Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10–30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10–30 day timescales.     

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5 °C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

Variations in the atmospheric electric field and Meteorological parameters at a Tropical coastal urban station during 1936–40 and 1962–66

Summary The seasonal and diurnal variations in the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field, air temperature, relative humidity and horizontal wind speed were studied using the surface data for the two periods (1936–40) and (1962–66) recorded at the tropical urban station, Colaba, Bombay (18°51N, 72°49E, 11 m ASL), located on the west coast of India.The atmospheric electric field during the latter period (1962–66) is significantly higher (up to 42.3%) than the earlier period (1936–40). This has been attributed to the enhanced particulate concentrations in the atmosphere. The increase noticed in the atmospheric electric field is a maximum during winter and minimum during the monsoon. The atmospheric electric field exhibited a marked semi-diurnal oscillation with peaks at 0900 LST and 2200 LST during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon seasons of both the periods. During the monsoon season the double oscillation is not marked.The variations noticed in the surface air temperature and the relative humidity are in agreement with those observed in the atmospheric electric field. The horizontal wind speed showed a decrease which has been attributed to the surface roughness resulting from urbanization.With 7 Figures     

Heat as a ground water tracer

Heat carried by ground water serves as a tracer to identify surface water infiltration, flow through fractures, and flow patterns in ground water basins. Temperature measurements can be analyzed for recharge and discharge rates, the effects of surface warming, interchange with surface water, hydraulic conductivity of streambed sediments, and basin-scale permeability. Temperature data are also used in formal solutions of the inverse problem to estimate ground water flow and hydraulic conductivity. The fundamentals of using heat as a ground water tracer were published in the 1960s, but recent work has significantly expanded the application to a variety of hydrogeological settings. In recent work, temperature is used to delineate flows in the hyporheic zone, estimate submarine ground water discharge and depth to the salt-water interface, and in parameter estimation with coupled ground water and heat-flow models. While short reviews of selected work on heat as a ground water tracer can be found in a number of research papers, there is no critical synthesis of the larger body of work found in the hydrogeological literature. The purpose of this review paper is to fill that void and to show that ground water temperature data and associated analytical tools are currently underused and have not yet realized their full potential.     

Seasonal and interannual patterns of distribution and diet of bluefish within a Middle Atlantic bight estuary in relation to abiotic and biotic factors

Seasonal and interannual patterns in the spatial distribution of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) within a Middle Atlantic Bight estuary were examined using multipanel gillnets fished biweekly at 14 fixeds stations in the Sandy Hook Bay-N avesink River estuary during May–November of 1998 and 1999. To characterize habitats along the estuarine gradient, we measured several abiotic and biotic variables concurrently with gillnet sampling. Juvenile (age-0 and age-1+) bluefish were captured regularly during both years along with large numbers of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), which were confirmed by diet analyses to be bluefish’s primary forage species. The date of initial appearance of age-0 bluefish and menhaden in the estuary varied between years and may have been related to interannual differences in seawater temperatures on the continental shelf during spring. Delayed estuarine arrival of prey fishes may have contributed to variability in bluefish diets between years. Within the estuary, bluefish spatial distribution were consistent across seasons and years: bluefish were most common in areas associated with high concentrations of suspended materials and the presence of menhaden. Community analyses also indicated habitat overlap between bluefish and menhaden. Spatial distribution patterns revealed the consistent occurrence of piscivorous bluefish in shallow estuarine habitats that retained suspended materials and aggregated prey fishes. Foraging success of bluefish and other estuarine piscivores may be closely linked with the availability of these productive habitat, highlighting the need for future study of biological interactions and the governing physical processes.