The State of Self-organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last Three Solar Cycles. I. Observations

We analyze the occurrence-frequency distributions of peak fluxes [P], total fluxes [E], and durations [T] of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980??C?2010) from SMM/HXRBS, CGRO/BATSE, and RHESSI hard X-ray data. From the synthesized data we find powerlaw slopes with mean values of ?? _P =1.73±0.07 for the peak flux, ?? _E =1.62±0.12 for the total flux, and ?? _T =1.99±0.35 for flare durations. We find a tendency of an anti-correlation of the powerlaw slope of peak fluxes with the flare rate or sunspot number as a function of the solar cycle. The occurrence powerlaw slope is always steeper by ??????0.1 during a solar-cycle minimum compared with the previous solar-cycle maximum, but the relative amplitude varies for each cycle or instrument. Since each solar cycle has been observed with a different instrument, part of the variation could be attributed to instrumental characteristics and different event selection criteria used in generating the event catalogs. The relatively flatter powerlaw slopes during solar maxima could indicate more energetic flares with harder electron-energy spectra, probably due to a higher magnetic complexity of the solar corona. This would imply a non-stationarity (or solar-cycle dependence) of the coronal state of self-organized criticality.     

Cartography-Oriented Design of 3D Geospatial Information Visualization – Overview and Techniques

In economy, society and personal life map-based interactive geospatial visualization becomes a natural element of a growing number of applications and systems. The visualization of 3D geospatial information, however, raises the question how to represent the information in an effective way. Considerable research has been done in technology-driven directions in the fields of cartography and computer graphics (e.g., design principles, visualization techniques). Here, non-photorealistic rendering (NPR) represents a promising visualization category – situated between both fields – that offers a large number of degrees for the cartography-oriented visual design of complex 2D and 3D geospatial information for a given application context. Still today, however, specifications and techniques for mapping cartographic design principles to the state-of-the-art rendering pipeline of 3D computer graphics remain to be explored. This paper revisits cartographic design principles for 3D geospatial visualization and introduces an extended 3D semiotic model that complies with the general, interactive visualization pipeline. Based on this model, we propose NPR techniques to interactively synthesize cartographic renditions of basic feature types, such as terrain, water, and buildings. In particular, it includes a novel iconification concept to seamlessly interpolate between photorealistic and cartographic representations of 3D landmarks. Our work concludes with a discussion of open challenges in this field of research, including topics, such as user interaction and evaluation.     

Comparative analysis of nonparametric change-point detectors commonly used in hydrology

ABSTRACT

Several commonly-used nonparametric change-point detection methods are analysed in terms of power, ability and accuracy of the estimated change-point location. The analysis is performed with synthetic data for different sample sizes, two types of change and different magnitudes of change. The methods studied are the Pettitt method, a method based on the Cramér von Mises (CvM) two-sample test statistic and a variant of the CUSUM method. The methods differ considerably in behaviour. For all methods the spread of estimated change-point location increases significantly for points near one of the ends of the sample. Series of annual maximum runoff for four stations on the Yangtze River in China are used to examine the performance of the methods on real data. It was found that the CvM-based test gave the best results, but all three methods suffer from bias and low detection rates for change points near the ends of the series.     

Modification of climate signals by human activities recorded in varved sediments (AD 1608–1942) of Lake Holzmaar (Germany)

Paleolimnological data from varved sediments in Lake Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany) were combined with documentary data on human activities, long-term data from the Historical Climate Database (HISKLID) for Germany and with recent monitoring data to evaluate changes in deposition that arose from climatic and human influences. The sediment data included seasonal layer thickness in an established varve chronology (1608–1942 AD), subannual chemical element counts, and multiannual organic matter data (TOC, TN, δ¹³C_org), all combined on an annual scale. Indicators for detritus deposition (lithogenic element counts and detritus layers) determined the first principal component (PC1) of the sediment data. This detritus PC1 was compared to the first PCs of the seasonal precipitation and temperature from HISKLID. While no relation was found to precipitation, the correlation with the temperature PC1 determined by spring to fall temperatures was significant. From 1608 to 1870, a positive correlation of the PCs suggests an increase of detritus deposition in the lake center with increasing non-winter temperatures. These may be linked by lake-internal sediment redeposition that increases when the periods of winter stratification become shorter and that of lake circulation longer. The detritus deposition is modulated by external detritus input depending on the intensity of erosion-conducive land use (wood pasture, wood cutting, and rotational slash-and-burn cultivation). Detritus input diminished when land use slowed down with population decrease as the consequence of plague epidemics, warfare and emigration. After 1870, forest regeneration and improving agricultural practices led to a stabilization of the catchment. Erosion and detritus deposition decreased progressively. The negative correlation of detritus deposition with the gradually increasing temperature presumably mimics a cause-effect relation, although a link with decreasing freeze–thaw action is possible. The modernization of agriculture proceeded with manuring and fertilizing, which caused an increase of lake productivity as indicated by summer blooms of diatoms with enhanced nutrient demand, increased δ¹³C_org values and sulfur concentrations. Within this well established data base we found combinations of criteria that may be used to deduce natural climatic or anthropogenic influences. The quantitative attribution of these influences remains a challenging task in paleolimnology because their interaction makes the detection of linking mechanisms difficult even at high degree of detail and the processes themselves remain debatable.     

