Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Generation of a crust-mantle magma mixture: magma sources and contamination at Cerro Panizos,central Andes

 Cerro Panizos, a large caldera in the central Andes Mountains, produced two large dacitic ignimbrites at 7.9 Ma and 6.7 Ma and many andesitic and dacitic lava flows and domes. The older rhyodacitic Cienago Ignimbrite represents the most silicic magma erupted by the system. The younger, much larger volume dacitic Cerro Panizos Ignimbrite is very crystal-rich, containing up to 50% biotite, plagioclase, and quartz crystals in the pumice. It is weakly zoned, with most of the zoning apparent between two main cooling units. Major and most trace elements show little variation through the Cerro Panizos Ignimbrite, but the small range of composition is consistent with typical fractionation trends. Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic ratios are very “crustal”, with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of 0.711 to 0.715, ɛ_Nd values of –7.5 to –10.2, and nearly invariant Pb isotopic ratios (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.85, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.67, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.80). The limited zonation observed in the Cerro Panizos Ignimbrite is explained by impeded crystal settling due to high crystal content. The magma body was a crystal-liquid mush before ascent to the pre-eruption crustal levels. Crystals formed, but did not separate easily from the magma. Limited fractionation of plagioclase and biotite may have occurred, but the composition was largely controlled by lower crustal MASH processes. AFC modeling shows that the Cerro Panizos magmas resulted from a mixture of roughly equal proportions of late Miocene mantle-derived basalts and melts from ∼1.0 Ga (Grenville age) lower crust. This occurred in a MASH zone in the lower crust, and set the crustal isotopic ratios observed in the Cerro Panizos magmas. The great thickening of the crust beneath the central Andes Mountains sent upper and middle crustal rock types to lower crustal (and deeper) depths, and this explains the “upper crustal” isotopic signatures of the Cerro Panizos rocks. Minor upper crustal assimilation of early Miocene volcanic or subvolcanic rocks produced much of the isotopic variation seen in the system. The nearly invariant high Pb isotopic values and high Pb concentrations indicate that Pb came almost entirely from the crustal source, and was little altered by any subsequent upper crustal assimilation. This Pb signature is isotopically similar to that of the southern Bolivian Tin Belt, suggesting a widely distributed Pb source. The great difference between compositions of Miocene and Quaternary central Andean volcanic rocks is explained by crustal thickening in early Miocene time leading to abundant lower crustal water and associated fluxed melting during the time of the earlier eruptions. The lower crust dried out considerably by Quaternary time, so less crustal component is present. Received: 22 December 1994 / Accepted: 13 September 1995     

Mercury mobility at the Carson River Superfund Site, west-central Nevada, USA: Interpretation of mercury speciation data in mill tailings, soils, and sediments

The Carson River Superfund Site in west-central Nevada is an area of Hg-contaminated soil, sediment, water, air, and biola resulting from the amalgamation milling of Ag-Au ores of the Comstock lode worked approximately a century ago. In order to develop an understanding of the behavior, transport, and fate of Hg at this site, a technique was developed to estimate the proportions of total, elemental, exchangeable, organic, and sulfide Hg in soils, sediments, and tailings.Results of this analysis performed on active Carson River sediments indicate that Hg is selectively dissolved out of Hg-Au amalgam particles and subsequently adsorbed to fine-grained sediments which are then deposited in downstream, low-energy reaches of the Carson River and Labontan Reservoir. In the relatively more-reducing environment of the reservoir Hg appears to be converted, in large part, to relatively-insoluble HgS.The original elemental form of Hg released to the environment is the chemical form which is still dominant in most highly-contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings. Deeper, more-reducing soil horizons, however, appear to fix a significant portion of the Hg as HgS, analogous to the Lahontan Reservoir example described above. This fixation as HgS is documented to be largely limited to higher-sulfur areas where sulfide minerals from the Comstock ores increase the total sulfur concentrations of contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings.     

Plio-pleistocene volcanism in the Andean Cordillera of Central Chile (33∘ – 40∘ S. L.)

Recent field studies in the Andean Cordillera of Central Chile (33–40 S. L.) have shown a widespread distribution around the Chile-Argentina border of pliopleistocene volcanic and pyroclastic flow (5-1 m. y. K/Ar). The older ages are found in Rio Blanco (Santiago) area and the younger in the Cola de Zorro area. They cover horizontal to sub-horizontally, with strong unconformity their meso-cenozoic basement.In the Rio Blanco area the most silicic rocks are dactic and rhyolitic ignimbrites and lava flows. They are similar to the Rhyolitic Formation (Zeil andPichler, 1967) of northern Chile.South of 36 S. L. most of the rocks are calcalkaline basalts and andesites except for the samples from the Pino Hachado area, which plot nearRittman's alkaline field. Chemical inhomogenety of the plio-pleistocene volcanic rocks is thus present in the Andes of Central Chile.

