Diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios applied to urban flooding in the Chicago metropolitan area

Past heavy precipitation events in the Chicago metropolitan area have caused significant flood-related economic and environmental damages. A key component in flood management policies and actions is determining flood magnitudes for specified return periods. This is a particularly difficult task in areas with a complex and changing climate and land-use, such as the Chicago metropolitan area. The standard design storm methodology based on the NOAA Atlas 14 and ISWS Bulletin 70 has been used in the past to estimate flood hydrographs with variable return periods in this region. In a changing climate, however, these publications may not be accurate. This study presents and illustrates a methodology for diagnostic analysis of future climate scenarios in the framework of urban flooding, and assesses the corresponding uncertainties. First, the design storms are calculated using data downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) at 30-km spacing for the present and 2050s under the IPCC A1Fi (high) and B1 (low) emissions scenarios. Next, the corresponding flood discharges at six watersheds in suburban Chicago are estimated using a hydrologic event model. The resulting scenarios in flood frequency were first assessed through a set of diagnostic tests for precipitation timing and frequency. The study did not reveal any significant changes in the 2050s in the average timing of heavy storms, but their regularity decreased. The average timing did not exhibit any significant spatial variability throughout the region. The precipitation frequency analysis revealed distinct differences between the northern and southeastern subregions of the Chicago metropolitan area. The quantiles in the northern subregion averaged for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year return periods exhibited a 20% and 16% increase in daily precipitation for scenarios B1 and A1Fi, respectively. The southeastern subregion, however, exhibited a decrease of 12% for scenario B1 and a minor increase of 3% for scenario A1Fi. The hydrologic effects of changing precipitation on the flood quantiles were illustrated using six small watersheds in the region. The relative increases or decreases in precipitation translated into even larger relative increases or decreases in flood peaks, due to the nonlinear nature of the rainfall-runoff process. Simulations using multiple climate models, for longer periods, finer spatio-temporal resolution, and larger areal coverage could be used to more accurately account for numerous uncertainties in the precipitation and flood projections.     

Classification of CM chondrite breccias—Implications for the evaluation of samples from the OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa 2 missions

CM chondrites are complex impact (mostly regolith) breccias, in which lithic clasts show various degrees of aqueous alteration. Here, we investigated the degree of alteration of individual clasts within 19 different CM chondrites and CM‐like clasts in three achondrites by chemical analysis of the tochilinite‐cronstedtite‐intergrowths (TCIs; formerly named “poorly characterized phases”). To identify TCIs in various chondritic lithologies, we used backscattered electron (BSE) overview images of polished thin sections, after which appropriate samples underwent electron microprobe measurements. Thus, 75 lithic clasts were classified. In general, the excellent work and specific criteria of Rubin et al. (2007) were used and considered to classify CM breccias in a similar way as ordinary chondrite breccias (e.g., CM2.2‐2.7). In BSE images, TCIs in strongly altered fragments in CM chondrites (CM2.0‐CM2.2) appear dark grayish and show a low contrast to the surrounding material (typically clastic matrix), and can be distinguished from TCIs in moderately (CM2.4‐CM2.6) or less altered fragments (CM2.7‐CM2.9); the latter are bright and have high contrast to the surroundings. We found that an accurate subclassification can be obtained by considering only the “FeO”/SiO₂ ratio of the TCI chemistry. One could also consider the TCIs’ S/SiO₂ ratio and the metal abundance, but these were not used for classification due to several disadvantages. Most of the CM chondrites are finds that have suffered terrestrial weathering in hot and cold deserts. Thus, the observed abundance of metal is susceptible to weathering and may not be a reliable indicator of subtype classification. This study proposes an extended classification scheme based on Rubin’s scale from subtypes CM2.0‐CM2.9 that takes the brecciation into account and includes the minimum to maximum degree of alteration of individual clasts. The range of aqueous alteration in CM chondrites and small spatial scale of mixing of clasts with different alteration histories will be important for interpreting returned samples from the OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa 2 missions in the future.     

