Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

The Wave-Front Correction System for the Sunrise Balloon-Borne Solar Observatory

This paper describes the wave-front correction system developed for the Sunrise balloon telescope, and it provides information about its in-flight performance. For the correction of low-order aberrations, a Correlating Wave-Front Sensor (CWS) was used. It consisted of a six-element Shack??C?Hartmann wave-front sensor (WFS), a fast tip-tilt mirror for the compensation of image motion, and an active telescope secondary mirror for focus correction. The CWS delivered a stabilized image with a precision of 0.04?arcsec (rms), whenever the coarse pointing was better than ???45?arcsec peak-to-peak. The automatic focus adjustment maintained a focus stability of 0.01?waves in the focal plane of the CWS. During the 5.5?day flight, good image quality and stability were achieved during 33?hours, containing 45?sequences, which lasted between 10 and 45?min.     

Topographic predictors of susceptibility to alluvial fan flooding,Southern Apennines

The flooding susceptibility of alluvial fans in the Southern Apennines has long been neglected. To partly address this oversight, we focus on the region of Campania which contains highly urbanized piedmont areas particularly vulnerable to flooding. Our findings are based on stratigraphic analysis of the fans and morphometric analysis of the basin‐fan systems. Using geomorphological analysis we recognized active alluvial fans while stratigraphic analysis together with statistical analysis of the morphometric variables was used to classify the fans in terms of the transport process involved. The results indicate that in the geological context examined, the best discrimination between debris flow (Df) and water flood (Wf) processes is achieved by means of two related variables, one for the basin (feeder channel inclination, Cg) and one for the fan (fan length, Fl). The probability that an unclassified fan belongs to group Wf is computed by applying a logistic function in which a P value exceeding 0.5 indicates that a basin/fan system belongs to group Wf. This important result led to the classification of the entire basin/fan system data. As regards process intensity, debris flow‐dominated fans are susceptible to the occurrence of flows with high viscosity and hence subject to more severe events than water flood‐dominated fans. Bearing this in mind, the data gathered in this study allow us to detect where alluvial fan flooding might occur and give information on the different degrees of susceptibility at a regional scale. Regrettably, urban development in recent decades has failed to take the presence of such alluvial fans into account due to the long recurrence time (50–100 years) between floods. This paper outlines the distribution of such susceptibility scenarios throughout the region, thereby constituting an initial step to implementing alluvial fan flooding control and mitigation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scale-dependent correlations between soil heavy metals and As around four coal-fired power plants of northern Greece

We analyse the concentration of five trace elements (As, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the topsoil of the Kozani-Ptolemais basin where four coal-fired power plants run to provide almost 47.8 % of electricity requirements in Greece. We assume that if the power plants have altered the spatial (co)variation of the analysed elements through their toxic by-products, their effect would be observable only on a small spatial scale, since deposition of airborne pollutants is more evident if it is near the emission source. We used Factorial Cokriging to estimate the small-scale correlations among soil elements and to compare them to large spatial-scale correlations. Soil samples were collected from 92 sites. Given the low concentrations in soil heavy metals and As, we observed no serious soil contamination risk. We estimated correlations among the analysed elements on two spatial scales. On the larger scale, Ni and As exhibited higher correlation and received higher weights for the first regionalized factor, contrary to Cu, Pb and Zn which weighted more for the second regionalized factor. On the small spatial scale As associated with neither Ni nor other heavy metals. We conclude that soil arsenic has been altered by enrichment caused by some power plants through fly ash deposition and/or disposal. However, enrichment of soil elements was detectable only on the smaller spatial scale because anthropogenic inputs in soil through airborne emissions and subsequent deposition are evident only in the vicinity of the emission source.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.