The practical use of simplicity in developing ground water models

The advantages of starting with simple models and building complexity slowly can be significant in the development of ground water models. In many circumstances, simpler models are characterized by fewer defined parameters and shorter execution times. In this work, the number of parameters is used as the primary measure of simplicity and complexity; the advantages of shorter execution times also are considered. The ideas are presented in the context of constructing ground water models but are applicable to many fields. Simplicity first is put in perspective as part of the entire modeling process using 14 guidelines for effective model calibration. It is noted that neither very simple nor very complex models generally produce the most accurate predictions and that determining the appropriate level of complexity is an ill-defined process. It is suggested that a thorough evaluation of observation errors is essential to model development. Finally, specific ways are discussed to design useful ground water models that have fewer parameters and shorter execution times.     

Assessment of Fish Assemblages Before Dredging of the Shipping Channel Near the Mouth of the Savannah River in Coastal Georgia

Evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities is dependent upon data collection prior to impact, though funds are rarely allocated to conduct an assessment before a critical need arises. The Savannah Harbor Expansion Project is one such activity that includes dredging of the Savannah River. It may potentially change physical conditions of the estuary thereby altering fish assemblages. The purpose of the present study was to characterize pre-impact fish assemblages along a salinity gradient near the mouth of the river and determine which abiotic factors most influence them. One site within the mouth of the Savannah River and two sites immediately outside the river mouth were sampled monthly for 2 years using both a beam trawl and seine net. Salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and sediment grain size were assessed. All four factors had a significant effect on fish assemblages. A total of 3943 fishes representing ≥55 species formed three statistically distinct fish assemblages and at least three seasonal assemblages. Only 24 species (43.6 %) were collected by both gear types indicating the importance of using multiple gear types to assess fish assemblages. We conclude that the fish assemblages near the mouth of the Savannah River may be altered or may shift given the predicted increase in salinity and/or the possible changes in sediment composition from channel dredging. Understanding the abiotic factors that most influence spatial and seasonal fish distributions prior to dredging will be invaluable in predicting how organisms will be impacted by similar public projects elsewhere.     

Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near surface disposal facility using the enhanced Monte Carlo method

In the present study, reliability analysis of near surface disposal facility is performed, by assessing the probability of sequential failure of the multi barrier system using the contaminant transport model. The concentration and dose rate of the radionuclide evolve with time hence there is a need for time dependent reliability analysis. Due to the low values of expected probabilities of failure, an enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method and Subset simulation is employed. The Result of the analysis show that, the EMC method is useful to evaluate the probability of failure associated with the barrier system which has low probability of failure.     

Moisture and heat budgets of the south American monsoon system: climatological aspects

The climatology of the moisture and heat budget equation terms for subareas within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958–2014 period considering the distinct phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These budget equations are applied to the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are equation residues, referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Analyses are done for the Central Amazon Basin (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) for three distinct periods, 1958–1976, 1977–1995, and 1996–2014, that correspond to the cold, warm, and undefined PDO phases. The differences among the PDO phases for each term are discussed. The CAM region acts dominantly as a moisture sink and heat source in all months during the three phases. On the other hand, in the WCB region, the monsoon characteristics are better defined, with a moisture sink (source) and a heat source (sink) during the wet (dry) season. The main result of the present analysis is the persistence of SAMS intensification signs in both CAM and WCB areas up to the last analyzed period (1996–2014), which is consistent with intense flooding in the Amazon Basin in 2008/2009, 2012, and 2014.     

东昆仑东段哈拉郭勒-哈图一带中生代的岩石隆升剥露--锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹年代学证据

根据对东昆仑地区东段哈拉郭勒—哈图一带不同高度基岩的系列锆石裂变径迹年龄分析，结合磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分析和中酸性侵入岩角闪石压力计分析揭示了东昆仑东段中生代的岩石隆升剥露冷却历史．巴隆哈图一带中酸性侵入岩角闪石压力计分析结果反映晚海西—印支期以来的总体剥露幅度约8～9km，早二叠世至晚三叠世初剥蚀作用极为缓慢，大约为20～40m／Ma．不同高程样品的锆石裂变径迹年龄分析结果揭示了东昆仑地区东段在中晚侏罗世处于缓慢的岩石隆升剥露阶段，其中中侏罗世相对较快，抬升速率77～88m／Ma，晚侏罗世相对较慢，抬升速率小于37m／Ma，且呈减慢趋势，这种减慢趋势反映了早中侏罗世之交强构造抬升期后的逐渐衰退．锆石裂变径迹—磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分析结果反映了中侏罗世以来的剥蚀速率一般不超过55m／Ma，岩石的剥蚀速率与岩石的抬升速率基本为同一量级，中侏罗世—白垩纪剥蚀作用与岩石抬升作用基本处于平衡状态。     

Differentiation of clay resources on a limestone plain: The analysis of clay utilization during the Maya Formative at K'axob Belize

Differentiating clay resources in a uniform limestone plain, such as occurs in northern Belize, offers special challenges for the archaeologist. Combining data from soil mapping with petrographic and neutron activation analysis provides a mechanism for distinguishing possible resource areas. This study employed each of these differing avenues of analysis to determine possible clay resource areas used during the Maya Formative in northern Belize Central America. The results indicate that clay usage changed significantly from the Middle Formative period to the end of Late Formative period. These changes suggest a move to increased localized production and resource exploitation by the end of the period. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Cave bears and paleolithic artifacts in Yarimburgaz Cave,Turkey: Dissecting a palimpsest

This article addresses the taphonomic issues surrounding artifact-bear associations in Yarimburgaz Cave, northwestern Turkey. Our purpose is to evaluate the circumstances of bone assemblage formation in the Middle Pleistocene deposits of the cave, identifying the agencies responsible for the accumulations and the causes of bone damage before and following deposition. Pleistocene species representation, bone damage, body part representation, and mortality data indicate that cave bear remains in Yarimburgaz are unrelated to hominid use of the same site. None of the observations on the cave bear remains contradicts the expectations developed from modern wildlife accounts of modern bear behavior; these accumulations resulted from mortality normally associated with hibernation over many generations of den use. Nonursid carnivores also played roles in bone collection and/or modification. We conclude that at least three distinct biological processes contributed to the formation of the Middle Pleistocene faunas: hibernating bears, bone-collecting carnivores such as wolves, and hominids in descending order of importance. The Yarimburgaz faunas represent palimpsests or overlays of many short-term depositional events, the close spatial associations of which are explained by slow or uneven sedimentation rates inside the cave. Although occupations by hominids appear to have been ephemeral in nature, hominids ultimately discarded nearly 1700 stone artifacts in Yarimburgaz Cave. The hominids did not discard many ungulate bones in the same circumstances. These observations suggest that hominid foraging efforts focused on resources other than large game while at the cave. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.