Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.     

Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951–2010

Climate Dynamics - Since the early twentieth century, observations have shown that the ocean surface has warmed almost globally, but the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) rise in the Kuroshio...     

Zonation of Sulfate and Sulfide Minerals and Isotopic Composition in the Far Southeast Porphyry and Lepanto Epithermal Cu–Au Deposits,Philippines

The world‐class Far Southeast (FSE) porphyry system, Philippines, includes the FSE Cu–Au porphyry deposit, the Lepanto Cu–Au high‐sulfidation deposit and the Victoria–Teresa Au–Ag intermediate‐sulfidation veins, centered on the intrusive complex of dioritic composition. The Lepanto and FSE deposits are genetically related and both share an evolution characterized by early stage 1 alteration (deep FSE potassic, shallow Lepanto advanced argillic‐silicic, both at ~1.4 Ma), followed by stage 2 phyllic alteration (at ~1.3 Ma); the dominant ore mineral deposition within the FSE porphyry and the Lepanto epithermal deposits occurred during stage 2. We determined the chemical and S isotopic composition of sulfate and sulfide minerals from Lepanto, including stage 1 alunite (12 to 28 permil), aluminum–phosphate–sulfate (APS) minerals (14 to 21 permil) and pyrite (?4 to 2 permil), stage 2 sulfides (mainly enargite–luzonite and some pyrite, ?10 to ?1 permil), and late stage 2 sulfates (barite and anhydrite, 21 to 27 permil). The minerals from FSE include stage 2 chalcopyrite (1.6 to 2.6 permil), pyrite (1.1 to 3.4 permil) and anhydrite (13 to 25 permil). The whole‐rock S isotopic composition of weakly altered syn‐mineral intrusions is 2.0 permil. Stage 1 quartz–alunite–pyrite of the Lepanto lithocap, above about 650 m elevation, formed from acidic condensates of magmatic vapor at the same time as hypersaline liquid formed potassic alteration (biotite) near sea level. The S isotopic composition of stage 1 alunite–pyrite record temperatures of approximately 300–400°C for the vapor condensate directly over the porphyry deposit; this cooled to <250°C as the acidic condensate flowed to the NW along the Lepanto fault where it cut the unconformity at the top of the basement. Stage 1 alunite at the base of the advanced argillic lithocap over FSE contains cores of APS minerals with Sr, Ba and Ca; based on back‐scattered electron images and ion microprobe data, these APS minerals show a large degree of chemical and S‐isotopic heterogeneity within and between samples. The variation in S isotopic values in these finely banded stage 1 alunite and APS minerals (16 permil range), as well as that of pyrite (6 permil range) was due largely to changes in temperature, and perhaps variation in redox conditions (average ~ 2:1 H₂S:SO₄). Such fluctuations could have been related to fluid pulses caused by injection of mafic melt into the diorite magma chamber, supported by mafic xenoliths hosted in diorite of an earlier intrusion. The S isotopic values of stage 2 minerals indicate temperatures as high as 400°C near sea level in the porphyry deposit, associated with a relatively reduced fluid (~10:1 H₂S:SO₄) responsible for deposition of chalcopyrite. Stage 2 fluids were relatively oxidized in the Lepanto lithocap, with an H₂S:SO₄ ratio of about 4. The oxidation resulted from cooling, which was caused by boiling during ascent and then dilution with steam‐heated meteoric water in the lithocap. This cooling also resulted in the sulfidation state of minerals increasing from chalcopyrite stability in the porphyry deposit to that of enargite in the lithocap‐hosted high‐sulfidation deposit. The temperature at the base of the lithocap during stage 2 was ≥300°C, cooling to <250°C within the main lithocap, and about 200°C towards the limit of the Lepanto orebody, approximately 2 km NW of the porphyry deposit. Approximate 300°C and 200°C isotherms, estimated from S isotopic and fluid inclusion temperatures during stage 1 and stage 2, shifted towards the core of the FSE porphyry deposit with time. This general retreat in isotherms was more than 500 m laterally within Lepanto and 500 m vertically within FSE as the magmatic–hydrothermal system evolved and collapsed over the magmatic center. During this evolution, there is also evidence recorded by large S isotopic variations in individual crystals for sharp pulses of higher temperature, relatively reduced fluid injected into the porphyry deposit.     

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.     

