Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface Zonal Flow

We study the solar-cycle variation of the zonal flow in the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm covering the period from mid-2001 to mid-2013 or from the maximum of Cycle 23 through the rising phase of Cycle 24. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis. The zonal flow varies with the solar cycle showing bands of faster-than-average flows equatorward of the mean latitude of activity and slower-than-average flows on the poleward side. The fast band of the zonal flow and the magnetic activity appear first in the northern hemisphere during the beginning of Cycle 24. The bands of fast zonal flow appear at mid-latitudes about three years in the southern and four years in the northern hemisphere before magnetic activity of Cycle 24 is present. This implies that the flow pattern is a direct precursor of magnetic activity. The solar-cycle variation of the zonal flow also has a poleward branch, which is visible as bands of faster-than-average zonal flow near 50° latitude. This band appears first in the southern hemisphere during the rising phase of the Cycle 24 and migrates slowly poleward. These results are in good agreement with corresponding results from global helioseismology.     

A Full-Sun Magnetic Index from Helioseismology Inferences

Solar magnetic indices are used to model the solar irradiance and ultimately to forecast it. However, the observation of such indices is generally limited to the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. Seismic maps of the far side of the Sun have proven their capability to locate and track medium–large active regions at the non-visible hemisphere. We present here the possibility of using the average signal from these seismic far-side maps, combined with similarly calculated near-side maps, as a proxy to the full-Sun magnetic activity.     

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.     

Sputtering and high altitude meteors

Conventional ablation theory assumes that a meteoroid undergoes intensive heating during atmospheric flight and surface atoms are liberated through thermal processes. Our research has indicated that physical sputtering could play a significant role in meteoroid mass loss. Using a 4th order Runge-Kutta numerical integration technique, we tabulated the mass loss due to the two ablation mechanisms and computed the fraction of total mass lost due to sputtering. We modeled cometary structure meteoroids with masses ranging from 10⁻¹³ to 10⁻³ kg and velocities ranging from 11.2 to 71 km s⁻¹. Our results indicate that a significant fraction of the mass loss for small, fast meteors is due to sputtering, particularly in the early portion of the light curve. In the past 6 years evidence has emerged for meteor luminosity at heights greater than can be explained by conventional ablation theory. We have applied our sputtering model and find excellent agreement with these observations, and therefore suggest that sputtered material accounts for the new type of radiation found at great heights.     

On the analysis of light curves in asteroseismology

We provide a detailed introduction to the main problems arising when analyzing light curves in asteroseismology. Attention is first paid to the signal model delivered by the pulsating stars and to the noise sources corrupting this model in photometric observations. The main pitfalls and ambiguities occurring in Fourier analysis are summarized and illustrated. Some classical, Least Squares (LS) based methods for spectrum analysis are analyzed and commented on from the point of view of ill-posed problems. The insight that can be gained from such analyses is discussed.     

The isolated non-circular ringlets of Saturn

We show that the combined effect of electrodynamic and gravitational forces can account for a number of features observed by Voyagers 1 and 2 in the isolated fine dust rings of Saturn. These include (a) the appearance and disappearnce of the braids in the F-ring, (b) the eccentricities of the F-ring and the ringlets within the Encke and Cassine divisions and a gap in the C-ring, and (c) the kinks in the eccentric Encke ring. They may also account for the very existence of these rings.