Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.     

Comparison of Fry strain ellipse and AMS ellipsoid trends to tectonic fabric trends in very low-strain sandstone of the Appalachian fold–thrust belt

In moderately to highly strained sandstones, both the long axis of the bedding-parallel finite-strain ellipse, as calculated by the normalized Fry method, and the projection of the long axis of the AMS ellipsoid on the plane of bedding, align well with local “structural grain” (trends of cleavage, folds, and faults). This relationship implies that results of both 2D Fry and AMS analyses represent the local layer-parallel tectonic strain component. Do both methods provide comparable results for very low-strain sandstone (e.g., <5%)? To address this question, Fry and AMS analyses were conducted in very low-strain sandstone from two localities in the Appalachian foreland fold–thrust belt: near Rosendale in New York and the Lackawanna synclinorium of Pennsylvania. We compared the map projections of both bedding-parallel Fry ellipses and AMS ellipsoids to the local structural grain. In both study areas, projections of the long axis of Fry strain ellipses do not cluster in a direction parallel to structural grain, whereas the projection of the long axes of AMS ellipsoids do cluster closely to structural grain. This observation implies that in very low-strain sandstone, AMS analysis provides a more sensitive “quick” indicator of tectonic fabric than does normalized Fry analysis.     

A mineral magnetic and scaled-chrysophyte paleolimnological study of two northeastern Pennsylvania lakes: records of fly ash deposition, land-use change, and paleorainfall variation

A combined mineral magnetic and scaled chrysophyte study of lake sediments from Lake Lacawac and Lake Giles in northeastern Pennsylvania was conducted to determine the effects of land-use and sediment source changes on the variation of pH, conductivity, and alkalinity inferred from biotic changes. Ten 30–40 cm long gravity cores were collected from Lake Lacawac and three from Lake Giles. Isothermal remanent magnetizations (IRMs) were given to the lake sediments in a 1.3 T magnetic field to measure magnetic mineral concentration variations. IRM acquisition experiments were conducted to identify magnetic mineralogy. The bedrock, soils and a peat bog on the shores of Lake Lacawac were also sampled for magnetic analysis to determine possible lake sediment sources. The top 10 cm of sediment collected from Lakes Lacawac and Giles was two to four times more magnetic than deeper sediment. ²¹⁰Pb dating suggests that this intensity increase commenced circa 1900. SEM images of magnetic extracts from the highly magnetic sediments indicates the presence of magnetic fly ash microspheres from fossil fuel burning electric power generation plants. The similarity in magnetic coercivity in the top 8 cm lake sediments and in the peat bog supports an atmospheric source for some of the magnetic minerals in the youngest lake sediments. The highly magnetic sediments also contain an antiferromagnetic mineral in two cores closest to Lake Lacawacs southeastern shore. This magnetic mineral is only present deep in the soil profile and would suggest erosion and significant land-use changes in the Lacawac watershed as another cause for the high magnetic intensities (concentrations) in the top 10 cm of the lake sediments. The most significant changes in the scaled chrysophyte flora occurred immediately above the 10 cm level and were used to infer a doubling of the specific conductivity between circa 1910 and 1929. These variations also support land-use changes in the Lacawac catchment at this time. A similar shift in the scaled chrysophte flora was not observed in the top of Lake Giles, however, distinct changes were found in the deeper sections of the core coupled with a smaller peak in magnetic concentration. Fourier analysis of the ²¹⁰Pb-dated lake sediment magnetics indicates the presence of a 50 year period, low amplitude variation in the Lake Lacawac, Lake Giles, and Lake Waynewood (Lott et al., 1994) magnetic concentration records. After removal of the land-use/fly ash magnetic concentration peak by Gaussian filtering, the 50 year variation correlates strongly from lake to lake even though the lakes are in different watersheds separated by up to 30 km. When this magnetic variation is compared with Gaussian-filtered rainfall variations observed in New York City and Philadelphia over the past 120–250 years there is a strong correlation suggesting that magnetic concentration variations can record regional rainfall variations with an approximately 50 year period. This result indicates that magnetics could be used to document regional variations in climatic change.     

Finite‐element analysis of laminated rubber bearing of building frame under seismic excitation

Finite element analysis is carried out for a building frame supported by laminated rubber bearings to simultaneously investigate global displacement and local stress responses under seismic excitation. The frame members and the rubber bearings are discretized into hexahedral solid elements with more than 3 million degrees of freedom. The material property of rubber is represented by the Ogden model, and the frame is assumed to remain in elastic range. It is shown that the time histories of non‐uniform stress distribution and rocking behavior of the rubber bearings under a frame subjected to seismic excitation can be successfully evaluated, and detailed responses of base and frame can be evaluated through large‐scale finite element analysis. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disturbance of recruitment success of mantis shrimp in Tokyo Bay associated with effects of hypoxia on the early life history

We investigated effects of severe hypoxia (dissolved oxygen <1 ml l⁻¹) on recruitment of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in Tokyo Bay. Ten-year field surveys were conducted to examine quantitative relationships in annual mean densities of larvae and juveniles, and spatial distribution of juveniles and severe hypoxia. There was no significant correlation between annual mean densities of larvae and juveniles, suggesting that mortality during larval or juvenile stages varies among years, which might have regulated abundance of young-of-the-year juveniles. Juvenile density was low in the severely hypoxic area, implying that hypoxia could affect survivals and spatial distribution of juveniles. Meanwhile, there are yearly fluctuations in juvenile density in normoxic areas of both northern and southern part of the bay. This evidence suggests that abundance of post-settled juveniles might have been determined by not only effects of hypoxia, but also other factors influencing mortality during the early life stages.     

Temperature measurements of electrostatic shocks in?laser-produced counter-streaming plasmas

Collisionless shocks in counter-streaming plasmas, created by the high-power laser system Gekko XII HIPER, are investigated. The shock structure and density are measured by optical diagnostics such as shadowgraphy, interferometry, and streaked interferometry. The plasma density and temperature are estimated from self-emission measurements with visible light by streaked optical pyrometer and gated optical imager. Brightness temperatures are calculated considering the efficiency of the detectors, and electron temperatures are estimated.     

Nonlinear behavior of high-damping rubber bearings under horizontal bidirectional loading: full-scale tests and analytical modeling

Horizontal bidirectional loading tests are conducted for real-sized high-damping rubber (HDR) bearings with diameters of 700 mm (HDR700) and 1300 mm (HDR1300). The hysteresis loops of these bearings under bidirectional horizontal loadings are compared with those under unidirectional loadings. The results show that the bearing force measurement in the primary direction of loading increases when there is displacement in the orthogonal direction. Unusually, the maximum restoring force in the orthogonal direction to the primary loading direction occurs near zero displacement. On the basis of the observations of the restoring forces, a rate-independent model is proposed. This model simulates well the test results under both bidirectional loading and unidirectional loading. It can reproduce the irregular restoring forces characteristics around zero displacement as described above. Bidirectional loading induced twist deformation in the HDR bearings that increased local shear strains. This phenomenon results in an early failure as observed in HDR700. The additional shear strain is estimated based on the twist deformation measured by video image analysis. The comparison of the nominal total shear stress demonstrates that the increase of shear stress because of bidirectional loading occurs when the average shear strain is larger than about 200%. The larger the shear strain, the greater the bidirectional effect. It is shown that the nominal total shear stress of average strain of 350% under bidirectional circular loading pattern is approximately the same as the average shear strain of 400% under unidirectional loading. This means that the average shear strain of 350% under a bidirectional circular loading corresponds to a local shear strain of 400%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.