Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO₂ direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO₂ direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO₂ direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.     

Characterization of the amorphous state in metamict silicates and niobates by EXAFS and XANES analyses

X-ray absorption spectroscopy using synchrotron radiation has been applied to the investigation of the coordination geometries around Y, Zr and Nb atoms in metamict zircon, gadolinite, fergusonite, euxenite and samarskite. EXAFS and XANES spectra of their crystalline counterparts and synthetic compounds including ZrO₂, Y₂O₃, YNbTiO₆, YNbO₄, LiNbO₃, and NiNb₂O₆ were also measured for comparison. Metamict zircon shows a significant decrease in its Zr-O bond distances accompanying an increase in distortion of the Zr-O coordination polyhedra as compared with crystalline zircon. On the contrary, the average Nb-O bond distances and the symmetry of the coordination polyhedra around the Nb atoms in metamict euxenite and samarskite resemble those in the crystalline euxenite. Compared with crystalline fergusonite, a decrease in the distortion of the Nb-O octahedra is observed in metamict fergusonite. The structures of the second nearest neighbors (the metal-metal interactions) are largely disrupted in the metamict specimens except for metamict zircon and samarskite with high trivalent iron concentration. Nb in metamict samarskite is in octahedral coordination by oxygen and is similar to that in euxenite.     

Magnetism and mineralogy of Almahata Sitta polymict ureilite (= asteroid 2008 TC3): Implications for the ureilite parent body magnetic field

Abstract– The Almahata Sitta meteorite is the first case of recovered extraterrestrial material originating from an asteroid that was detected in near Earth space shortly before entering and exploding in the high atmosphere. The aims of our project within the 2008 TC₃ consortium were investigating Almahata Sitta’s (AS) magnetic signature, phase composition and mineralogy, focussing on the opaque minerals, and gaining new insights into the magnetism of the ureilite parent body (UPB). We report on the general magnetic properties and behavior of Almahata Sitta and try to place the results in context with the existing data set on ureilites and ureilite parent body models. The magnetic signature of AS is dominated by a set of low‐Ni kamacites with large grain sizes. Additional contributions come from micron‐sized kamacites, suessite, (Cr) troilite, and daubreelite, mainly found in the olivine grains adjacent to carbon‐rich veins. Our results show that the paleomagnetic signal is of extraterrestrial origin as can be seen by comparing with laboratory produced magnetic records (IRM). Four types of kamacite (I–IV) have been recognized in the sample. The elemental composition of the ureilite vein metal Kamacite I (particularly Co) clearly differs from the other kamacites (II‐IV), which are considered to be indigenous. Element ratios of kamacite I indicate that it was introduced into the UPB by an impactor, supporting the conclusions of Gabriel and Pack (2009) .     

Probabilistic evaluation of climate change impacts on paddy rice productivity in Japan

Projecting the impacts of climate change includes various uncertainties from physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic processes. Providing a more comprehensive impact projection that better represents the uncertainties is a priority research issue. We used an ensemble-based projection approach that accounts for the uncertainties in climate projections associated with general circulation models (GCMs) and biophysical and empirical parameter values in a crop model. We applied the approach to address the paddy rice yield change in Japan in the 2050s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2081–2100) relative to the 1990s (1981–2000). Seventeen climate projections, nine (eight) climate projections performed by seven (six) GCMs conditional on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B (A2), were included in this projection. In addition, 50 sets of biophysical and empirical parameter values of a large-scale process-based crop model for irrigated paddy rice were included to represent the uncertainties of crop parameter values. The planting windows, cultivation practices, and crop cultivars in the future were assumed to be the same as the level in the baseline period (1990s). The resulting probability density functions conditioned on SRES A1B and A2 indicate projected median yield changes of +?17.2% and +?26.9% in Hokkaido, the northern part of Japan, in the 2050s and 2090s with 90% probability intervals of (??5.2%, +?40.3%) and (+?6.3%, +?51.2%), relative to the 1990s mean yield, respectively. The corresponding values in Aichi, on the Pacific side of Western Japan, are 2.2% and ??0.8%, with 90% probability intervals of (??15.0%, +?14.9%) and (??33.4%, +?17.9%), respectively. We also provided geographical maps of the probability that the future 20-year mean yield will decrease and that the future standard deviation of yield for 20 years will increase. Finally, we investigated the relative contributions of the climate projection and crop parameter values to the uncertainty in projecting yield change in the 2090s. The choice of GCM yielded a relatively larger spread of projected yield changes than that of the other factors. The choice of crop parameter values could be more important than that of GCM in a specific prefecture.     

