GIS-based analysis of the Stream Length-Gradient Index for evaluating effects of active tectonics: a case study of Enfidha (North-East of Tunisia)

Our study aims at calculating morphometric indices through the recourse to the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and its attributes (hydrographic networks, watersheds, and reliefs). This quantitative measurement is used for the morphotectonical analysis of the Enfidha area (North-East of Tunisia) in the GIS environment and statistical platform. The Enfidha area is selected to analyze and identify neotectonic morphostructures on basis of the morphological evolution of the landscape. The coastal Enfidha plain is part of the Tunisian Sahel that is marked by its instability and frequent earthquakes that prove the presence of the recent deformation and active subsurface faults. This morphometric modeling in the geological investigation area reflects the morphotectonic spatial evolution in the Quaternary basins areas. Stream length (SL) proposed by Hack (1973) and denominated by Etchebehere et al. (2004) Revista do Instituto de Geociências USP, Série Científica, São Paulo 4(2):43–56 as the RDE index (Relation Declivity Extension) was used for application in the studies of neotectonic approach. RDE index is one of the morphotectonical indices that designates the tectonics anomalies in rivers. The variability in (RDE) values can indicate both a lithology resistance towards erosion and major active subsurface faults or low slope. Our geostatistical method is required to obtain RDE index maps based on lithological filtrations and value interpolations which are calculated in a drainage line network. This method calculates, measures, and validates spatial distribution of hack RDE index through a high statistical accuracy in a quantitative anomalies study. The RDE anomaly maps of the study area mirror the concurrence between anomaly zones, major active subsurface E-W faults, and local geological discontinuities related to neotectonical activities that affect the hydrographic network. This study proves that the RDE index can be especially used to detect the influence of active large-scale faults on the landscape evolution.     

High precision triple oxygen isotope composition of small size urban micrometeorites indicating constant influx composition in the early geologic past

In this study, we present a method for high precision Δ′¹⁷O (Δ′¹⁷O_RL = ln(δ¹⁷O + 1) – λ_RL ln(δ¹⁸O + 1)) analysis of small mass silicate and oxide materials. The analyses were conducted by laser fluorination in combination with gas chromatography and continuous flow isotope ratio monitoring gas spectrometry. We could analyze the oxygen isotope composition of samples down to 1 μg, which corresponded to about 13 nmol O₂. The analytical error (we report the 1σ external reproducibility of a single analysis) in δ¹⁸O increases with decreasing sample sizes from ~0.2‰ for ~20 μg samples to ~0.9‰ for 1 μg samples. For Δ′¹⁷O, we achieved an external reproducibility of 0.04‰ for a sample mass range between 1 and 27 μg. The uncertainty in Δ′¹⁷O is smaller than the uncertainty in δ¹⁸O due to the correlated errors in δ¹⁷O and δ¹⁸O. We applied the method to urban micrometeorites, that is, small meteorites (<2 mm) that were sampled from a rooftop in Berlin, Germany. A total of 10 melted micrometeorites (S-type cosmic spherules, masses between 11 and 22 μg) were analyzed. The oxygen isotope compositions are comparable to that of modern Antarctic collections, indicating that the urban micrometeorites sample the same population. No indication for terrestrial weathering had been identified in the studied set of urban micrometeorites making them suitable materials for the study of micrometeorite origins.     

A 16-ka δ18O record of lacustrine sugar biomarkers from the High Himalaya reflects Indian Summer Monsoon variability

