A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

The ages of pre-main-sequence stars

The position of pre-main-sequence or protostars in the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram is often used to determine their mass and age by comparison with pre-main-sequence evolution tracks. On the assumption that the stellar models are accurate, we demonstrate that, if the metallicity is known, the mass obtained is a good estimate. However, the age determination can be very misleading, because it is significantly (generally different by a factor of 2 to 5) dependent on the accretion rate and, for ages less than about 10⁶ yr, the initial state of the star. We present a number of accreting protostellar tracks that can be used to determine age if the initial conditions can be determined and the underlying accretion rate has been constant in the past. Because of the balance established between the Kelvin–Helmholtz, contraction time-scale and the accretion time-scale, a pre-main-sequence star remembers its accretion history. Knowledge of the current accretion rate, together with an HR-diagram position, gives information about the rate of accretion in the past, but does not necessarily improve any age estimate. We do not claim that ages obtained by comparison with these particular accreting tracks are likely to be any more reliable than those from comparisons with non-accreting tracks. Instead, we stress the unreliability of any such comparisons, and use the disparities between various tracks to estimate the likely errors in age and mass estimates. We also show how a set of coeval accreting objects do not appear coeval when compared with non-accreting tracks. Instead, accreting pre-main-sequence stars of around a solar mass are likely to appear older than those of either smaller or larger mass.     

Adaptations for scavenging by three diverse bathyla species, Eptatretus stouti, Neptunea amianta and Orchomene obtusus

Many deep-sea animals derive part of their nutrition from rare and unpredictable food falls. However, traits that allow organisms inhabiting the sea floor to exploit carrion are poorly understood. We found in laboratory experiments that hagfish (Eptatretus stouti), gastropods (Neptunea amianta) and amphipods (Orchomene obtusus) survived extended periods of starvation, in some cases for more than a year. When exposed to odors emitted from carrion, most individuals of E. stouti and O. obtusus began searching for food within seconds, whereas none responded to the scent of the live prey. In contrast, the slow crawling N. amianta readily consumed carrion but showed no apparent response to any odor solutions tested. Because more motile animals exhibited lower thresholds for response to signal molecules, sensitivity to chemical cues appears related to species mobility. Hagfish were also found to defend carrion from some competitors by releasing slime when feeding. Though varying dramatically in size, morphology, locomotive ability, and phylogeny, these three species all possess traits well suited for a scavenging lifestyle.     

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.     

Relative quantification of wind erosion in argan woodlands in the Souss Basin,Morocco

The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall. To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone-generated digital elevation model and quantified wind-erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m^–2 h^–1), while older ploughed areas with a re-established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m^–2 h^–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m^–2 h^–1). Material collected from tree-shaded areas (933 g m^–2 h^–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment-covered surfaces (301 g m^–2 h^–1). The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land-use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Equivalent-linear site response analysis on the site of the historical Trakošćan Castle,Croatia, using HVSR method

This paper presents a major extension of seismic vulnerability research project on the site of Trako??an Castle based on the initial horizontal-to-vertical-spectral-ratio (HVSR) results from Stanko et al. (2016). The estimated HVSR site frequencies and HV amplification at Trako??an Castle can only be used as an indication of the initial soil site frequency and amplification, so-called natural soil model, corresponding to the subsoil profile without the influence of an earthquake. The equivalent-linear (EQL) site response analysis has been carried out for different earthquake scenarios for a maximum input rock peak ground acceleration (PGA_ROCK) that corresponds to return periods of 95 (0.08 g), 475 (0.18 g) and 1000 years (0.31 g). The aim of the research is to evaluate structural seismic design responses and to determine type and degree of damage caused by local site effect, which is the result of an alluvial basin and topographic influences. The main objective of this research is the formation of local microseismic zones based on an EQL analysis: surface spectral acceleration and amplification maps at the predominant frequency. Based on the HVSR frequency response of the core structure of Trako??an Castle and the Tower itself (fundamental and higher frequency modes), maps of surface spectral acceleration and soil amplification at different frequencies (3, 5 and 10 Hz) are developed for different input PGA_ROCK levels (0.08, 0.18 and 0.31 g) to evaluate seismic response of the Castle. Observed amplifications are correlated with ground motion polarization and directionality of the ground motion from the alluvial basin to the hilltop. Shortening of predominant frequencies (lengthening of the period), particularly in the alluvial basin, has been observed with higher input PGA_ROCK in the EQL analysis. This effect is not manifested in the Trako??an hill, and predominant frequencies match HVSR frequencies. The use of certain geophysical survey methods at historical sites is a big problem, because terrain features (e.g. steep hills, mountains, ridges, slopes, cliffs) create lack of space and make it impossible to carry out geophysical investigation. Microtremor measurements at historical sites can overcome this limitation and provide local seismic response and vulnerability behaviour of historical monuments without destroying their authenticity. Also, computational modelling can greatly improve the results. The EQL site response analysis on the site of Trako??an Castle has confirmed and improved the results of seismic response and vulnerability based on HVSR method.