Identification of a karst system’s intrinsic hydrodynamic parameters: upscaling from single springs to the whole aquifer

For water management purposes, information about an entire aquifer system is generally more important than information about a specific spring. Since a karstic aquifer system might drain to several outlets, conclusions derived from a single spring can be misleading for characterization and modeling. In this study we apply a conceptual model to an Alpine dolomite karst system in Austria. The particular challenge was that several small springs with strongly varying hydrological behavior and diffuse flow into surrounding streams drain this system. Instead of applying the model to a single spring, it was calibrated simultaneously to several observations within the system aiming to identify the karst system’s intrinsic hydrodynamic parameters. Parameter identification is supported by modeling the transport of water isotopes (δ¹⁸O). The parameters were transferred to the whole system with a simple upscaling procedure and a sensitivity analysis was performed to unfold influence of isotopic information on parameter sensitivity and simulation uncertainty. The results show that it is possible to identify system intrinsic parameters. But the sensitivity analysis revealed that some are hardly identifiable. Only by considering uncertainty reasonable predictions can be provided for the whole system. Including isotopic information increases the sensitivity of some intrinsic parameters, but it goes along with a sensitivity decrease for others. However, a possible reduction of prediction uncertainty by isotopic information is compensated by deficiencies in the transport modeling routines.     

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall—lessons from the Mid-Miocene

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3–4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.     

Parameterization of wind turbine impacts on hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Monopile foundations of offshore wind turbines modify the hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local and regional scales. The aim of this work is to assess these modifications and to parameterize them in a regional model. In the present study, this is achieved through a regional circulation model, coupled with a sediment transport module, using two approaches. One approach is to explicitly model the monopiles in the mesh as dry cells, and the other is to parameterize them by adding a drag force term to the momentum and turbulence equations. Idealised cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France), where an offshore windfarm is under planning, to assess the capacity of the model to reproduce the effect of the monopile on the environment. Then, the model is applied to a real configuration on an area including the future offshore windfarm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches, and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed over a tidal cycle. In relation to local hydrodynamic effects, it is observed that currents increase at the side of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream of the monopile. In relation to sediment transport effect, the results show that resuspension and erosion occur around the monopile in locations where the current speed increases due to the monopile presence, and sediments deposit downstream where the bed shear stress is lower. During the tidal cycle, wakes downstream of the monopile reach the following monopile and modify the velocity magnitude and suspended sediment concentration patterns around the second monopile.     

Hydrogeomorphic processes and vegetation: disturbance,process histories,dependencies and interactions

Riparian vegetation and hydrogeomorphic processes are intimately connected parts of upland catchment and fan environments. Trees, shrubs and grasses and hydrogeomorphic processes interact and depend on each other in complex ways on the hillslopes, channels and cone‐shaped fans of torrential watersheds. While the presence and density of vegetation have a profound influence on hydrogeomorphic processes, the occurrence of the latter will also exert control on the presence, vitality, species, and age distribution of vegetation. This contribution aims at providing a review of foundational and more recent work on the dependencies and interactions between hydrogeomorphic processes and vegetation. In particular, we address the role of vegetation in the initiation of hydrogeomorphic processes and its impact on stream morphology as well as immediate and long‐term effects of hydrogeomorphic disturbance on vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The interactions between vegetation and erosion: new directions for research at the interface of ecology and geomorphology

Vegetation and processes of erosion and deposition are interactive. An objective of this paper is to review selected studies that emphasize the interdependencies. The reviews suggest new directions for research uniting ecology and geomorphology – the sub‐discipline of biogeomorphology. The research, which recently has become vigorous, includes the sources, movement, and fates of fluvial loads of sediment, organic carbon, nutrients, contaminants, and woody debris to low‐energy storage sites; the function of biota in causing soil evolution, stability, and sequestration of carbon; the development of new methods to characterize watersheds based on edaphic conditions; and the refinement of current empirical and conceptual models and dendrochronological techniques to measure landscape change. These well acknowledged topics and others less well anticipated ensure that biogeomorphology will remain vibrant. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the publish domain in the USA.