We investigated a late glacial–Holocene lacustrine sediment archive located at 4,050 m a.s.l. in the small carbonate-free catchment of Lake Panch Pokhari, Helambu Himal, Nepal. A δ¹⁸O sugar biomarker record was established by applying novel compound-specific δ¹⁸O analysis of plant sugar biomarkers (Zech and Glaser in Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 23:3522–3532, 2009). This method overcomes analytical challenges such as extraction and purification faced by previous methods aimed at using δ¹⁸O of aquatic cellulose as a paleoclimate proxy. The δ¹⁸O results for sugar biomarkers arabinose, xylose and fucose agree well and reveal a pronounced trend towards lower δ¹⁸O values during the deglaciation and the onset of the Bølling/Allerød interstadial. By contrast, the period of the Younger Dryas is characterized by higher δ¹⁸O values. The early Holocene again reveals lower δ¹⁸O values. We suggest that our lacustrine δ¹⁸O record reflects coupled hydrological and thermal control. It is strongly related to changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-precipitation and resembles the δ¹⁸O records of Asian speleothems. With respect to the ‘amount effect,’ the record is interpreted as reflecting the Indian Summer Monsoon intensity. The precipitation signal is, however, amplified in our record by evaporative ¹⁸O enrichment that is controlled by the ratio of precipitation to evaporation. We suggest that our δ¹⁸O record reflects the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon, which was strong during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial and early Holocene, but weak during the Younger Dryas stadial. This interpretation is corroborated by a pollen-based index for Lake Panch Pokhari that estimated the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon versus the strength of the Westerlies. Millennial-scale synchronicity with the Greenland δ¹⁸O temperature records highlights the previously suggested strong teleconnections between the Asian Monsoon system and North Atlantic climate variability.     

On the estimation of the maximum depth of investigation of transient electromagnetic soundings: the case of the Vizcaino transect,Mexico

We test an approach proposed in the literature for estimating the maximum depth of investigation (MDI) of in-loop transient electromagnetic soundings (TEM) with data from the Vizcaino transect, a profile of 38 TEM soundings crossing the Baja California peninsula. The validity of this approach is confirmed by comparing the MDI with the deepest interface of 16 stratified models. In these soundings, all located over the Vizcaino basin, the measured data are not affected by induced polarization. The models indicate the presence of a dipping conductor interpreted as a zone of seawater intrusion with a large lateral extension of over 70 km. The remaining 22 soundings, located over igneous and metamorphic rocks, show reversals in the voltage polarity, indicating the presence of induced polarization effects. The layered Cole-Cole models for these soundings suggest a significant decrease in the MDI. This is confirmed by analyzing the depth behavior of the subsurface current densities. We further analyze the noise level of a data set comprising close to 2000 late-time voltages of about 400 TEM sites acquired in northwestern Mexico. No difference was found between the stationary noise levels of winter and summer, presumably because near thunderstorms are practically absent in this part of Mexico.     

On the probability of exceeding a given river flow threshold

ABSTRACT

To obtain estimates of the probability that a river flow will exceed a given threshold at time t + 1, given the flow value at time t, two stochastic models are considered: a filtered Poisson process and a diffusion process with jumps. Estimates derived from linear regression are also considered. The model parameters are assumed to depend on the flow value. An application to the Delaware River is presented.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Chasing a complete understanding of the triggering mechanisms of a large rapidly evolving rockslide

Rockslides in alpine areas can reach large volumes and, owing to their position along slopes, can either undergo large and rapid evolution originating large rock avalanches or can decelerate and stabilize. As a consequence, in particular when located within large deep-seated deformations, this type of instability requires accurate observation and monitoring. In this paper, the case study of the La Saxe rockslide (ca. 8 × 10⁶ m³), located within a deep-seated deformation, undergoing a major phase of acceleration in the last decade and exposing the valley bottom to a high risk, is discussed. To reach a more complete understanding of the process, in the last 3 years, an intense investigation program has been developed. Boreholes have been drilled, logged, and instrumented (open-pipe piezometers, borehole wire extensometers, inclinometric casings) to assess the landslide volume, the rate of displacement at depth, and the water pressure. Displacement monitoring has been undertaken with optical targets, a GPS network, a ground-based interferometer, and four differential multi-parametric borehole probes. A clear seasonal acceleration is observed related to snow melting periods. Deep displacements are clearly localized at specific depths. The analysis of the piezometric and snowmelt data and the calibration of a 1D block model allows the forecast of the expected displacements. To this purpose, a 1D pseudo-dynamic visco-plastic approach, based on Perzyna’s theory, has been developed. The viscous nucleus has been assumed to be bi-linear: in one case, irreversible deformations develop uniquely for positive yield function values; in a more general case, visco-plastic deformations develop even for negative values. The model has been calibrated and subsequently validated on a long temporal series of monitoring data, and it seems reliable for simulating the in situ data. A 3D simplified approach is suggested by subdividing the landslide mass into distinct interacting blocks.     

