Simultaneous estimation of cross-validation errors in least squares collocation applied for statistical testing and evaluation of the noise variance components

The cross-validation technique is a popular method to assess and improve the quality of prediction by least squares collocation (LSC). We present a formula for direct estimation of the vector of cross-validation errors (CVEs) in LSC which is much faster than element-wise CVE computation. We show that a quadratic form of CVEs follows Chi-squared distribution. Furthermore, a posteriori noise variance factor is derived by the quadratic form of CVEs. In order to detect blunders in the observations, estimated standardized CVE is proposed as the test statistic which can be applied when noise variances are known or unknown. We use LSC together with the methods proposed in this research for interpolation of crustal subsidence in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that after detection and removing outliers, the root mean square (RMS) of CVEs and estimated noise standard deviation are reduced about 51 and 59%, respectively. In addition, RMS of LSC prediction error at data points and RMS of estimated noise of observations are decreased by 39 and 67%, respectively. However, RMS of LSC prediction error on a regular grid of interpolation points covering the area is only reduced about 4% which is a consequence of sparse distribution of data points for this case study. The influence of gross errors on LSC prediction results is also investigated by lower cutoff CVEs. It is indicated that after elimination of outliers, RMS of this type of errors is also reduced by 19.5% for a 5 km radius of vicinity. We propose a method using standardized CVEs for classification of dataset into three groups with presumed different noise variances. The noise variance components for each of the groups are estimated using restricted maximum-likelihood method via Fisher scoring technique. Finally, LSC assessment measures were computed for the estimated heterogeneous noise variance model and compared with those of the homogeneous model. The advantage of the proposed method is the reduction in estimated noise levels for those groups with the fewer number of noisy data points.     

Spatial Distribution of Fractures in the Asmari Formation of Iran in Subsurface Environment: Effect of Lithology and Petrophysical Properties

The distribution of fractures and its dependence on lithology and petrophysical properties of rock in the Asmari Formation were examined using three wells data of one of the largest oil fields of southwestern Iran. Fractures were measured on cut cores. Mineral content and petrophysical data were obtained through thin section study and core plug measurement respectively. Influence of mineral composition and petrophysical property of rocks on fracture density was explored statistically. Increasing quartz (sand) and anhydrite content of rocks decrease and dolomite increases the threshold of fracture densities, however no significant relation was observed between calcite content of rock and fracture density. Increasing porosity and permeability of rock decrease the threshold of fracture density in some of the defined lithology groups. There are significant differences between the lithology groups in terms of fracture density, although the results in the three wells are not the same. In whole data, the highest fracture density can be observed in dolostone. Limestone and impure carbonates hold broader spaced fractures and sandstones display the least fracture density. The average fracture densities in the wells are strictly different. These differences are the result of the structural position of the wells and also the trend of the well and fractures. The distribution of fractures in most lithology groups can be explained by the function: , where F is relative frequency, D is fracture density and a, b, and c are constants.     

Value of Information Introduced by a Resource Model Updating Framework

A primary concern of the mining industry is to meet production targets, which are required and defined by customers. Deviations from these targets, in terms of quality and quantity, highly affect the economical aspect. Recently, an efficient resource model updating framework concept has been proposed aiming for the improvement of raw material quality control and process efficiency in any type of mining operation. The concept integrates online sensor measurements, obtained during production, into the resource model. In this way, due to the spatial variability, quality attributes of the blocks that will be produced in the next days or weeks are being updated based on real-time measurements. The concept has been applied in a lignite field with the aim of identifying local impurities in a lignite seam and to improve the prediction of coal quality attributes in neighbouring blocks. This paper investigates the added value of using the resource model updating framework by using the value of information analysis. The expected benefit of additional information (integration of the online sensor measurements into the resource model) is compared to a case where there is no additional information integrated into the process. These benefits are evaluated based on the economic impact determined by applying the resource model updating framework in mine planning.

     

Identifying Groundwater Potential in Crystalline Basement Rocks Using Remote Sensing and Electromagnetic Sounding Techniques in Central Western Mozambique

Exploring for groundwater in crystalline rocks in semiarid areas is a challenge because of their complex hydrogeology and low potential yields. An integrated approach was applied in central western Mozambique, in an area covered by Precambrian crystalline basement rocks. The approach combined a digital elevation model (DEM), remote sensing, and a ground-based geophysical survey. The aim was to identify groundwater zones with high potential and to identify geological structures controlling that potential. Lineaments were extracted from the DEM that had been enhanced using an adaptive-tilt, multi-directional, shading technique and a non-filtering technique to characterize the regional fracture system. The shallowness and amount of stored groundwater in the fracture zones was assessed using vegetation indices derived from Landsat 8 OLI images. Then, 14 transient electromagnetic (TEM) survey profiles were taken in different geological settings across continuous lineaments that were considered to be aligned along inferred faults. In the central lineament zones, the TEM soundings gave resistivity values of less than 300 Ωm at a depth of 20–80 m. The values varied with location. Conversely, values greater than 400 Ωm were observed at the sites away from the central zones. This contrast is probably caused by the differences in permeability and degree of weathering along the fractured zones. These differences could be key factors in determining groundwater occurrence. By integrating five water-related factors (lineament density, slope, geology, vegetation index, and proximity to lineaments), high groundwater potential zones were located in the vicinity of the lineaments. In these zones, vegetation remains active regardless of the season.     

