant species decreased, with a consequent significant enhancement of the PV. Our findings indicate that the implementation of Grazing Management Plans can be considered a sustainable and effective management tool for improving pasture selection by cattle and forage quality in mountain pastures.     

Event Scenario Analysis for the Design of Rockslide Countermeasures

The Torgiovannetto quarry（Assisi municipality,central Italy） is an example of a site where the natural equilibrium was altered by human activity,causing current slope instability phenomena which threaten two roadways important for the local transportation.The quarry front,having a height of about 140 m,is affected by a 182,000 m3 rockslide developed in intensely fractured limestone and is too large to be stabilized.In 2003 some tension cracks were detected in the vegetated area above the quarry upper sector.From then on,several monitoring campaigns were carried out by means of different instrumentations（topographic total station,extensometers,inclinometers,ground-based interferometric radar,laser scanner and infrared thermal camera）,allowing researchers to accurately define the landslide area and volume.The latter’s major displacements are localized in the eastern sector.The deformational field appears to be related to the seasonal rainfall.The landslide hazard associated with the worst case scenario was evaluated in terms of magnitude,intensity and triggering mechanism.For the definition of the possible runout process the DAN 3D code was employed.The simulation results were used in order to design and construct a retaining embankment.Furthermore,in order to preserve both the safety of the personnelinvolved in its realization and of the roadways users,an early warning system was implemented.The early warning system is based on daily-averaged displacement velocity thresholds.The alarm level is reached if the prediction based on the methods of Saito（1969） and Fukuzono（1985） forecasts an imminent rupture.     

Lava flow hazard and risk at Mt. Cameroon volcano

Mt. Cameroon is one of the most active effusive volcanoes in Africa. About 500,000 people living or working around its fertile flanks are subject to significant threat from lava flow inundation. Lava flow hazard and risk were assessed by simulating probable lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW code. The vent opening probability density function and lava flow length distribution were determined on the basis of available data from past eruptions at Mt. Cameroon volcano. Code calibration was performed through comparison with real lava flow paths. The topographic basis for simulations was the 90-m resolution SRTM DEM. Simulated lava flows from about 80,000 possible vents were used to produce a detailed lava flow hazard map. The lava flow risk in the area was mapped by combining the hazard map with digitized infrastructures (i.e., human settlements and roads). Results show that the risk of lava flow inundation is greatest in the most inhabited coastal areas comprising the town of Limbe, which constitutes the center of Cameroon’s oil industry and an important commercial port. Buea, the second most important town in the area, has a much lower risk although it is significantly closer to the summit of the volcano. Non-negligible risk characterizes many villages and most roads in the area surrounding the volcano. In addition to the conventional risk mapping described above, we also present (1) two reversed risk maps (one for buildings and one for roads), where each point on the volcano is classified according to the total damage expected as a consequence of vent opening at that point; (2) maps of the lava catchments for the two main towns of Limbe and Buea, illustrating the expected damage upon venting at any point in the catchment basin. The hazard and risk maps provided here represent valuable tools for both medium/long-term land-use planning and real-time volcanic risk management and decision making.     

From Middle Jurassic heating to Neogene cooling: The thermochronological evolution of the southern Alps

The Dolomite region is located in the Southern Alps, which were affected by Mesozoic extensional tectonics and by consequent thermal perturbations. In this work, vitrinite reflectance and apatite fission-track analysis are used to estimate the thermal evolution. These methodologies have been applied to the Permo-Mesozoic succession, which crops out along the TRANSALP seismic profile. The regional distribution of the organic matter maturity seems to be mainly controlled by different burials reached during the Norian-Liassic extensional phase, in connection with high heat flow values. The best solutions obtained from thermal modelling of both vitrinite and fission-track data suggest that peak of high heat flow occurred during Bajocian–Bathonian ages, when western Tethys was characterized by intrusions of gabbros and plagiogranites and extrusion of tholeiite basalts. This time coincides with the onset of the drifting phase and related thermal subsidence. The following thermal relaxation occurred during continuous sedimentation and the maximum burial does not coincide with peak temperatures. Cooling history has been carefully analysed through apatite fission-track data on samples collected close to the Valsugana overthrust, which document an important exhumation event at about 10 Ma. The related erosion has been analysed through the combined use of arenite petrography and fission-track analysis on detrital samples of the Veneto foredeep succession, which represents the storage of detritus during Tertiary. These data confirm that after Serravalian the Southalpine domain and related covers were affected by subaerial erosion.     

Socio-hydrological modelling of flood-risk dynamics: comparing the resilience of green and technological systems

This work aims to provide a dynamic assessment of flood risk and community resilience by explicitly accounting for variable human behaviour, e.g. risk-taking and awareness-raising attitudes. We consider two different types of socio-hydrological systems: green systems, whereby societies deal with risk only via non-structural measures, and technological systems, whereby risk is dealt with also by structural measures, such as levees. A stylized model of human–flood interactions is first compared to real-world data collected at two test sites (People’s Republic of Bangladesh and the city of Rome, Italy) and then used to explore plausible trajectories of flood risk. The results show that flood risk in technological systems tends to be significantly lower than in green systems. However, technological systems may undergo catastrophic events, which lead to much higher losses. Furthermore, green systems prove to be more resilient than technological ones, which makes them more capable of withstanding environmental and social changes.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

On the rheological characterisation of liquefied sands through the dam-breaking test

This paper concerns the rheological characterisation of liquefied sands as non-Newtonian Bingham fluids. For this purpose, dam-breaking laboratory tests are often executed and interpreted, offering a viable option to identify the properties of fluidised water-soil mixtures. However, limited attention has been devoted so far to clarify what variables and measurements would allow unambiguous calibration of Bingham parameters, namely, the viscosity η and the yield stress τ_y. The numerical results of parametric studies based on the particle finite element method (PFEM) are critically inspected to gain deeper insight into the problem. First, it is confirmed that multiple η − τ_y pairs may reproduce the same experimental evidence when formed by only one measurement—usually, the post–dam-breaking displacement of the bottom toe (tip) of the liquefied mass. Then, two alternative procedures are proposed for unambiguous identification of both η and τ_y: one is based on monitoring the evolving aspect ratio of the fluid mass during free, gravity-driven flow; the other relies on a slightly different dam-breaking test, also including impact against a rigid obstacle. In particular, the latter approach reduces the relevant duration of the test, reducing the possible influence of reconsolidation effects on the calibration of rheological parameters.