Diatoms as indicators of water quality in Western Mongolian lakes: a 54-site calibration set

Mongolia is an arid land with limited freshwater availability. Recent changes in climate as well as changes in livestock management in the post-Soviet era may threaten the quality and availability of these freshwater resources and emphasize the need to characterize current conditions relative to a long-term baseline. Because diatoms are responsive to changes in water chemistry and are commonly preserved in lake sediments, they can be used as indicators of both present and past water quality. To these ends, we have developed a diatom-based calibration set and quantitative inference models for the region. Physical and chemical factors and modern diatom communities were sampled at 54 sites in western Mongolia in the Altai and Khangai mountains and the Valley of the Great Lakes. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) demonstrated that both salinity and total phosphorus accounted for statistically significant fractions of the variation in 151 diatom taxa across the 54 sampled sites. Diatom-based inference models were developed with weighted averaging (WA) techniques and showed strong predictive capabilities and low prediction errors for salinity and total phosphorus. These models are now available to help identify and interpret historical and future disturbances to this sensitive and globally important eco-region.     

A 2000 year varve-based climate record from the central Brooks Range,Alaska

Varved minerogenic sediments from glacial-fed Blue Lake, northern Alaska, are used to investigate late Holocene climate variability. Varve-thickness measurements track summer temperature recorded at Atigun Pass, located 41 km east at a similar elevation (r ² = 0.31, P = 0.08). Results indicate that climate in the Brooks Range from 10 to 730 AD (varve year) was warm with precipitation inferred to be higher than during the twentieth century. The varve-temperature relationship for this period was likely compromised and not used in our temperature reconstruction because the glacier was greatly reduced, or absent, exposing sub-glacial sediments to erosion from enhanced precipitation. Varve-inferred summer temperatures and precipitation decreased after 730 AD, averaging 0.4°C above the last millennial average (LMA = 4.2°C) from 730 to 850 AD, and 0.1°C above the LMA from 850 to 980 AD. Cooling culminated between 980 and 1030 AD with temperatures 0.7°C below the LMA. Varve-inferred summer temperatures increased between 1030 and 1620 AD to the LMA, though the period between 1260 and 1350 AD was 0.2°C below the LMA. Although there is no equivalent to the European Medieval Warm Period in the Blue Lake record, two warm intervals occurred from 1350 to 1450 AD and 1500 to 1620 AD (0.4 and 0.3°C above the LMA, respectively). During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1620 to 1880 AD), inferred summer temperature averaged 0.2°C below the LMA. After 1880 AD, inferred summer temperature increased to 0.8°C above the LMA, glaciers retreated, but aridity persisted based on a number of regional paleoclimate records. Despite warming and glacial retreat, varve thicknesses have not achieved pre-730 AD levels. This reflects limited sediment availability and transport due to a less extensive retreat compared to the first millennium, and continued relative aridity. Overall, the Blue Lake record is similar to varve records from the eastern Canadian Arctic that document a cool LIA and twentieth century warming. However, the occurrence and timing of events, such as the LIA and Medieval Warm Period, varies considerably among records, suggesting heterogeneous climatic patterns across the North American Arctic.

Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas: A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevada

Accurate and realistic characterizations of flood hazards on desert piedmonts and playas are increasingly important given the rapid urbanization of arid regions. Flood behavior in arid fluvial systems differs greatly from that of the perennial rivers upon which most conventional flood hazard assessment methods are based. Additionally, hazard assessments may vary widely between studies or even contradict other maps. This study's chief objective was to compare and evaluate landscape interpretation and hazard assessment between types of maps depicting assessments of flood risk in Ivanpah Valley, NV, as a case study. As a secondary goal, we explain likely causes of discrepancy between data sets to ameliorate confusion for map users. Four maps, including three different flood hazard assessments of Ivanpah Valley, NV, were compared: (i) a regulatory map prepared by FEMA, (ii) a soil survey map prepared by NRCS, (iii) a surficial geologic map, and (iv) a flood hazard map derived from the surficial geologic map, both of which were prepared by NBMG. GIS comparisons revealed that only 3.4% (33.9 km²) of Ivanpah Valley was found to lie within a FEMA floodplain, while the geologic flood hazard map indicated that ~ 44% of Ivanpah Valley runs some risk of flooding (Fig. 2D). Due to differences in mapping methodology and scale, NRCS data could not be quantitatively compared, and other comparisons were complicated by differences in flood hazard class criteria and terminology between maps. Owing to its scale and scope of attribute data, the surficial geologic map provides the most useful information on flood hazards for land-use planning. This research has implications for future soil geomorphic mapping and flood risk mitigation on desert piedmonts and playas. The Ivanpah Valley study area also includes the location of a planned new international airport, thus this study has immediate implications for urban development and land-use planning near Las Vegas, NV.     