基于地理信息系统的植被退化风险评估:以伊朗Qareh Aghaj盆地为例（英文）

伊朗南部面临各种类型的土地退化问题,其中植被退化是其中主要类型之一。本研究选择蒙特河上游地区的Qareh Aghaj盆地(1 265 000公顷)进行土地退化的风险评估。基于多源的植被退化指标的数据,开发了一种新的模型来评估植被退化的风险。该模型选择植被退化的九个指标,确定了具有"潜在风险"(风险区)和"实际风险"区域的领域,并预测未来恶化的可能性。基于对这些指标的GIS分析、编制风险地图将有助于确定这些地区的优先次序以启动补救措施。通过定义九个指标严重程度等级的阈值,首先在GIS中制备了每个指标的风险地图。风险等级是根据风险评分确定的,通过给指标分配适当的属性,风险图是在GIS中通过叠加9个风险地图来综合生成的,结果发现实际风险区域在该流域范围内(78%)广泛存在。     

Influence of condensation and latent heat release upon barotropic and baroclinic instabilities of vortices in a rotating shallow water f-plane model

Analysis of the influence of condensation and related latent heat release upon developing barotropic and baroclinic instabilities of large-scale low Rossby-number shielded vortices on the f-plane is performed within the moist-convective rotating shallow water model, in its barotropic (one-layer) and baroclinic (two-layer) versions. Numerical simulations with a high-resolution well-balanced finite-volume code, using a relaxation parameterisation for condensation, are made. Evolution of the instability in four different environments, with humidity (i) behaving as passive scalar, (ii) subject to condensation beyond a saturation threshold, (iii) subject to condensation and evaporation, with three different parameterisations of the latter, are inter-compared. The simulations are initialised with unstable modes determined from the detailed linear stability analysis in the “dry” version of the model. In a configuration corresponding to low-level mid-latitude atmospheric vortices, it is shown that the known scenario of evolution of barotropically unstable vortices, consisting in formation of a pair of dipoles (dipolar breakdown) is substantially modified by condensation and related moist convection, especially in the presence of surface evaporation. No enhancement of the instability due to precipitation was detected in this case. Cyclone-anticyclone asymmetry with respect to sensitivity to the moist effects is evidenced. It is shown that inertia-gravity wave emission during the vortex evolution is enhanced by the moist effects. In the baroclinic configuration corresponding to idealised cut-off lows in the atmosphere, it is shown that the azimuthal structure of the leading unstable mode is sensitive to the details of stratification. Scenarios of evolution are completely different for different azimuthal structures, one leading to dipolar breaking, and another to tripole formation. The effects of moisture considerably enhance the perturbations in the lower layer, especially in the tripole formation scenario.     

Temporal distribution of earthquakes using renewal process in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region

Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M _w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major (M _w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M _w > 6 in the near future is significantly high.     

Factors associated with unnecessary requests for an ambulance by non-traumatic patients after the acute earthquake responding phase: a qualitative content analysis

The pre-hospital emergency staff played a key role in transferring the injured patients to health centers. Usually, they reported changes in their decisions on the transfer of non-traumatic patients to hospitals. So, this study was aimed to explore the reasons for unnecessarily requesting an ambulance by non-traumatic patients after the acute responding-to-earthquake phase. This study was a qualitative study that data were analyzed by content analysis approach. Participants were eleven pre-hospital emergency technicians. Data were collected by three sessions of focus group discussion. Data analysis was led to emergence of a main theme: “feeling urgency due to turmoil and uncertainty.” This theme illustrates the basic approach of the inhabitants of the earthquake-stricken region when unnecessarily requesting an ambulance. This theme was derived from two main categories of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” and “psychological turmoil.” The category of “turbulent and uncertain conditions” was comprised of three subcategories: “unreliable care,” “inadequate facilities” and “turbulent living conditions.” The category of “psychological turmoil” was comprised of three subcategories: “psychological turmoil in survivors,” “healthcare providers deciding under pressure” and “turmoil in providing psychological and psychiatric services.” Ambulance dispatch may be unnecessarily performed owing to turbulent and unsure conditions and psychological turmoil in earthquake-stricken people and pre-hospital emergency staff. Providing earthquake-stricken people with psycho-medical services in their place of residence can significantly reduce the workload of pre-hospital emergency staff and consequently that of hospital staff and therefore save time and treatment costs and increase the quality of health services provided for the injured.