Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oxygen isotope speedometry in granulite facies garnet recording fluid/melt–rock interaction (Sør Rondane Mountains,East Antarctica)

In situ analysis of a garnet porphyroblast from a granulite facies gneiss from Sør Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica, reveals discontinuous step‐wise zoning in phosphorus and large δ¹⁸O variations from the phosphorus‐rich core to the phosphorus‐poor rim. The gradually decreasing profile of oxygen isotope from the core (δ¹⁸O = ~15‰) to the rim (δ¹⁸O = ~11‰) suggests that the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O zoning was originally step‐wise, and modified by diffusion after the garnet rim formation at ~800°C and 0.8 GPa. Fitting of the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O data to the diffusion equation constrains a duration of the high‐T event (~800°C) to c. 0.5–40 Ma after the garnet rim formation. The low δ¹⁸O value of the garnet rim, together with the previously reported low δ¹⁸O values in metacarbonates, indicates regional infiltration, probably along a detachment fault, of low δ¹⁸O fluid/melt possibly derived from meta‐mafic to ultramafic rocks.     

Basaltic and Solution Reference Materials for Iron,Copper and Zinc Isotope Measurements

Iron, Cu and Zn stable isotope systems are applied in constraining a variety of geochemical and environmental processes. Secondary reference materials have been developed by the Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (CAGS), in collaboration with other participating laboratories, comprising three solutions (CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn) and one basalt (CAGS‐Basalt). These materials exhibit sufficient homogeneity and stability for application in Fe, Cu and Zn isotopic ratio determinations. Reference values were determined by inter‐laboratory analytical comparisons involving up to eight participating laboratories employing MC‐ICP‐MS techniques, based on the unweighted means of submitted results. Isotopic compositions are reported in per mil notation, based on reference materials IRMM‐014 for Fe, NIST SRM 976 for Cu and IRMM‐3702 for Zn. Respective reference values of CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn solutions are as follows: δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.83 ± 0.07 and δ⁵⁷Fe = 1.20 ± 0.13, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.57 ± 0.06, and δ⁶⁶Zn = ?0.79 ± 0.12 and δ⁶⁸Zn = ?1.65 ± 0.24, respectively. Those of CAGS‐Basalt are δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.15 ± 0.07, δ⁵⁷Fe = 0.22 ± 0.10, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.12 ± 0.08, δ⁶⁶Zn = 0.17 ± 0.13, and δ⁶⁸Zn = 0.34 ± 0.26 (2s).     

Clinoform geometry,geomorphology, facies character and stratigraphic architecture of a sand‐rich subaqueous delta: Jurassic Sognefjord Formation,offshore Norway

The integration of core sedimentology, seismic stratigraphy and seismic geomorphology has enabled interpretation of delta‐scale (i.e. tens of metres high) subaqueous clinoforms in the upper Jurassic Sognefjord Formation of the Troll Field. Mud‐prone subaqueous deltas characterized by a compound clinoform morphology and sandy delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms are common in recent tide‐influenced, wave‐influenced and current‐influenced settings, but ancient examples are virtually unknown. The data presented help to fully comprehend the criteria for the recognition of other ancient delta‐scale subaqueous clinoforms, as well as refining the depositional model of the reservoir in the super‐giant Troll hydrocarbon field. Two 10 to 60 m thick, overall coarsening‐upward packages are distinguished in the lower Sognefjord Formation. Progressively higher energy, wave‐dominated or current‐dominated facies occur from the base to the top of each package. Each package corresponds to a set of seismically resolved, westerly dipping clinoforms, the bounding surfaces of which form the seismic ‘envelope’ of a clinoform set and the major marine flooding surfaces recognized in cores. The packages thicken westwards, until they reach a maximum where the clinoform ‘envelope’ rolls over to define a topset–foreset–toeset geometry. All clinoforms are consistently oriented sub‐parallel to the edge of the Horda Platform (N005–N030). In the eastern half of the field, individual foresets are relatively gently dipping (1° to 6°) and bound thin (10 to 30 m) clinothems. Core data indicate that these proximal clinothems are dominated by fine‐grained, hummocky cross‐stratified sandstones. Towards the west, clinoforms gradually become steeper (5° to 14°) and bound thicker (15 to 60 m) clinothems that comprise medium‐grained, cross‐bedded sandstones. Topsets are consistently well‐developed, except in the westernmost area. No seismic or sedimentological evidence of subaerial exposure is observed. Deposition created fully subaqueous, near‐linear clinoforms that prograded westwards across the Horda Platform. Subaqueous clinoforms were probably fed by a river outlet in the north‐east and sculpted by the action of currents sub‐parallel to the clinoform strike.     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Three dimensional numerical simulation of residential building on shrink–swell soils in response to climatic conditions

Shrink–swell soils can cause distresses in buildings, and every year, the economic loss associated with this problem is huge. This paper presents a comprehensive system for simulating the soil–foundation–building system and its response to daily weather conditions. Weather data include rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which are readily available from a local weather station or the Internet. These data are used to determine simulation flux boundary conditions. Different methods are proposed to simulate different boundary conditions: bare soil, trees, and vegetation. A coupled hydro‐mechanical stress analysis is used to simulate the volume change of shrink–swell soils due to both mechanical stress and water content variations. Coupled hydro‐mechanical stress‐jointed elements are used to simulate the interaction between the soil and the slab, and general shell elements are used to simulate structural behavior. All the models are combined into one finite element program to predict the entire system's behavior. This paper first described the theory for the simulations. A site in Arlington, Texas, is then selected to demonstrate the application of the proposed system. Simulation results are shown, and a comparison between measured and predicted movements for four footings in Arlington, Texas, over a 2‐year period is presented. Finally, a three‐dimensional simulation is made for a virtual residential building on shrink–swell soils to identify the influence of various factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

Empirical relationships between diversity of invertebrate communities and altitude in rivers: Application to biomonitoring

The relationships between the diversity of invertebrate communities and the altitude of sampling sites were analysed in 438 benthic samples, collected between 1982 and 1991, in 56 rivers of western Switzerland. Diversity, estimated from total number of taxa (genus or family) and from number of taxa intolerant of pollution, was positively correlated with increasing altitude. In contrast, density of human population and the level of organic pollution were negatively correlated with increasing altitude. Therefore, the upstream increase of invertebrate diversity was attributed to the decrease of human population which is the main source of organic pollution. In this study, altitude was used, instead of organic pollution, to predict diversity. Empirical relationships between diversity and altitude were applied to surveys of water quality to describe the general altitudinal pattern characteristic for each region and to single out anomalous sites and rivers. In addition, changes in the altitudinal patterns of diversity can be used to monitor the recovery of rivers from pollution.     

Effect of hysteretic smoothness on inelastic response spectra with constant‐ductility

This paper presents an efficient methodology for computing constant‐ductility inelastic response spectra. The computation of constant‐ductility spectra involves numerical root‐finding algorithms to find the strongest structure providing a desired ductility response. Smooth inelastic structural behavior is modeled using a first‐order nonlinear differential equation and the transient structural response is solved using an implicit algorithm requiring Newton iterations at each time step. For structural models with smooth hysteretic behavior (not piece‐wise linear), a simple root‐finding method involving a combination of hyperbolic fits, linear interpolation, and Newton's method converges upon the highest strength (conservative) solution with a small number of iterations. The effect of the hysteretic smoothness on the occurrence of multiple roots is examined for two near‐fault and two far‐fault earthquake records, and for two measures of ductility and for normalized hysteretic energy. The results indicate how the smoothness of the hysteretic behavior affects ductility demand and constant‐ductility response spectra. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.