Evaluation of intrinsic vulnerability to nitrate contamination of groundwater: appropriate fertilizer application management

In agricultural areas, fertilizer application is the main source of nitrate contamination of groundwater. To develop fertilizer management strategies to combat this problem, arable land in Hokkaido, Japan was evaluated using geographic information system techniques for intrinsic groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination. The DRASTIC method was modified to adapt it to the Hokkaido environment and used for the evaluation. Of the seven original DRASTIC factors, the depth to water (D), net recharge (R), soil media (S), topography (T), and impact of vadose zone media (I) were selected and used to explain the vertical movement of contaminants to the aquifer. The rating for the net recharge factor was also modified to a dilution factor for contaminants, rather than as a transporter. The frequency of wells with nitrate concentrations exceeding the Japanese environmental standard (10 mg/L) was reasonably explained by vulnerability evaluation results (GLM: logit-link, quasi-binomial distribution, Y = [1 + exp(6.873765 − 0.045988 × X)]⁻¹, p < 0.001). However, in the paddy fields and pastures, vulnerability did not exhibit a clear relationship with the frequency of wells exceeding the standard. This suggests that the modified DRASTIC method is applicable for fertilizer application management in upland fields. In addition, under the ongoing policy for acreage allotment for rice production, this method will be useful for deciding the arrangement of arable land and crop rotation taking into consideration the potential risk of fertilizer-induced nitrate contamination of groundwater.     

Radiation drag driven mass accretion in a clumpy interstellar medium: implications for the supermassive black hole-to-bulge relation

We quantitatively scrutinize the effects of the radiation drag arising from the radiation fields in a galactic bulge in order to examine the possibility that the radiation drag could be an effective mechanism to extract angular momentum in a spheroidal system like a bulge and allow plenty of gas to accrete on to the galactic centre. For this purpose, we numerically solve the relativistic radiation hydrodynamical equation coupled with accurate radiative transfer, and quantitatively assess the radiation drag efficiency. As a result, we find that in an optically thick regime the radiation drag efficiency is sensitively dependent on the density distributions of the interstellar medium (ISM). The efficiency drops according to     in an optically thick uniform ISM, where τ _T is the total optical depth of the dusty ISM , whereas the efficiency remains almost constant at a high level if the ISM is clumpy . Hence, if bulge formation begins with a star formation event in a clumpy ISM, the radiation drag will effectively work to remove the angular momentum and the accreted gas may form a supermassive black hole. As a natural consequence, this mechanism reproduces a putative linear relation between the mass of a supermassive black hole and the mass of a galactic bulge, although further detailed modelling for stellar evolution is required for a more precise prediction.     

Analysis of long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin

To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radio imaging of the Subaru/XMM–Newton Deep Field – I. The 100-μJy catalogue, optical identifications, and the nature of the faint radio source population

We describe deep radio imaging at 1.4 GHz of the 1.3-deg² Subaru/ XMM–Newton Deep Field (SXDF), made with the Very Large Array in B and C configurations. We present a radio map of the entire field, and a catalogue of 505 sources covering 0.8 deg² to a peak flux density limit of 100 μJy. Robust optical identifications are provided for 90 per cent of the sources, and suggested identifications are presented for all but 14 (of which seven are optically blank, and seven are close to bright contaminating objects). We show that the optical properties of the radio sources do not change with flux density, suggesting that active galactic nuclei (AGN) continue to contribute significantly at faint flux densities. We test this assertion by cross-correlating our radio catalogue with the X-ray source catalogue and conclude that radio-quiet AGN become a significant population at flux densities below 300 μJy, and may dominate the population responsible for the flattening of the radio source counts if a significant fraction of them are Compton-thick.     

HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY IN JAPAN*

A regret frequently expressed at International Geographical Congresses concerns the lack of summary information about the nature of geographic research in the host country. During a discussion of this point with members of the Association of Japanese Geographers, the idea of publishing a series of reports on various aspects of Japanese research surfaced. The concept was later enthusiastically supported by the United States National Committee for the International Geographical Union. This first report, “Historical Geography in Japan,” has been modified for the benefit of the English-speaking readers of THE PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER. Although the reports will be of particular interest to those planning to attend the 1980 IGC in Tokyo, they should prove of general interest as well.—H. Jesse Walker, Member, U.S. National Committee, IGU.