Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios

Identification of factors controlling sediment dynamics under natural flow regimes can establish a baseline for quantifying effects of present day hydrological alteration and future climate change on sediment delivery and associated flooding. The process-based INCA-Sediment model was used to simulate Ganga River sediment transport under baseline conditions and to quantify possible future changes using three contrasting climate scenarios. Construction of barrages and canals has significantly altered natural flow regimes, with profound consequences for sediment transport. Projected increases in future monsoonal precipitation will lead to higher peak flows, increasing flood frequency and greater water availability. Increased groundwater recharge during monsoon periods and greater rates of evaporation due to increased temperature complicate projections of water availability in non-monsoon periods. Rainfall and land surface interaction in high-relief areas drive uncertainties in Upper Ganga sediment loads. However, higher monsoonal peak flows will increase erosion and sediment delivery in western and lower reaches.     

Submarine sediment and landform record of a palaeo‐ice stream within the British−Irish Ice Sheet

This paper examines marine geophysical and geological data, and new multibeam bathymetry data to describe the Pleistocene sediment and landform record of a large ice‐stream system that drained ～3% of the entire British?Irish Ice Sheet at its maximum extent. Starting on the outer continental shelf NW of Scotland we describe: the ice‐stream terminus environment and depocentre on the outer shelf and continental slope; sediment architecture and subglacial landforms on the mid‐shelf and in a large marine embayment (the Minch); moraines and grounding line features on the inner shelf and in the fjordic zone. We identify new soft‐bed (sediment) and hard‐bed (bedrock) subglacial landform assemblages in the central and inner parts of the Minch that confirm the spatial distribution, coherence and trajectory of a grounded fast‐flowing ice‐sheet corridor. These include strongly streamlined bedrock forms and megagrooves indicating a high degree of ice‐bed coupling in a zone of flow convergence associated with ice‐stream onset; and a downstream bedform evolution (short drumlins to km‐scale glacial lineations) suggesting an ice‐flow velocity transition associated with a bed substrate and roughness change in the ice‐stream trunk. Chronology is still lacking for the timing of ice‐stream demise; however, the seismic stratigraphy, absence of moraines or grounding‐line features, and presence of well‐preserved subglacial bedforms and iceberg scours, combined with the landward deepening bathymetry, all suggest that frontal retreat in the Minch was probably rapid, via widespread calving, before stabilization in the nearshore zone. Large moraine complexes recording a coherent, apparently long‐lived, ice‐sheet margin position only 5–15 km offshore strongly support this model. Reconstructed ice‐discharge values for the Minch ice stream (12–20 Gt a^?1) are comparable to high mass‐flux ice streams today, underlining it as an excellent palaeo‐analogue for recent rapid change at the margins of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets.     

Features of faults in the central and northern Tibetan plateau based on results of INDEPTH (III)-MT

The features of the faults in the central and northern Tibetan plateau are discussed, based on two super-wide band magnetotelluric (MT) sounding profiles belonging to the INDEPTH (III)-MT project, which were finished between 1998 and 1999: one is from Deqing to Longweicuo (named line 500), the other is from Naqu to Golmud (line 600). This work assists research on the collision and subduction mode between the India and Asia plates. The MT results show that there is a series of deep faults, F1 to F10, in the central and northern Tibetan plateau. Of these faults, F2 is an earlier main fault which leans to the north, and F1 is a later main overriding fault. The Jiali deep fault zone, which has a very complex space structure, is composed of these two faults. F3, F4 and F5 are super-deep faults. They are high-angle faults and lean a little to the south. The main fault zone of the Bangong-Nujiang suture is composed of these three faults. Because of later activity in the structure, several shallow faults formed in the upper crust within the Bangong-Nujiang suture. The Tanggula fault zone is composed of two main faults, F6 and F7, and a series of sub-faults. The shallow segments of the main faults are in high angles and the deep segments of main faults are in low angles. These two faults generally lean to the south and extend into the lower crust. The Jinshajiang suture is composed of the Jinshajiang fault (F8) and the Kekexili fault (F9), and there is a series of sub-faults in the upper crust between these two faults. The Jinshajiang suture is a very wide suture caused by continent-continent collision. The Middle Kunlun fault (F10), which is the main structure of the Kunlun fault zone, is a high angle, super-deep fault. It is the north boundary of the Songpan-Ganzi-Kekexili block. Based on the conductive structure of the profile, the southern part of the Middle Kunlun fault belongs to the Tibetan plateau, but it is not certain whether the northern part of the Middle Kunlun fault belongs to the Tibetan plateau. There are conductive bodies stretching from the crust into the upper mantle below the Bangong-Nujiang suture and Jinshajiang suture. This may suggest heat exchange between the crust and mantle. Translated from Earth Science—Journal of China University of Geosciences, 2006, 31(2): 257–265 [译自: 地球科学—中国地质大学学报]     

