Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

The role of sticky interstellar organic material in the formation of asteroids

Abstract— Collision experiments and measurements of viscoelastic properties were performed involving an interstellar organic material analogue to investigate the growth of organic grains in the protosolar nebula. The organic material was found to be stickiest at a radius of between 2.3 and 3.0 AU, with a maximum sticking velocity of 5 m s^?1 for millimeter‐size organic grains. This stickiness is considered to have resulted in the very rapid coagulation of organic grain aggregates and subsequent formation of planetesimals in the early stage of the turbulent accretion disk. The planetesimals formed in this region appear to be represent achondrite parent bodies. In contrast, the formation of planetesimals at <2.1 and >3.0 AU begins with the establishment of a passive disk because silicate and ice grains are not as sticky as organic grains.     

Particular solutions to the problem of vertical flow of water and air through porous media near a water table

Particular solutions to the problem of vertical flow of water and air through homogeneous porous media are derived and the regularity properties of the solutions are presented. It is found that under certain conditions a singularity occurs in the solutions at the water table, though it is not certain whether or not a singularity always occurs. Effects of air flow on water flow are discussed.     

Determination of Zirconium, Niobium, Hafnium and Tantalum at ng g-1 Levels in Geological Materials by Direct Nebulisation of Sample HF Solution into FI-ICP-MS

We have developed a rapid and accurate method to determine Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta (denoted as HFSE) in geological samples by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry fitted with a flow injection system (FI-ICP-MS). The method involves sample decomposition by HF followed by HF dissolution of HFSE coprecipitated with insoluble M and Ca fluoride residues formed during the initial HF attack. This HF solution was directly nebulized into an ICP mass spectrometer. An external calibration curve method and an isotope dilution method (ID) were applied for the determination of Nb and Ta, and of Zr and Hf, respectively. Recovery yields of HFSE were > 96% for peridotite, basalt and andesite compositions, apart from Zr and Hf for peridotite (> 85%). No matrix effects for either signal intensities of HFSE or isotope ratios of Zr and Hf were observed in basalt, andesite and peridotite solutions down to a dilution factor of 100. Detection limits in silicate rocks were 40, 2, 1 and 0.1 ng g-1 for Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta, respectively. This technique required only 0.1 ml of sample solution, and thus is suitable for analysing small and/or precious samples such as meteorites, mantle peridotites and their mineral separates. We also present newly determined data for the Zr, Nb, Hf and Ta concentrations in USGS silicate reference materials DTS-1, PCC-1, BCR-1, BHVO-1 and AGV-1, GSJ reference materials JB-1, -2, -3, JA-1, -2 and -3, and the Smithsonian reference Allende powder.     

Development of a 2-km resolution ocean model covering the coastal seas around Japan for operational application

Ocean Dynamics - In order to expand the coastal ocean monitoring and forecasting system of the Japan Meteorological Agency from the Seto Inland Sea to the entire coastal seas of Japan, a 2-km...     

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modelling of bentonite buffer material

Mechanistic model development and numerical analyses were carried out on coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical processes in bentonite-based buffer material for the geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste with small-scale laboratory experiments and a full-scale test. The mechanism of water movement in compacted bentonite was identified by applying theoretical equations to the experimental results. The application clearly explained the observed results of the temperature dependence of the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated state and the water diffusivity in the unsaturated state for the compacted bentonite and the dry density dependence of the diffusivity. The full-scale coupled test, BIG-BEN, was conducted at PNC (Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation) Tokai Works. The results of the numerical analyses for the full-scale test which are based on the present knowledge of coupled processes and our small-scale experiments were in good agreement with the measured results except for mechanical phenomena. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time on-line test for MDOF systems

This paper presents a test system for conducting on-line tests in a real time and a series of real-time on-line tests conducted to verify the effectiveness of the system. The proposed system is characterized by (1) use of a Digital Signal Processor (DSP) now readily available, (2) adoption of the C language to ensure easy programming, and (3) separation of response analysis and displacement signal generation to apply the system for tests with complex structures. To create displacement signals successively without being interrupted by the computation of equations of motion, extrapolation and interpolation procedures using present and past target displacements are developed. Base-isolated building models were chosen for the real-time on-line test. The effectiveness of the extrapolation and interpolation procedures was demonstrated through a series of real-time on-line tests applied to the models treated as SDOF structures. A five-storey base-isolated building model (treated as a six DOF structure) was tested for various ground motions, and it was verified that the system is able to simulate earthquake responses involving large displacements and large velocities. The number of DOFs that can be handled in the proposed system was investigated, and it was found that the system is capable of performing the test with reasonable accuracy for up to 10 DOF structures with a range of response frequency not greater than 3·0 Hz, or 12 DOF structures with a range of response frequency not greater than 2·0 Hz. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term change and variation of salinity in the western North Pacific subtropical gyre revealed by 50-year long observations along 137°E

The 137°E repeat hydrographic section for 50 winters during 1967–2016 has been analyzed to examine interannual to interdecadal variations and long-term changes of salinity and temperature in the surface and intermediate layers of the western North Pacific, with a particular focus on freshening in the subtropical gyre. Rapid freshening on both isobars and isopycnals began in the mid-1990s and persisted for the last 20 years in the upper main thermocline/halocline in the western subtropical gyre. In addition, significant decadal variability of salinity existed in the subtropical mode water (STMW), as previously reported for the shallower layers. An analysis of the 144°E repeat hydrographic section during 1984–2013 supplemented by Argo profiling float data in 2014 and 2015 revealed that the freshening trend and decadal variability observed at 137°E originated in the winter mixed layer in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region and was transmitted southwestward to 137°E 1–2 years later in association with the subduction and advection of STMW. The mechanism of these changes and variations in the source region was further investigated. In addition to the surface freshwater flux in the KE region pointed out by previous studies, the decadal KE variability in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation likely contributes to the decadal salinity variability through water exchange between the subtropics and the subarctic across the KE. Interdecadal change in both the surface freshwater flux and the KE state, however, failed to explain the rapid freshening for the last 20 years.     

Earthquake engineering research needs in light of lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Earthquake engineering research and development have received much attention since the first half of the twentieth century. This valuable research presented a huge step forward in understanding earthquake hazard mitigation, which resulted in appreciable reduction of the effects of past earthquakes. Nevertheless, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami resulted in major damage. This paper presents the timeline of earthquake mitigation and recovery, as seen by the authors. Possible research directions where the authors think that many open questions still remain are identified. These are primarily based on the important lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.     

Long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan

This study investigates the long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan. Sensitivity experiments using a data-assimilative model suggest that the duration of the large meander (LM) strongly depends on the Kuroshio transport; specifically, low transport leads to a long duration of the LM. Actually, we find a good correlation between the duration of the past LMs and the Sverdrup transport estimated by a wind-driven linear baroclinic vorticity model. Then we explore favorable conditions for the LM and find a close relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE) state and the LM. That is, a precondition for the LM that the Kuroshio path on the Izu Ridge is fixed at a deep channel located around 34°N is achieved during a stable KE state. In addition, westward propagating signals with negative anomalies in the Kuroshio region and high sea-surface height (SSH) state east of Taiwan are key for generation of a small meander southeast of Kyushu that triggers a subsequent LM. The signals related to the above conditions change the upstream Kuroshio transport and velocity, which are consistent with features indicated by the former observational studies. Using reanalysis data, we construct long-time series of indices for the three conditions, which explain well the past LMs. The indices suggest that long-term non-LM states around 1970 and in the 1990s were attributed to a low-SSH state east of Taiwan and an unstable KE state, respectively.