Physically-based landslide susceptibility analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in a tropical mountain basin

ABSTRACT

Physically-based distributed models are implemented for landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment around the world. Probabilistic methodologies are considered appropriate to study and quantify the uncertainties derived from the input parameters of these models. In this paper, three sets of Monte Carlo simulations, each one with 10,000 iterations, were applied for a slope stability analysis in a small basin of Envigado (Colombia), using the TRIGRS model, to characterise the uncertainty in the landslide assessment. Different parameters to determine the minimum number of realizations required to ensure a small variation in the failure probability were proposed and analyzed. The quality of the landslide susceptibility assessment was studied. Unexpected and probably erroneous results that may be common in the maps generated using this and other similar methodologies were identified and explained. Additionally, the distribution of the factor of safety was calculated for different grid cells of the basin, showing that the probability density function with the best adjustment to the frequency histogram of the factor of safety can vary between grid cells. The assumption of a normal distribution for the factor of safety would be inappropriate and would lead to miscalculations in this case study.     

基于空间语义角色的自然语言空间概念提取

根据空间信息的特点,从定义的空间语义角色入手,通过语义角色标注、短语识别以及概念模式匹配等手段,具体分析了自然语言中的空间实体、实体间空间关系以及空间过程的表达与提取方法。     

Recognition of ancient carbonate wind deposits: lessons from a modern analogue, Chrissi Island, Crete

Carbonate aeolian deposits are common along arid to semiarid, wind-exposed, present-day coastlines bordered by productive carbonate ramps. Lithified carbonate dunes (aeolianites) have been described around the world in marine terraces of Quaternary age, but these deposits have seldom been identified in the Pre-Quaternary record. Several authors have suggested that this scarcity reflects that these deposits form and are preserved only during icehouse periods characterized by high-amplitude sea-level changes. Others [e.g. McKee and Ward Carbonate Depositional Environments (1983) , AAPG Memoirs, Vol. 33, pp. 131–170] suggest that the scarcity of aeolianites in the Pre-Quaternary record could reflect the ‘great difficulty in recognising wind blown carbonate deposits and in differentiating between them [aeolianites] and other carbonate sands of nearshore environments’. It has been considered that carbonate shoreface/foreshore deposits are very difficult to discriminate petrographically from backshore deposits. This petrographic study of recent sediments from the shoreface to backshore along the northern coast of Chrissi Island, Crete, confirms that carbonate aeolian sands can be very easily misinterpreted as shoreface deposits. Textural examination of thin sections by image analysis techniques indicates, however, that grain orientation patterns differ between facies. Shoreface deposits exhibit a unimodal distribution of grain orientation (flat rose diagram), whereas backshore deposits show a tendency towards a bimodal distribution with a significant proportion of vertical grains. This observation has been confirmed in Pleistocene aeolianites from Tunisia and Western Australia. Grain verticality thus seems to be a reliable criterion for discriminating wind-lain carbonate bodies from shoreface deposits. Vertical grains in aeolian carbonate deposits could reflect gravity effects (e.g. reorientation of grains because of meteoric water percolation and air pull-up). Laboratory experiments conducted on carbonate sands under the action of percolating waters confirm this hypothesis. This reorganization process is preferentially developed in recently deposited and loosely packed sands resulting from grainfall and/or grainflow. In addition, this suggests that the presence of vertical grain orientation might be an indicator of the frequency and intensity of rainfalls during deposition.     

阿司匹林的合成条件研究

以水杨酸和醋酐为原料经O-酰化反应合成阿司匹林，比较了三氯化铝、三氯化铋和无水碳酸钠三种不同催化剂以及反应条件对合成的影响，找到了最佳催化剂和最佳反应务件，即以三氯化铝为催化剂，其用量为水杨酸的2％，水杨酸与醋酐的摩尔比为1：2，反应时间为30min，回流温度为85℃左右，阿司匹林产率可迭72．6％。实验表明该催化剂催化效果好．不污染环境，是一种环境友好的催化剂。同时，本法简单、快速、经济、无污染，产品质量好，适于工业化生产。     

Rural settlements in transition – agricultural and countryside crisis in the Central-Eastern Europe

The paper presents a synthesis of French and Bulgarian researches on the transition in villages in Central Eastern Europe. The main points focus on three questions, the rural unemployment and the crisis of small towns, the demographical deterioration, the new relations between villages and towns. A generalization of the rural central places' visual change and metaphors is proposed, completed by a typology of rural settlements. The question of the rural administrative divisions is discussed, with its implication for the future. As a whole the paper gives a contribution to the problematic of the likely development in the rural evolution pattern throughout Europe. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A High-K, Mantle Derived Plutonic Suite from 'Linga', near Arequipa (Peru)

The Linga Group consists of a suite of Cretaceous high-K calc-alkalinerocks intruded into 2?0 Ga old basement in S.E. Peru. The rocksrange in composition from gabbros, through diorites and grandioritesto granites. Microprobe, major and trace element and isotopedata suggest the suite evolved by fractional crystallization,with plagioclase as the dominant phase and with surprisinglylittle interaction with the pre-existing crust. The rocks yieldan Rb/Sr whole rock isochron of 68 ? 3 Ma with an initial Sr-isotoperatio 0.70516 ? 8, and from three Nd-isotope analyses initialNd = – 1?4 to – 2?0. ¹⁸ O increases from 5?0 permil in a gabbro to 7?0 per mil in a granite, and models arepresented which suggest that the suite evolved from parentalmagmas which had ¹⁸O = 5?8 to 6?0 per mil, 1.5 per cent K₂O,63 p.p.m. Rb, 582 p.p.m. Sr, 35 p.p.m. Ce, 0.38 p.p.m. Ta, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr= 0.7052, and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.51247. Trace element considerationsimply that these magmas contain contributions from incompatibleelement enriched upper mantle material and from a componentassociated with subduction. The latter is thought to reflectthe preferential mobilization of alkali and alkaline earth elementsby H₂O-rich fluids from the subducted slab, and preliminarycalculations indicate that it was responsible for {small tilde}45 per cent of the Sr and {small tilde} 80 per cent of the Kin the more primitive Linga rocks. However, the isotope datasuggest that while the fluids may be from the subducted slab,the elements in this component may also have been mobilizedfrom the overlying mantle wedge.     

A Chemical and Multi-Isotope Study of the Western Cape Olivine Melilitite Province, South Africa: Implications for the Sources of Kimberlites and the Origin of the HIMU Signature in Africa

We present major and trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb–Hf–Osisotopic data for the 76–58 Ma Western Cape melilititeprovince, an age-progressive magmatic lineation in which primitiveolivine melilitite intrusives and alkali basalt lavas have beenemplaced on the southwestern margin of South Africa. The magmasrange from alkali basalts with strong HIMU isotopic and traceelement affinities on the continental shelf to melilitites withkimberlite-like incompatible element compositions and EM 1 isotopicaffinities on thick Proterozoic lithosphere (i.e. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i= 0·7029–0·7043,