Practical Use of Computationally Frugal Model Analysis Methods

Three challenges compromise the utility of mathematical models of groundwater and other environmental systems: (1) a dizzying array of model analysis methods and metrics make it difficult to compare evaluations of model adequacy, sensitivity, and uncertainty; (2) the high computational demands of many popular model analysis methods (requiring 1000's, 10,000 s, or more model runs) make them difficult to apply to complex models; and (3) many models are plagued by unrealistic nonlinearities arising from the numerical model formulation and implementation. This study proposes a strategy to address these challenges through a careful combination of model analysis and implementation methods. In this strategy, computationally frugal model analysis methods (often requiring a few dozen parallelizable model runs) play a major role, and computationally demanding methods are used for problems where (relatively) inexpensive diagnostics suggest the frugal methods are unreliable. We also argue in favor of detecting and, where possible, eliminating unrealistic model nonlinearities—this increases the realism of the model itself and facilitates the application of frugal methods. Literature examples are used to demonstrate the use of frugal methods and associated diagnostics. We suggest that the strategy proposed in this paper would allow the environmental sciences community to achieve greater transparency and falsifiability of environmental models, and obtain greater scientific insight from ongoing and future modeling efforts.     

Homochirality as the signature of life: the SETH Cigar

A characteristic hallmark of life is its homochirality: all biomolecules are usually of one hand, e.g. on Earth life uses only L-amino acids for protein synthesis and not their D mirror images. It is therefore suggested that a search for extra-terrestrial life can be approached as a Search for Extra-Terrestrial Homochirality (SETH). A novel miniaturized space polarimeter, called the SETH Cigar, is described which could he used to detect optical rotation as the homochiral signature of life on other planets. Moving parts are avoided by replacing the normal rotating polarizer by multiple fixed polarizers at different angles as in the eye of the bee. It is believed that homochirality will be found in the subsurface layers on Mars as a relic of extinct life.     

A search for shocked quartz grains in the Allerød‐Younger Dryas boundary layer

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis suggests that multiple airbursts or extraterrestrial impacts occurring at the end of the Allerød interstadial resulted in the Younger Dryas cold period. So far, no reproducible, diagnostic evidence has, however, been reported. Quartz grains containing planar deformation features (known as shocked quartz grains), are considered a reliable indicator for the occurrence of an extraterrestrial impact when found in a geological setting. Although alleged shocked quartz grains have been reported at a possible Allerød‐Younger Dryas boundary layer in Venezuela, the identification of shocked quartz in this layer is ambiguous. To test whether shocked quartz is indeed present in the proposed impact layer, we investigated the quartz fraction of multiple Allerød‐Younger Dryas boundary layers from Europe and North America, where proposed impact markers have been reported. Grains were analyzed using a combination of light and electron microscopy techniques. All samples contained a variable amount of quartz grains with (sub)planar microstructures, often tectonic deformation lamellae. A total of one quartz grain containing planar deformation features was found in our samples. This shocked quartz grain comes from the Usselo palaeosol at Geldrop Aalsterhut, the Netherlands. Scanning electron microscopy cathodoluminescence imaging and transmission electron microscopy imaging, however, show that the planar deformation features in this grain are healed and thus likely to be older than the Allerød‐Younger Dryas boundary. We suggest that this grain was possibly eroded from an older crater or distal ejecta layer and later redeposited in the European sandbelt. The single shocked quartz grain at this moment thus cannot be used to support the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis.     

Finite element computation of shape factors for Kirkham's piezometer tube method for hydraulic conductivity of saturated soil

The Kirkham piezometer tube method of measuring hydraulic conductivity of saturated soil uses a numerical constant (shape factor) to account for the relative geometrical parameters of the cavity and the soil domain. Published shape factors have mostly been determined using an electrical analogue. In this paper the application of the finite element method to shape factor determination is considered. Convergence is studied and methods of extrapolation evaluated. A determination is made of the size of finite region required to represent adequately the radially unbounded domain assumed for the piezometer method. Computed shape factors were found to be in good agreement with analogue data.     

How do hydrologic modeling decisions affect the portrayal of climate change impacts?

End users face a range of subjective decisions when evaluating climate change impacts on hydrology, but the importance of these decisions is rarely assessed. In this paper, we evaluate the implications of hydrologic modelling choices on projected changes in the annual water balance, monthly simulated processes, and signature measures (i.e. metrics that quantify characteristics of the hydrologic catchment response) under a future climate scenario. To this end, we compare hydrologic changes computed with four different model structures – whose parameters have been obtained using a common calibration strategy – with hydrologic changes computed with a single model structure and parameter sets from multiple options for different calibration decisions (objective function, local optima, and calibration forcing dataset). Results show that both model structure selection and the parameter estimation strategy affect the direction and magnitude of projected changes in the annual water balance, and that the relative effects of these decisions are basin dependent. The analysis of monthly changes illustrates that parameter estimation strategies can provide similar or larger uncertainties in simulations of some hydrologic processes when compared with uncertainties coming from model choice. We found that the relative effects of modelling decisions on projected changes in catchment behaviour depend on the signature measure analysed. Furthermore, parameter sets with similar performance, but located in different regions of the parameter space, provide very different projections for future catchment behaviour. More generally, the results obtained in this study prompt the need to incorporate parametric uncertainty in multi‐model frameworks to avoid an over‐confident portrayal of climate change impacts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.