Variations in Chemical Composition of Clay Minerals and Magnetic Susceptibility of Hydrothermally Altered Rocks in the Hishikari Epithermal Gold Deposit, SW Kyushu, Japan

Hydrothermal alteration, involving chiefly chlorite and illite, is extensively distributed within host rocks of the Pleistocene Hishikari Lower Andesites (HLA) and the Cretaceous Shimanto Supergroup (SSG) in the underground mining area of the Hishikari epithermal gold deposit, Kagoshima, Japan. Approximately 60% of the mineable auriferous quartz‐adularia veins in the Honko vein system occur in sedimentary rocks of the SSG, whereas all the veins of the Yamada vein system occur in volcanic rocks of the HLA. Variations in the abundance and chemical composition of hydrothermal minerals and magnetic susceptibility of the hydrothermally altered rocks of the HLA and SSG were analyzed. In volcanic rocks of the HLA, hydrothermal minerals such as quartz, chlorite, adularia, illite, and pyrite replaced primary minerals. The amount of hydrothermal minerals in the volcanic rocks including chlorite, adularia, illite, and pyrite as well as the altered and/or replaced pyroxenes and plagioclase phenocrysts increases toward the veins in the Honko vein system. The vein‐centered variation in mineral assemblage is pronounced within up to 25 m from the veins in the peripheral area of the Honko vein system, whereas it is not as apparent in the Yamada vein system. The hydrothermal minerals in sandstone of the SSG occur mainly as seams less than a few millimeters thick and are sporadically observed in halos along the veins and/or the seams. The alteration halos in sandstone of the SSG are restricted to within 1 m of the veins. In the peripheral area of the Honko vein system, chlorite in volcanic rocks is characterized by increasing in Al in its tetrahedral layer and the Fe/Fe + Mg ratio toward the veins, while illite in volcanic rocks has relatively low K and a restricted range of Fe/Fe + Mg ratios. Temperature estimates derived from chlorite geothermometry rise toward the veins within the volcanic rocks. The magnetic susceptibility of tuff breccia of the HLA varies from 21 to less than 0.01 × 10^?3 SI within a span of 40 m from the veins and has significant variation relative to that of andesite (27–0.06 × 10^?3 SI). The variation peripheral to the Honko vein system correlates with an increase in the abundance of hematite pseudomorphs after magnetite, the percentage of adularia and chlorite with high Fe/Fe + Mg ratios, and the degree of plagioclase alteration with decreasing distance to the veins. In contrast, sedimentary rocks of the SSG maintain a consistent magnetic susceptibility across the alteration zone, within a narrow range from 0.3 to 0.2 × 10^?3 SI. Magnetic susceptibility of volcanic rocks of the HLA, especially tuff breccia, could serve as an effective exploration tool for identifying altered volcanic rocks.     

REE Mineralization of Weathered Crust and Clay Sediment on Granitic Rocks in the Sanyo Belt,SW Japan and the Southern Jiangxi Province,China

Rare earth element (REE) geochemistry and mineralogy have been studied in the weathered crusts derived from the Early Yanshanian (Jurassic) biotite granites of Dabu and Dingnan, as well as in the Indosinian (Permian) muscovite–biotite granite of Aigao in southern Jiangxi province, China, and the weathered crusts and clay sediments on biotite granites in the Sanyo belt, SW Japan, that is, Okayama, Tanakami, and Naegi areas. In all of the weathered crusts, biotite and plagioclase commonly tend to decrease toward the upper part of the profile, whereas kaolinite and residual quartz and K‐feldspar increase. The weathered crusts of the Dingnan granites and some Naegi granites, which are characterized by the enrichment in light REE (LREE) in C horizons, have higher total REE (ΣREE) content than the parent REE‐enriched granites. Weathering of LREE‐bearing apatite and fluorocarbonates in the Dingnan granites and allanite and apatite in some Naegi granites may account for the leaching of LREE at the B horizons. The leached LREE must result in subsequent enrichment of LREE in the C horizons. The enrichment is probably associated with mainly adsorption onto kaolinite and partly formation of possible secondary LREE‐bearing minerals. In Japan it was found that REE mineralization occurs not in the weathered granitic crusts but in reworked clay sediments, especially kaolinite‐rich layers, derived mainly from the weathering materials of REE‐enriched granitic rocks. The clay sediments are more enriched in LREE, which likely adsorbed onto kaolinite. Concentration of heavy REE within almost all the weathered crusts and clay sediments, however, may reflect mainly residual REE‐bearing minerals such as zircon, which originated in the parent granitic rocks. The findings of the present study support the three processes for fractionation of the REE during weathering: (i) selective leaching of rocks containing both stable and unstable REE‐bearing minerals; (ii) adsorption onto clay minerals; and (iii) presence of possible secondary LREE‐bearing minerals.