Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah

The paper deals with the study of the physical and dynamical characteristics of a severe thunderstorm, which had occurred on April 5, 2015, at about 2100 UTC in the southwestern Bangladesh with location around 23.3–23.7N and 89.0–89.4E within the upazilas (sub-districts) of Kumarkhali and Shailkupa under the districts of Kushtia and Jhenaidah, respectively. The thunderstorm was associated with numerous hails of large size. More than 5000 birds which used to live in the bird sanctuary at Shailkupa and 22,011 birds in Chhaglapara Bird Sanctuary of Kumarkhali died as they were hit by the hails. Large hails also damaged crops, houses and forests over the thunderstorm hit areas. The evolution of the thunderstorm is studied by the WRF model, which is initialized using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final reanalysis data of 0000 UTC of April 5, 2015. The simulated results provide a basis to study the physical and dynamical characteristics of the thunderstorm, which are generally not identified by the meteorological observations which are too sparse. The model has captured a micro-low over Kumarkhali and its neighborhood, which favored the occurrence of the severe thunderstorm. The model simulated rainfall is about 26 mm near the place of occurrence, which matches well with the area where the reflectivity of hydrometeor is maximum. The convective available potential energy is found to be 1600 J kg^?1 at 1730 UTC near the place of occurrence of the thunderstorm; this indicates high atmospheric instability over the thunderstorm location for the formation of the thunderstorm. The vertical velocity, convergence, cloud water mixing ratio and the ice water mixing ratio and their vertical extensions are found to be satisfactory and responsible for the occurrence of large hails associated with the thunderstorm.     

Structure,Matter Composition,and Deep Structure of the Oceanic Slope of the Central Kuril Islands: New Evidence

The results of reinterpretation of the geophysical data obtained during the study of the central sector of the Kuril Island Arc (2005–2010) are reported. The new boundaries of the shallow bedding of the basement and its block uplifts of varied composition are defined within the previously discovered zone of tectonic stretching and destruction of the Vityaz submarine ridge and interarc trough. Interblock depressions filled with sedimentary and volcanogenic-sedimentary rocks are distinguished. Areas represented by volcanoplutonic complexes including basic and sialic series (up to granite) are distinguished within the unbroken basement of the Vityaz Ridge. Intrusions and volcanic edifices composed of basic rocks are registered on the whole area studied. The relationship between the formation of the destruction zone and the geodynamic processes in the mantle is illustrated by the map of the Moho relief and structural-density model of the Earth’s crust.     

Neue Ergebnisse zur Tektonik der Allgäuer und Vilser Alpen

Zusammenfassung Eine Neuuntersuchung der Tektonik in den Vilser Alpen und im Hochvogelgebiet, wo die Frage seit langer Zeit diskutiert wird, ob dort die Allgäu- und Lechtal-Decke getrennte Einheiten bilden, oder stratigraphisch untrennbar zusammenhängen, erbrachte eine eindeutige Entscheidung für den Deckenbau. Der Verlauf der Deckengrenze konnte zwischen Hochvogel und Hohenschwangauer Alpen präzisiert werden. Der interne Falten- und Schuppenbau der Lechtal-Decke hat nirgends zur Bildung von tektonisch tieferen Teildekken geführt, die internen Verschuppungen besitzen nur ein geringes Ausmaß.

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A new investigation of the tectonics in the Vilser Alps and in the Mt. Hochvogel area where since a long time a discussion was going on if the thrust sheets of Allgäu and Lechtal-Decke are separate units or connected by stratigraphic sequences, a definite decision could be made in favour of the nappe structure in this part of the Northern Calcareous Alps. The internal structure of the Lechtal-Decke thrust sheet is characterized by local imbricate structure which originate from sheared folds.

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Résumé On a dicuté depuis longtemps dans les Vilser Alpen et dans la région du Mont Hochvogel le problème, si les nappes de Allgäu et Lechtal-Decke sont des unités separées ou qu'ils forment une partie inséparable par des séquences stratigraphiques. Une nouvelle examen de la tectonique a affirmé la structure de nappes dans cette région des Alpes Calcaires du Nord. La structure intérieure de la nappe de Lechtal-Decke est caracterisée par une structure écaillée locale, qui se developpe de plis cisaillés.

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Surface Energy Exchanges during Pre-monsoon Thunderstorm Activity over a Tropical Station Kharagpur

In the present study an attempt has been made to understand the variation of surface energy fluxes such as net radiation, sensible, latent and soil heat during different epochs of thunderstorm activity at Kharagpur. The study also focuses in delineating the difference in the surface energy budget from the days of thunderstorm activity to fair weather days in the pre-monsoon months (April and May) which is locally known as thunderstorm season. For this purpose, experimental data obtained from the Severe Thunderstorms- Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme during pre-monsoon months of 2007, 2009 and 2010 at Kharagpur (22°30′N, 87°20′E), West Bengal, India are used. The present study reveals quick response, in the order of a few days, in the variations of transport of energy fluxes at soil-atmosphere interface to the upper atmosphere vis-à-vis to the occurrence of thunderstorm activity. Rise of surface sensible heat flux to the level of surface latent heat flux a day or two before the occurrence of a thunderstorm has been identified as a precursor signal for the thunderstorm occurrence over Kharagpur. Distinguishable differences are found in the partitioning of the surface energy fluxes to that of net radiation between thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The present study reveals more Bowen’s ratio during thunderstorm days to that of nonthunderstorm days. These results are useful in validating mesoscale model simulations of thunderstorm activity.     