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Zusammenfassung Neue Arbeiten über die Geologie der Cordillera de los Andes im zentralen Abschnitt Chiles (33–40 S) haben eine enorme Verbreitung von plio/pleistozänen Vulkaniten (5-1 m. a.) vor allem in der Grenzregion mit Argentinien ergeben. Die höheren Alter fand man im Gebiet von Rio Blanco (Santiago) und die jüngsten im Gebiet von Cola de Zorro.Die Vulkanite bedecken mit einer horizontalen bis subhorizontalen Verbreitung und mit einer scharfen Diskordanz alle Gesteinsserien des Mesozoikums und Känozoikums.Im Gebiet von Rio Blanco handelt es sich um Ignimbrite rhyolitischer und dacitischer Zusammensetzung. Die kieselsäurereichsten Proben sind ähnlich den Gesteinen der Rhyolit-Formation vonZeil &Pichler (1967) in Nordchile.Südlich von 36 S hat die Mehrheit der Proben eine andesitische und basaltische Zusammensetzung. Es sind kalkalkaline Gesteine mit Ausnahme der Proben von Pino Hachado, die einen starken alkalinen Trend nach dem Diagramm vonRittmann haben. Auf diese Weise ergibt sich eine chemische Inhomogenität bei den plio/pleistozänen Vulkaniten von Zentralchile.

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Resumen Los más recientes trabajos de geología de campo en la Cordillera de los Andes de Chile Central (33–40 L. S.) han evidenciado enormes extensiones de rocas volcánicas pliopleistocénicas (5-1 m. a.) sobre todo en el área limítrofe con Argentina. Las mayores edades fueron encontradas en el area de Rio Blanco (Santiago) y las más jóvenes en el area de Cola de Zorro.Las rocas volcánicas plio-pleistocénicas cubren con disposición horizontal a subhorizontal y con fuerte discordancia a todas las rocas subyacentes del Meso y Cenozoico.En el area de Río Blanco las rocas son ignimbritas de composición riolítica a dacítica y corresponden a las muestras más silícicas similar a rocas de la Formación Riolítica del norte de Chile deZeil yPichler (1967).Al sur del paralelo 36 S la mayoría de las muestras son de composición andesítica y basáltica de naturaleza calcoalcalina excepto las muestras de Pino Hachado que presentan fuerte afînidad alcalina según el diagrama deRittmann. De esta manera se muestra que existe inhomogeneidad química en las rocas volcánicas plios-pleistocénicas de Chile Central.

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Subsoil zoning of Mexico City using qualitative relationships between soil strength and electrical resistivity

Summary The seismic events occurring on 19 and 20 September 1985, whose epicentre was located in the coastal region of Michoacan, Mexico, produced tremendous damage in Mexico City. As a result of these losses the civil authorities of the city decided to study and evaluate the mechanical characteristics of the subsoil. To achieve this, it was necessary to drill several boreholes to obtain needed geophysical and geotechnical information. The geophysical method of electrical resistivity was the most appropriate to the research. This method enabled us to understand the structure and soil characteristics of the Mexican Valley.     

Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate

We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer. Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study.     

Nonparametric analysis of high wind speed data

In this paper, nonparametric curve estimation methods are applied to analyze time series of wind speeds, focusing on the extreme events exceeding a chosen threshold. Classical parametric statistical approaches in this context consist in fitting a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the tail of the empirical cumulative distribution, using maximum likelihood or the method of the moments to estimate the parameters of this distribution. Additionally, confidence intervals are usually computed to assess the uncertainty of the estimates. Nonparametric methods to estimate directly some quantities of interest, such as the probability of exceedance, the quantiles or return levels, or the return periods, are proposed. Moreover, bootstrap techniques are used to develop pointwise and simultaneous confidence intervals for these functions. The proposed models are applied to wind speed data in the Gulf Coast of US, comparing the results with those using the GPD approach, by means of a split-sample test. Results show that nonparametric methods are competitive with respect to the standard GPD approximations. The study is completed generating synthetic data sets and comparing the behavior of the parametric and the nonparametric estimates in this framework.