A reduced-order model for Monte Carlo simulations of stochastic groundwater flow

We explore the ability of the greedy algorithm to serve as an effective tool for the construction of reduced-order models for the solution of fully saturated groundwater flow in the presence of randomly distributed transmissivities. The use of a reduced model is particularly appealing in the context of numerical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations that are typically performed, e.g., within environmental risk assessment protocols. In this context, model order reduction techniques enable one to construct a surrogate model to reduce the computational burden associated with the solution of the partial differential equation governing the evolution of the system. These techniques approximate the model solution with a linear combination of spatially distributed basis functions calculated from a small set of full model simulations. The number and the spatial behavior of these basis functions determine the computational efficiency of the reduced model and the accuracy of the approximated solution. The greedy algorithm provides a deterministic procedure to select the basis functions and build the reduced-order model. Starting from a single basis function, the algorithm enriches the set of basis functions until the largest error between the full and the reduced model solutions is lower than a predefined tolerance. The comparison between the standard MC and the reduced-order approach is performed through a two-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow scenario in the presence of a uniform (in the mean) hydraulic head gradient. The natural logarithm of the aquifer transmissivity is modeled as a second-order stationary Gaussian random field. The accuracy of the reduced basis model is assessed as a function of the correlation scale and variance of the log-transmissivity. We explore the performance of the reduced model in terms of the number of iterations of the greedy algorithm and selected metrics quantifying the discrepancy between the sample distributions of hydraulic heads computed with the full and the reduced model. Our results show that the reduced model is accurate and is highly efficient in the presence of a small variance and/or a large correlation length of the log-transmissivity field. The flow scenarios associated with large variances and small correlation lengths require an increased number of basis functions to accurately describe the collection of the MC solutions, thus reducing significantly the computational advantages associated with the reduced model.     

Thermal and irradiation history of lunar meteorite Dhofar 280

Dhofar 280 recorded a complex history on the Moon revealed by high‐resolution ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar dating. Thermal resetting occurred less than 1 Ga ago, and the rock was exposed to several impact events before and afterwards. The cosmic ray exposure (CRE) age spectrum indicates a 400 ± 40 Ma CRE on the lunar surface. A unique feature of this lunar sample is a partial loss of cosmogenic ³⁸Ar, resulting in a (low‐temperature) CRE age plateau of about 1 Ma. This was likely caused by the same recent impact event that reset the (low‐temperature) ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar age spectrum and preceded the short transit phase to Earth of ≤1 Ma. Dhofar 280 may be derived from KREEP‐rich lunar frontside terrains, possibly associated with the Copernicus crater or with a recent impact event on the deposits of the South Pole–Aitken basin. Although Dhofar 280 is paired with Dhofar 081, their irradiation and thermal histories on the Moon were different. An important trapped Ar component in Dhofar 280 is “orphan” Ar with a low ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio. It is apparently a mixture of two components, one endmember with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar = 17.5 ± 0.2 and a second less well‐constrained endmember with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ≤10. The presence of two endmembers of trapped Ar, their compositions, and the breccia ages seem to be incompatible with a previously suggested correlation between age or antiquity and the (⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)_trapped ratio (Eugster et al. 2001; Joy et al. 2011a). Alternatively, “orphan” Ar of this impact melt breccia may have an impact origin.