From paleo to policy: partitioning the historical point and nonpoint phosphorus loads to the St. Croix River,Minnesota-Wisconsin,USA

Paleolimnological studies show that phosphorus (P) loads to the federally protected St. Croix River, a tributary of the Upper Mississippi River, have increased about threefold over the last century. Ongoing management efforts to protect and restore the river hinge on the question of whether the increased nutrient load results from point-source discharges or nonpoint runoff from agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Here we determine the historical contribution of point source phosphorus (P) loads to the St. Croix watershed from 1900–2000 A.D. Historical point source loads were estimated based on discharge volumes, demographics, industrial sources, wastewater technologies, and facility discharge records, where available. Sewering in the basin began in 1905, and since that time, there have been as many as 169 permitted point source dischargers basinwide, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural facilities. Early wastewater management typically discharged untreated sewage; technological advances had secondary treatment in place at most facilities by the 1960s–1970s and much of the municipal population was served by tertiary treatment by the 1990s. Peak nutrient discharges from point sources occurred in the 1960s–1970s. Detergent phosphorus bans instituted in the late 1970s for Minnesota and Wisconsin, greater use of land and groundwater effluent disposal, and improvements in treatment technology brought about decreases in P loads in the 1980s and 1990s. Point-source discharges were compared to historical total phosphorus loads estimated in a whole-basin phosphorus mass balance to calculate the historical contribution of point sources, anthropogenic nonpoint sources, and natural or background sources. We estimated 1990s point source loads at 48 t P yr⁻¹, which represents about 10% of the total phosphorus load (459 t P yr⁻¹, flow-corrected to 412 t P yr⁻¹) to the basin. Without further controls on nutrient inputs to the St. Croix River, annual flow-corrected P loads are projected to increase to 498 t P yr⁻¹ by the 2020s with point source phosphorus loading contributions at 65 t P yr⁻¹ or 13% of the total load. However, if we exclude background P loads to the St. Croix (166 t P yr⁻¹), recent nutrient loads are primarily from anthropogenic nonpoint sources. Point sources also contribute over 19% of the current and future phosphorus load that can be attributed to human activities in the watershed. Interstate and federal efforts to decrease P loading to the St. Croix River by 20% will need to target both point and nonpoint sources. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

Merging eruption datasets: building an integrated Holocene eruptive record for Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.     

Random vibration analysis of long-span structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions

On the basis of the pseudo-excitation method (PEM), a random vibration methodology is formulated for the seismic analysis of multi-supported structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The ground motion spatial variability consists of the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects. Advantages of this method are that less computation effort is required and that the cross-correlations both between normal modes and between excitations are automatically included. Random seismic responses of a realistic long-span bridge due to the wave passage, incoherence and site–response effects are extensively investigated. It is shown that all these effects have significant influence on the seismic response of the structure.     

Lattice-Boltzmann simulations of the capillary pressure–saturation–interfacial area relationship for porous media

Hysteresis in the relationship between capillary pressure (P_c), wetting phase saturation (S_w) and nonwetting–wetting interfacial area per volume (a_nw) is investigated using multiphase lattice-Boltzmann simulations of drainage and imbibition in a glass bead porous system. In order to validate the simulations, the P_c–S_w and a_nw–S_w main hysteresis loops were compared to experimental data reported by Culligan et al. [Culligan KA, Wildenschild D, Christensen BS, Gray WG, Rivers ML, Tompson AB. Interfacial area measurements for unsaturated flow through porous media. Water Resour Res 2004;40:W12413]. In general, the comparison shows that the simulations are reliable and capture the important physical processes in the experimental system. P_c–S_w curves, a_nw–S_w curves and phase distributions (within the pores) show good agreement during drainage, but less satisfactory agreement during imbibition. Drainage and imbibition scanning curves were simulated in order to construct P_c–S_w–a_nw surfaces. The root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) between drainage and imbibition surfaces was 0.10 mm⁻¹ and 0.03 mm⁻¹, respectively. This small difference indicates that hysteresis is virtually nonexistent in the P_c–S_w–a_nw relationship for the multiphase system studied here. Additionally, a surface was fit to the main loop (excluding scanning curves) of the drainage and imbibition P_c–S_w–a_nw data and compared to the surface fit to all of the data. The differences between these two surfaces were small (RMSE = 0.05 mm⁻¹ and MAE = 0.01 mm⁻¹) indicating that the P_c–S_w–a_nw surface is adequately represented without the need for the scanning curve data, which greatly reduces the amount of data required to construct the non-hysteretic P_c–S_w–a_nw surface for this data.     

Data reporting norms for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

Data reported in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology studies are commonly insufficient to allow computation of ages. This deficiency renders it difficult to compare ages based on different standards or constants, and often hinders critical evaluation of the results. Herein are presented an enumeration of the data that should be reported in all ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies, including a discussion in support of these requirements. The minimum required data are identified and distinguished from parameters that are useful but may be derived from them by calculation. Finally, recommendations are made for metadata needed to document age calculations (e.g., from age spectrum or isochron analyses).     

Comparison of nitrate attenuation characterization methods at the Uranium mill tailing site in Monument Valley, Arizona

Several methods for characterizing the occurrence and rate of nitrate attenuation were tested at a field site near Monument Valley, Arizona. Spatial and temporal nitrate concentration data collected from a transect of monitoring wells located along the plume centerline were analyzed to evaluate the overall rates of natural attenuation. The occurrence and rate of denitrification was evaluated through microcosm experiments, nitrogen isotopic fractionation analysis, and solute-transport modeling. First-order denitrification-rate coefficients calculated with each method were comparable. In addition, the composite natural attenuation rate coefficient was similar to the denitrification-rate coefficients, which suggests that microbially induced decay primarily controls nitrate attenuation at the site. This research highlights the benefits associated with a multiple-method approach for the characterization of natural attenuation.