Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Image-aided platform orientation determination with a GNSS/low-cost IMU system using robust-adaptive Kalman filter

The availability of miniaturized sensors with enhanced capabilities, new methods for image processing, and easy access to small and low-weight airborne platforms for data acquisition, including unmanned vehicles, opens new possibilities for geodetic navigation applications and developing new developments in sensor fusion. In this context, the development of efficient methods, based on low-cost sensors, to extract precise georeferenced information from digital cameras is of utmost interest. We present a method to improve the performance of the integration of GNSS/low-cost IMU by exploiting the orientation changes retrieved from digital images. In this work, a robust-adaptive Kalman filter is also introduced to further improve the performance of the method deployed. The adaptive factor and the robust factor accomplished are determined by innovation information and the threshold value of orientation changes between consecutive images. Results from airborne tests used to assess the performance of the method are presented. The results show that using a non-metric camera, the Euler angle estimation accuracy of the GNSS/low-cost IMU integration can be improved to be close to 0.5 degree and an additional improvement, which can reach 59%, can be achieved after using the robust-adaptive Kalman filter.     

The Effect of Key Parameters on the Strength of a Dispersive Soil Stabilized with Sustainable Binders

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Dispersive soils are susceptible to phenomena of internal and external erosion when in contact with relatively pure water due to its particle’s...     

The Colider and Roosevelt Volcanic rocks (sw amazonian craton): geochemistry and sm-nd isotope characteristics of a silicic large igneous province

The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial ε_Nd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.

     

Single-particle crushing strength under different relative humidity conditions

This paper presents a fundamental study on the effect of the relative humidity on the rockfill crushing strength. This aspect plays an important role in the mechanical behaviour of rockfill, and it is known that certain characteristics of the granular materials, such as compressibility and shear strength, depend on the confining stress, which is a function of the particles crushing. An increased interest has been observed regarding the effect of the relative humidity in the mechanical behaviour of rockfill. Unfortunately, limited research has been conducted until now regarding the study of individual particle crushing. Therefore, this paper thoroughly investigated particle crushing, by performing single-particle crushing tests on rockfill particles divided into four size ranges, under different relative humidity conditions. The experimental results reveal a considerable influence of the relative humidity in the studied rockfill particles, whose strength of the particles with the greatest dimensions in saturated conditions was reduced by half. Consistent macro-mechanical evidence demonstrates that particle’s size and relative humidity conditions depict the most important factors that influence particle crushing strength.

     

Modelling size effect on rock aggregates strength using a DEM bonded-cell model

Empirical evidence has shown that particle breakage affects the mechanical behaviour of granular materials. The source of this mechanism takes place at the particle scale, and the main consequence on the macromechanical behaviour is increasing compressibility. Due to the inverse correlation between particle size and particle crushing strength, coarse rockfill materials are particularly vulnerable to mechanical degradation due to particle breakage. However, such coarse materials do not fit in standard laboratory devices, and the alternative of large sample testing is usually unavailable or too expensive. Alternatively, recent works have proposed multi-scale approaches using the discrete element method (DEM) to carry out numerical testing of coarse crushable materials, although few studies have focused on size effects. This article presents the application of a DEM bonded-cell model to study particle size-strength correlation on angular rock aggregates. Each particle is modelled by a cluster of perfectly rigid polyhedral cells with Mohr–Coulomb contact law. Constant cell density within particles implies that the presence of potential fragmentation planes increases with size. Therefore, particle strength decreases with size. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was carried out through 1477 particle crushing simulations in a given particle size. Based on published experimental data on calcareous rock aggregates, part of the simulations were used for calibration, and 97 additional simulations of a coarser size fraction were performed for validation. The results show a good agreement with the empirical data in terms of size effect and data scatter through Weibull statistics.

     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

Habitat continuity effects on gradients of fish biomass across marine protected area boundaries

Marine protected areas (MPAs) could be useful as fisheries management tools for the exportation of pelagic eggs, larvae and adult fish. A decreasing gradient of fish biomass across MPAs boundary may indicate export. We determine whether gradients of decreasing biomass of fish assemblage occurred in Tabarca Marine Reserve over two habitats with different continuity across the boundaries, to test if the patchy nature of the marine environment might act as a barrier for the fish export. In general, significant decreasing gradients in total fish biomass and biomass of some species were observed on P. oceanica and rocky substrates, independently of their different continuity through the reserve boundaries. Changes in the multivariate structure of the fish assemblage were correlated with the distance from integral reserve. All of these results support the hypothesis that the exportation of adult fish from Tabarca Marine Reserve occurs, and this process may influence the surrounding fished areas.     

Biochemical alterations in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc: glutathione reductase as a target

The aim of this study was to investigate biochemical changes in juvenile carp (Cyprinus carpio) exposed to zinc chloride (10, 30 and 100 microM) for a period of 48 h. Zinc exposure caused a concentration-dependent reduction in glutathione reductase (GR) activity in gills, liver and brain. Gill glutathione S-transferase (GST) was reduced when animals were exposed to the highest concentration of 100 microM zinc. The phosphorylation of p38(MAPK) increased in the brain of fish exposed to zinc 100 microM, while phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase 1/2 (ERK1/2) and c-Jun N-terminal protein kinase 1/2 (JNK1/2) remained unchanged. Expression of proteins HSP60 and HSP70 were not affected by zinc exposure. Considering the significant concentration-dependent inhibition of GR in all tissues analyzed, this enzyme could be a potential biomarker of exposure to zinc, which has to be confirmed.