Exploring large wood retention and deposition in contrasting river morphologies linking numerical modelling and field observations

Large wood tends to be deposited in specific geomorphic units within rivers. Nevertheless, predicting the spatial distribution of wood deposits once wood enters a river is still difficult because of the inherent complexity of its dynamics. In addition, the lack of long‐term observations or monitored sites has usually resulted in a rather incomplete understanding of the main factors controlling wood deposition under natural conditions. In this study, the deposition of large wood was investigated in the Czarny Dunajec River, Polish Carpathians, by linking numerical modelling and field observations so as to identify the main factors influencing wood retention in rivers. Results show that wood retention capacity is higher in unmanaged multi‐thread channels than in channelized, single‐thread reaches. We also identify preferential sites for wood deposition based on the probability of deposition under different flood scenarios, and observe different deposition patterns depending on the geomorphic configuration of the study reach. In addition, results indicate that wood is not always deposited in the geomorphic units with the highest roughness, except for low‐magnitude floods. We conclude that wood deposition is controlled by flood magnitude and the elevation of flooded surfaces in relation to the low‐flow water surface. In that sense, the elevation at which wood is deposited in rivers will differ between floods of different magnitude. Therefore, together with the morphology, flood magnitude represents the most significant control on wood deposition in mountain rivers wider than the height of riparian trees. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The connection between Labrador Sea buoyancy loss, deep western boundary current strength, and Gulf Stream path in an ocean circulation model

The sensitivity of the North Atlantic gyre circulation to high latitude buoyancy forcing is explored in a global, non-eddy resolving ocean general circulation model. Increased buoyancy forcing strengthens the deep western boundary current, the northern recirculation gyre, and the North Atlantic Current, which leads to a more realistic Gulf Stream path. High latitude density fluxes and surface water mass transformation are strongly dependent on the choice of sea ice and salinity restoring boundary conditions. Coupling the ocean model to a prognostic sea ice model results in much greater buoyancy loss in the Labrador Sea compared to simulations in which the ocean is forced by prescribed sea ice boundary conditions. A comparison of bulk flux forced hindcast simulations which differ only in their sea ice and salinity restoring forcings reveals the effects of a mixed thermohaline boundary condition transport feedback whereby small, positive temperature and salinity anomalies in subpolar regions are amplified when the gyre spins up as a result of increased buoyancy loss and convection. The primary buoyancy flux effects of the sea ice which cause the simulations to diverge are ice melt, which is less physical in the diagnostic sea ice model, and insulation of the ocean, which is less physical with the prognostic sea ice model. Increased salinity restoring ensures a more realistic net winter buoyancy loss in the Labrador Sea, but it is found that improvements in the Gulf Stream simulation can only be achieved with the excessive buoyancy loss associated with weak salinity restoring.     

The Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 2016

<正>1.Overview The 2016 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium(QOS-2016)was held on 4–9 September 2016 in Edinburgh,UK.The Symposium was organized by the International Ozone Commission(IO3C),the NERC Centre for EcologyHydrology and the University of Edinburgh,and was co-sponsored by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric     

Tectono‐sedimentary evolution of lower to middle Miocene half‐graben basins related to an extensional detachment fault (western Crete,Greece)

Crustal extension in the overriding plate at the Aegean subduction zone, related to the rollback of the subducting African slab in the Miocene, resulted in a detachment fault separating high‐pressure/low‐temperature (HP‐LT) metamorphic lower from non‐metamorphic upper tectonic units on Crete. In western Crete, detachment faulting at deeper crustal levels was accompanied by structural disintegration of the hangingwall leading to the formation of half‐graben‐type sedimentary basins filled by alluvial fan and fan‐delta deposits. The coarse‐grained clastic sediments in these half‐grabens are exclusively derived from the non‐metamorphic units atop the detachment fault. Being in direct tectonic contact with HP‐LT metamorphic rocks of the lower tectonic units today, the basins must have formed in the period between c. 20 and 15 Ma, prior to the exposure of the HP‐LT metamorphic rocks at the surface, and juxtaposed with the latter during ongoing deformation.     

Numerical and Experimental Analysis of A Ducted Propeller Designed by A Fully Automated Optimization Process Under Open Water Condition

A fully automated optimization process is provided for the design of ducted propellers under open water conditions, including 3D geometry modeling, meshing, optimization algorithm and CFD analysis techniques. The developed process allows the direct integration of a RANSE solver in the design stage. A practical ducted propeller design case study is carried out for validation. Numerical simulations and open water tests are fulfilled and proved that the optimum ducted propeller improves hydrodynamic performance as predicted.