Le Pico de Orizaba (Mexique): Structure et evolution d’un grand volcan andesitique complexe

Volcan Pico de Orizaba, which marks the eastern end of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is one of the largest andesitic composite volcanoes in America. It is located above a series of crustal distensive faults making the boundary of the Coast Plains of the Gulf of Mexico from theAltiplano. For this reason, the volcano shows an asymmetry: from the west, its elevation is about 3,000 m whereas on the eastern side it reaches 4,000 to 4,500 m from its base. The Pico de Orizaba is composed of a primitive stratovolcano raised by a recent summit cone. It has been built by three very distinct volcanic and magmatic phases.

1. The first one, probably discontinuous effusive activity, lasted more than one million years. It is mainly composed of two pyroxenes-andesites with scarce associated basaltic and dacitic lava-flows. Amphibole is an accessory mineral in most differentiated lavas. On the eastern flank, numerous massive and autobrecciated lava-flows pass outward into thick conglomeratic formations. This effusive phase has built a primitive central volcano and a parasitic cone: the Sierra Negra.
2. The second phase is of short duration — about 100,000 years or less — in comparison with the first period. It seems that this period began with the formation of a caldera followed by the extrusion of amphibole dacite domes and the overflow of viscous silica-rich (andesite to dacite) lava flows on the northern flank. An intense explosive activity develops:pelean nuées ardentes are associated with extrusion of the domes; numerous plinian eruptions leading to widespread dacitic pumiceous air-falls are produced by both the central and the adventive volcanoes. This sequence of events is interpreted as the progressive emptying of a superficial chamber containing differenciated magma. A rhyolite flow erupted during this phase.
3. The age of the recent phase is better defined. It started 13,000 years B.P. with the eruption of a dacitic ash-flow containing pumice and scoria-bombs. This was such an intense event that products were found 30 km S.E. of the summit, erasing the top of the former volcano and creating a large crater (4–5 km wide). The present cone, of 1,400–1,500 m elevation, grew in this crater. During a period of 7,000 to 8,000 years, the new stratovolcano experienced various important pyroclastic eruptions with a cycle of the order of 1,000 to 1,500 years. The pyroclastic flows (ash, pumice, and bombs) associated with air-fall deposits are of Saint-Vincent type. They present an heterogeneous dacitic and andesitic magma. The dacitic component is similar to previous differenciated materials. On the other hand, the andesitic magma appears somewhat similar to lava-flows from morphologically young cones erupted outside the central vent system. This eruptive cycle can be interpreted as the result of reoccurring injections of deep basic magma within the crustal chamber. For the last 5,000 years the activity of the modern Pico de Orizaba has again been essentially effusive (andesites) with periodic plinian eruptions.

     

Zum Umweltverhalten von Fluortensiden. Teil 3: Reinigung der industriellen Abwässer

Four fluorotensides which are used mainly industrially are investigated with respect to their removability from waters. Since, in general, fluorotensides are difficult to remove or not at all removable biochemically, the effects of chemical or physicochemical treatment processes are tested. As the results represented in pictures and tables show, different modes of behaviour can be recognized with respect to the respective purification effect for the investigated fluorotensides, partly among them. Flocculation with Al- and Fe-salts as well as chlorination and ozonization show only partial effects. But all the investigated fluorotensides can be adsorptively eliminated by means of powder or granular active charcoal and adsorbent resin Wofatit EA₆₀.     

Comparison of trends in stream water quality

A method is described for assessing the strength of evidence for differences in the trends in chemical concentrations in stream water between catchments. A smoothing spline technique is used to model changes in water quality as a result of changes in flow rates, seasonal effects and an underlying trend. The method involves fitting the model twice, once with the underlying trends constrained to be identical for each river and once with the trends unconstrained. Statistical properties are assessed by simulation methods that allow for the autocorrelation in the residuals from the unconstrained fit. The method is applied to data from two streams in the Balquhidder catchments in the Highlands of Scotland and to data from the Dee, Don and Ythan rivers in the north‐east of Scotland. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coseismic and other short-term strain changes recorded with Sacks-Evertson strainmeters in a deep mine, South Africa

Summary. During 1977 March and April, three Sacks-Evertson borehole dilatometers were installed at the ends of boreholes drilled into the sidewall of an experimental tunnel at a depth of 3.1 km in the ERPM gold mine near Johannesburg. In the following year coseismic strain changes ranging from 5 ± 10⁻¹⁰ to values exceeding 5 ± 10⁻⁶ were recorded for hundreds of mine tremors in the magnitude range -1 to 3.7 and at hypocentral distances of 50 m to about 2 km. Hypocentral coordinates and magnitudes were determined from seismograms recorded from an underground array of geophones. Amplitudes and polarities of the coseismic strain steps are generally in excellent agreement with theoretical expectations based on point-source dislocation theory; specifically, the strain steps are proportional to the seismic moment divided by the cube of hypocentral distance. At a strain level of 5 ± 10⁻⁹ or greater the tremors do not appear to be preceded by any short-term indications of instability even for tremors producing coseismic steps greater than 5 ± 10⁻⁶ and for which the strainmeters were within a source radius of the hypocentre. Continuous strain changes observed at the times when the mine excavation, at a distance of about 100 m, is extended are in good agreement with calculated changes based on the theory of elasticity. A similar calculation is consistent with post-seismic strain changes observed to follow some of the closer tremors. These post-seismic strains show a logarithmic dependence on time following the tremor and appear to be due to the interaction of a tremor with the adjacent mine excavation rather than to deformation within the actual seismic source region.